Weight loss drugs profit insurers: WSJ: https://www.wsj.com/health/healthcare/ozempic-boom-is-an-opportunity-for-health-insurers-26ea9a42 . This article features convoluted argument by a non-expert on healthcare. Here is my rewrite of his conclusions. Health insurers make more money on the products they just administer (for example, employer-sponsored health plans) because their administration is a percentage of claims costs, which go up. They may lose money on their fully insured products, but that is temporary as they can raise prices at the annual renewal. And those insurers that own pharmacy benefit managers will likely profit from the new volume in weight loss patients.
US budget deficit at $1.7 trillion, a 23% jump from last year: https://www.aol.com/news/u-budget-deficit-jumps-23-200347044.html . While I don’t disagree with the numbers in this article, the analysis misses a huge factor. The deficit jumped by $325 billion ($1.7 trillion – $1.375 trillion). The increased interest cost is 0.90% times $33 trillion (the total debt), or $300 billion. Everything else therefore accounts for $25 billion. Also, this year’s interest cost increase is likely to be greater than $300 billion. Next …
Bond market inversion is rapidly reversing: We use Chairman Powell’s preferred measure, the 10 year yield minus the 2 year yield, which ended Friday at -16 basis points. That’s up significantly from the prior Friday, which was at -44 basis points. More: https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2023-10-20/marketmind-bond-squeeze-abates-as-middle-east-war-in-focus .
WSJ: The two axes move to control strategic materials: https://www.wsj.com/world/asia/china-tightens-its-chokehold-on-graphite-needed-for-ev-batteries-6cda0bc3 .
Thoughtful regulation of AI: WSJ: https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/government-role-developing-regulating-ai-d24b8074 .
WSJ: UAW foregoes additional walkouts next week: https://www.wsj.com/business/autos/uaw-leader-cites-progress-at-bargaining-table-forgoes-more-walkouts-6100cb61 . Both sides continue to be hurt by this strike.
Hamas releases two American hostages: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/10/20/hamas-releases-two-american-hostages-from-gaza . Everyone hopes this is a start toward freeing more hostages. Hamas apparently holds about 200 hostages kidnapped as part of their terrorist attack on October 7. The death toll in Israel from this conflict is over 1,600, while the death toll in Gaza is now over 4,000. WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/israel-evacuates-city-near-lebanon-border-as-it-hits-scores-of-targets-in-gaza-e9bf2468 .
WSJ: Background on Hamas: https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/hamass-gaza-chief-once-a-high-profile-prisoner-in-israel-is-now-a-dead-man-walking-c34e741a .
Hamas’ use of crypto: https://www.wsj.com/finance/why-hamas-uses-crypto-to-raise-money-b40597ec . The world is way behind in regulating crypto.
WSJ: US objectives in the Middle East: https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/the-goal-for-u-s-diplomacy-in-israel-first-a-cease-fire-then-peace-3a38eea1 . Sigh. So I began reading this article without noting the author, which is typically the way I read the Journal unless troubled by the headline. As I read, my sense was that the author is very well-informed, but some of the goals were quite unlikely to be achieved. So my question was, is the author Jewish? The goals seemed to me to be written from that perspective.
The author, Richard Haass, recently retired after 23 years as president of the Council on Foreign Relations, a US think tank. A former Rhodes Scholar, he has had a highly distinguished career in US foreign relations: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_N._Haass . But yes, he is Jewish.
I understand his comments about seeking a ceasefire and trying to cool things off in the Middle East. We are currently at risk of an all-out regional war there. However, Israel is not going to back off until Hamas is seriously crippled. Perhaps that is why we are seeing Israeli drone and missile strikes all over Gaza. Israel may be trying to take out Hamas’ leadership early in the campaign. However, someone has to govern Gaza and the existing tunnel network has to be eliminated.
My expectation is that Israel will attempt to invade and occupy Gaza, and relentlessly continue to try to behead the Hamas organization. This could lead to regional war, although this is not necessarily in the best interests of any of the regional players, including Iran. Israel has been wounded by this horrific attack, and they will not rest until security has been reestablished for their citizens.
WSJ: The growing threat from global terrorism: https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/gaza-fighting-risks-resurgence-of-terrorist-attacks-3661d77b .
The obstacles to an Israeli ground invasion: WSJ: https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/israel-gaza-invasion-urban-warfare-4d1052b6 . It’s coming, because there is no other way to annihilate Hamas. We expect significant Israeli casualties.
WSJ: Biden more popular in Israel than Netanyahu: https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/seeking-solace-after-oct-7-attack-many-israelis-view-biden-as-their-wartime-leader-31705e37 . However, he needs to run for president in the US …
WSJ: We think readers would like to hear about Matt Gaetz: https://www.wsj.com/politics/matt-gaetz-tore-the-house-gop-apart-he-isnt-sorry-c7a7646d . Ugh …
House GOP dumps Jordan as Speaker candidate: https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4264545-house-gop-not-backing-jim-jordan-speaker/ . This is absolutely not three-dimensional chess. It’s not even Nero fiddling while Rome burns. It’s more like Nero fiddling while his toga is on fire. The House GOP deserves full blame for this ridiculous circus.
The next round of the Speaker’s race: https://www.aol.com/running-house-speaker-republicans-aiming-211044691.html . As you know, in the first round Scalise outdrew Jordan but couldn’t gather 217 votes. In the next round, Jordan grabbed the reins and pissed everyone off. The GOP Caucus forced hm to withdraw. So is there a clear plan for the next round? How about 8 candidates, starting next Tuesday? Even if I was trying to draw up the most embarrassing process for the House GOP, I would never have come up with something this stupid.
WSJ: The GOP “reboots” the Speaker’s race: https://www.wsj.com/politics/jim-jordan-set-to-fall-short-again-in-third-speaker-vote-2c72ff5e . No. “Reboots” means you had an operating system in the first place.
Orange Julius screws up again: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/judge-threats-imprison-trump-biolat-rcna121403 . This of course could be a daily headline. OJ has already severely pissed off Judge Engoron. While the judge could send OJ to the clink for this, my expectation is the punishment will be little to none, most likely another tongue-lashing. However, if OJ messes up again, the judge will do something to “get his attention” for this contempt of court. UPDATE: The judge fined OJ $5,000. So this is a small punishment under the circumstances, but OJ is on notice that another screw-up will put his rear in lock-up. WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/us-news/trump-fined-for-violating-gag-order-in-new-york-civil-fraud-case-3dcd1019 .
Meanwhile, in Georgia they’re flipping like pancakes, as Kenneth Chesebro takes a plea deal: https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/20/politics/kenneth-chesebro-georgia-election-subversion/index.html . WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/us-news/law/kenneth-chesebro-accepts-plea-deal-in-trump-georgia-case-95294a3 . As we suggested/urged yesterday, Chesebro had an untenable legal position and was on the verge of a trial he would surely lose. Notice that he got an attractive deal (no jail time, relatively small financial penalties) in exchange for his testimony against the others. We now have 16 defendants and three flippers – those 16 are in very serious jeopardy now. The comments by the Chesebro and OJ lawyers that this has not hurt the remaining defendants are absurd.
Looking at the big picture here, Fani Willis now has a flipper from the “national” legal team (Powell) and the Georgia legal team (Chesebro). These two cover major parts of the conspiracy. The one part Willis lacks is a flipper from the White House. She’s been very smart in her leveraging so far. So I think her most desirable target to flip now is Mark Meadows. Meadows has previously been rumored as a potential flipper, and his effort to move the case to federal court failed. If Willis can get Meadows, who I suspect is open to a deal, I think her entire case is nearly airtight.
Judge Chutkan pauses limited gag order in the January 6 case to allow appeal: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/limited-gag-order-on-trump-in-2020-election-interference-case-paused/ . I disagree with Judge Chutkan; the order should have remained in force. The order protected the prosecutors and the court staff against personal, dangerous threats. No one has the right to make such threats. I hope the appellate court will reject this appeal quickly, and restore the protection of the gag order.
WSJ: We go nuts again and endanger Judge Chutkan: https://www.wsj.com/us-news/in-trump-federal-cases-its-a-tale-of-two-judges-79c8e073 . Once again, the Journal converts completely irresponsible behavior into “journalism”. The Journal simply accepts the OJ blather that Judge Cannon is highly respected while Judge Chutkan hates him. Judge Chutkan is highly experienced and sits on the DC Circuit, where rising judicial stars are placed for obvious reasons. Judge Cannon has little experience on the bench, was appointed by OJ to the judicial backwater (and the circuit of his residence) in South Florida, and has been reversed and criticized for her handling of this case by the Eleventh Circuit, which oversees her. Those are the facts, dammit.
OJ leads Biden in Emerson College poll: https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4265622-trump-leads-biden-builds-support-among-young-voters-poll/ . So it’s still over a year to the 2024 election. Also note that while OJ leads Joe by 2 percentage points, the poll’s margin of error is 2.4%. This s more properly described as a dead heat. However, RFK Jr.’s candidacy swings the race strongly to OJ: https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4268075-trump-leads-biden-rfk-jr-survey/ . Once people get to know RFK Jr., I doubt he will poll in double digits, let alone 19%. However, as readers know, I think OJ could win in one of two ways: Biden’s health fails, or there’s a viable third-party candidate.
Actors’ strike makes no progress toward resolution: https://www.aol.com/hollywood-actors-strike-nears-100th-165549714.html . We need new content. Otherwise, we’ll just get a steady stream of OJ, which doctors agree will cause severe diarrhea …