FDA approves Novavax COVID vaccine: https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2023-10-03/fda-authorizes-novavaxs-new-covid-19-vaccine-without-messenger-rna-technology . This vaccine does not use messenger RNA. As such, it may be acceptable to those skeptical to the new (and now proven) technology. WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/health/pharma/fda-authorizes-novavaxs-updated-covid-vaccine-96a88f49 .
Drugmakers negotiate Medicare drug prices: https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/medicare-drug-costs-drugmakers-agree-price-negotiations-biden-administ-rcna118510 . Yes, but they apparently have not dropped their lawsuits.
Breast cancer vaccine in human trials: https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/breast-cancer-vaccine-how-it-works-211833175.html .
Why are cancers increasing in young adults?: https://english.elpais.com/health/2023-09-30/why-cancer-is-rising-among-young-adults-tumors-in-people-under-50-have-increased-by-almost-80-in-three-decades.html .
J&J talc cancer verdict tossed: https://www.aol.com/news/court-tosses-223-8-million-135105224.html . As J&J is also suing one of the experts, we have not heard the end of this matter.
Kaiser strike looms: https://www.aol.com/news/huge-strike-could-happen-kaiser-100010855.html .
Are armadillos spreading leprosy?: https://www.aol.com/leprosy-spreading-domestically-us-experts-100108470.html .
Michigan school shooter parents to stand trial for involuntary manslaughter: https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/parents-stand-trial-2021-michigan-school-shooting-killed-103682962 . The obvious charge would be negligent homicide. Without knowing the details of Michigan law, I am guessing that involuntary manslaughter in Michigan requires foreseeability, and that was the basis of the appeal of the elevated charge.
WSJ: The auto strike continues and grows: https://www.wsj.com/business/autos/ford-gm-lay-off-about-500-factory-workers-as-uaw-strike-effects-ripple-out-15bf8fba . We are getting into the timeframe where pain increases significantly for each side with each passing day.
WSJ: Job switching drops: https://www.wsj.com/economy/jobs/americans-growing-reluctance-to-quit-their-jobs-in-five-charts-e72b58ce . More: https://www.wsj.com/economy/jobs/despite-economic-risks-companies-are-hanging-on-to-the-workers-they-have-69162183 .
Self-driving car runs over pedestrian hit by driver: https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/tech-news/driver-hits-pedestrian-pushing-path-self-driving-car-san-francisco-rcna118603 . The woman is in critical condition. WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/us-news/driverless-cruise-vehicle-pins-san-francisco-woman-causing-serious-injuries-7389c4ac .
Stock market falls as bond yields rise: https://apnews.com/article/stock-market-bonds-hong-evergrande-oil-c7bda0ee7c1bca979a201c45e3e4f891 . Sigh. This writer is not that careful, as he states the S&P 500 has dropped over 40% since late July. Obviously, no. It has dropped over 400 points, which is about a 9% decrease. But he does make an accurate if appalling statement. Stocks are falling because “investors are increasingly taking the Fed at its word”. As I have repeated frequently, the Fed has made its expected move clear in advance and then made the expected move at its next meeting, time after time, for the last 18 months. The market has just refused to listen, at its peril.
Last week, I discussed inversion in some depth, saying that by definition inversion has to be a temporary condition, and it has dropped from 102 basis points to 52 in just two months. As of today, it has dropped another 21 basis points, to 31. As I said last week, long-term bond holders had already suffered serious pain, and would suffer more. That is still the case, although the recent rapidity of the unwind has been brutal. Presumably this is why banking stocks are suffering so much (perhaps too much; they don’t just own long-term bonds).
WSJ: Gee, why are long-term rates rising?: https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/bond-selloff-threatens-hopes-for-economys-soft-landing-80bb152a . Dammit, the Journal’s writers just do not know squat about interest rates, and neither do the experts they quote. The Fed has dramatically raised short-term rates, and inversion became severe. Therefore, long-term rates HAVE to rise. So no one wants to buy them at lower rates than the expected ultimate rate because leveraging makes the bond value tank when rates rise. This is not hard, unless you don’t understand compound interest.
WSJ: Well, gee, why aren’t people pouring money into bond funds?: https://www.wsj.com/finance/when-will-the-fed-stop-raising-rates-thats-the-trillion-dollar-question-for-bond-investors-22086a21 . Gawd. It’s absolutely rational to hold off purchases while rates are rising rapidly – otherwise, you’re buying assets that will fall rapidly in value from high and painful leveraging. And the Fed tells us rates will not fall rapidly. Listen to the Fed, dammit!
Is a recession still out there?: https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20231003140/just-like-in-1987-heres-what-could-deliver-a-devastating-blow-to-stocks-says-socgen-strategist-albert-edwards . One thing this strategist does not comment on is the possibility of another Fed rate increase. As readers know, I think another 25 point basis hike is coming in 2023. Obviously, that will send yields still higher. Many economists are ready to give up on the 2% inflation target, but the Fed is not. As I’ve stated before, this target is important because higher inflation will devalue currently held assets more rapidly over time. That destabilizes the economy. More: https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20231003301/banks-are-bracing-for-a-recession-as-treasury-yields-surge . I don’t think refinancing of debt on commercial properties is the issue for banks. The issue is that those properties are dropping in value, which could lead to defaults.
Jamie Dimon sees 7% as a possible Fed interest rate: https://www.thestreet.com/banking/jamie-dimon-issues-two-major-warnings-about-the-economy . Well, I do too. A long time ago, I said rates could top out at 6% to 7%. Certainly, nothing so far has taken that possibility off the table.
WSJ: Ukraine war: Inch by inch in Bakhmut: https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/ukraine-russia-war-bakhmut-cb5f7dc . Glad to not be anywhere Bakhmut.
WSJ: Please, restore aid to Ukraine: https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/u-s-funding-cutoff-threatens-ukraines-economic-stability-82716679 . As the next items show, we are currently incapable of governing. All of that rests with the House GOP.
The McCarthy vote: https://www.aol.com/news/mccarthy-says-thinks-survive-leadership-125836976.html . As I’m writing just before the vote, there are some interesting dynamics here. Because the GOP majority is only 5 votes, the Democrats appear to have the opportunity to topple McCarthy if they so choose. Clearly, some Democrats will vote against him. So this really comes down to the minority leader, Hakeem Jeffries. I doubt McCarthy will cut any deal with Jeffries, but my guess is that McCarthy will survive. We need Ukraine aid and a final budget, and McCarthy seems to be the best hope to get there.
2 pm EST update: We now have 6 GOP members saying they will vote against McCarthy, and Hakeem Jeffries has advised Democrats to vote against McCarthy: https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/live-updates/mccarthy-speaker-vote-live-updates/?id=103692404 (this is a live update link which may not last). This would appear to doom McCarthy’s chances of surviving this vote. However, the GOP must then find another speaker. Who can the Freedom Caucus present that the rest of the GOP will stand behind? As far as I know, no one meets that test.
My expectation is that the next Speaker will not accept the weak deal that McCarthy made, even if McCarthy can somehow get himself re-elected after losing this vote. The GOP caucus meetings must be quite interesting right now, assuming there’s anyone bright enough to understand the issues.
4:51 pm EST update: McCarthy voted out, 216 to 210, with 8 Republicans voting against McCarthy. Patrick McHenry, a top McCarthy ally, was appointed interim Speaker. Note that McCarthy has supported Orange Julius, but apparently OJ gave Gaetz his blessing to challenge McCarthy.
WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/politics/house-democrats-could-decide-kevin-mccarthys-fate-74de00ad . Still more: https://www.wsj.com/politics/what-happens-next-in-the-house-speaker-race-4eee8690 .
McCarthy says he won’t run again for Speaker: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/kevin-mccarthy-says-wont-run-house-speaker-rcna118611 . So, what alternatives will emerge?
Why House Democrats refused to support McCarthy: https://time.com/6320202/house-democrats-refused-save-kevin-mccarthy/ . So, this leaves out a crucial fact. On the Sunday talk shows, McCarthy blamed the Democrats for the shutdown lunacy (!). Other reporting says this clip was played for the Democratic caucus today to support Jeffries’ decision not to support McCarthy. Lack of integrity ought to count against you; it caught up with Kevin today.
Interim Speaker McHenry immediately grabs power and screws up: https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4237209-mchenry-orders-pelosi-to-leave-capitol-office-in-first-acts-as-speaker/ . At best, this is an appalling lack of courtesy, especially as Pelosi is in California because she accompanied Dianne Feinstein’s body back to the state. But boy, in the current circumstances, it is really ridiculous to further piss off House Democrats.
Meanwhile, the House GOP moves into lunacy overload mode: https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4237172-texas-republican-will-nominate-trump-for-speaker-of-the-house/ .
Judge in NY fraud trial issues gag order on Orange Julius: https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/03/politics/trump-gag-order-social-media-threat/index.html . WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/us-news/law/judge-dampens-trumps-enthusiasm-on-limiting-scope-of-fraud-case-30dfe11c . OJ threatened a member of the judge’s staff. Really, how stupid can you get? As I’ve said previously, there doesn’t seem to be any meaningful appeal here. Misbehavior just makes things more difficult for OJ and his attorneys. Meanwhile, OJ says he plans to take the stand in this case: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/what-trump-stands-to-lose-in-the-new-york-civil-trial-191514398.html . Does this seem like a good idea to anyone except OJ? Keep in mind Rule No. 1, Don’t piss off the judge.
Did OJ get screwed by his lawyers?: https://www.benzinga.com/general/23/10/35069931/trump-says-its-very-unfair-that-i-dont-have-a-jury-but-his-legal-teams-mind-blowing-oversight-is-to . Maybe. I seem to remember some commentary by Judge Engoron that this had to be a bench trial for some reason, but haven’t found it. In any event, as noted in the prior item, OJ’s misbehavior is a big part of his legal problems.
Co-conspirator Bernard Kerik turns on Sidney Powell: https://www.newsweek.com/sidney-powell-georgia-election-tim-parlatore-lawyer-1831695 . Well, not exactly. Readers recall that last week, “Flipper” Scott Hall placed Sidney Powell in great danger of conviction. Kerik’s lawyer is just hopping on the “Flipper” bus. This is precisely what prosecutors hope happens in a RICO prosecution. Remember, the first trial is scheduled to start October 23, now less than 3 weeks away.
WSJ: The SBF/FTX trial: https://www.wsj.com/style/fashion/sam-bankman-fried-trial-haircut-63cc1809 . There is an interesting message in here. It’s not about style. It’s about being forced to adjust to reality. More: Let’s be ridiculous: https://www.wsj.com/finance/currencies/sam-bankman-fried-ftx-trial-jurors-c05ab518 . The prosecution’s job is always to make the case simple to understand for jurors. There is nothing newsworthy in this article. However, the lawyer-idiot quoted in the last paragraph better hope his mother doesn’t read the Journal.
Nobel Prize in Physics awarded for extremely short light bursts: https://www.aol.com/ohio-state-scientist-among-three-111520605.html . These bursts can be used to show movement within atoms. WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/science/nobel-physics-prize-awarded-to-trio-for-work-on-light-and-electrons-44aedc76 .
Vanna White misses a week for COVID: https://people.com/vanna-white-missed-5-episodes-wheel-of-fortune-pat-sajak-final-season-8346947 . As the show tapes in advance, this event has already occurred – we’re just finding out about it. Also, I suspect Vanna’s contract was held to 3 years for a reason. The show has to get through the Sajak transition next year. After that, onstage chemistry with Ryan Seacrest and fan reaction (and Vanna) will determine whether or not Vanna stays. After all, as the old-timers say, she’s no spring chicken …
Where’s Messi?: https://www.aol.com/news/lionel-messis-status-still-mystery-154301238.html . Fans who’ve bought tickets lately (at stiff prices) are not happy that “day to day” has stretched over a month.