Florida advises against COVID shots: https://www.politico.com/news/2023/09/21/desantis-delivered-covid-booster-warning-as-florida-led-the-nation-in-hospitalizations-00117284 . DeMentis-appointed Quack-in-General commits medical malpractice, pure and simple.
Osterholm: Get the COVID shot: https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/virus-expert-just-gave-this-essential-covid-update/ss-AA1hleEj?ocid=hpmsn&cvid=e2dff9f0a9ac491aa69dbcf0e89c484d&ei=39#image=2 . Osterholm: Global COVID update: https://www.yahoo.com/video/virus-expert-just-issued-essential-110118254.html .
WSJ: Developing healthy habits: https://www.wsj.com/health/wellness/healthy-habits-research-science-7f373f67 . Um, does the author go to the gym regularly? I do. You can make it mindlessly routine. I swim at the gym, have a packed athletic bag ready to go each day, and (critically) put on swim trunks under my jeans before going to the gym. When you leave the house, you have to go to the gym. So, when I put on the trunks, I’m going – I’m on autopilot.
WSJ: Both sides raise pressure in UAW strike: https://www.wsj.com/business/autos/gm-stellantis-scramble-to-keep-repair-parts-flowing-amid-uaw-strike-b9414119 . The UAW could certainly use a settlement with Ford …
Bond “experts” freak out over increases in long-term yields: https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20230927444/entire-us-treasury-yield-curve-moves-toward-or-above-5-raising-risk-something-may-break . These people are hardly experts. As I have been saying for years in this newsletter, long-term rates have to move higher because they are lower than short-term rates. This is what the term “inversion” means. If you loan someone money for a longer period of time than another lender, you expect a higher rate of return because more risk is involved. Therefore, inversion is a problem and can only last temporarily.
I have said for years not to buy long-term bonds because sooner or later rates must rise, and those bonds will drop in value. That is exactly what is happening right now. Anyone who holds long-term bonds deserves their losses, because this scenario is so obvious. The only way out is to hold those bonds to maturity. If you own 30-year Treasuries, you made a big mistake.
By the way, the correct strategy is to hold a ladder (different maturities) of short-term bonds, and keep reinvesting the ladder as bonds mature until the inversion works its way out. Chairman Powell measures inversion on the spread between the 2 and 10-year Treasuries. On July 24, that inversion was 102 basis points (4.85% 2-year versus 3.83% 10-year), which is just massive. It dropped to 74 basis points August 3, and hovered around that level until September 19 (5.09% – 4.36% = 73 basis points). But it has plunged again in the last 8 days, and is now just 52 basis points (5.14% – 4.62%).
Again, ultimately inversion must disappear. The long-term bondholders have more pain coming. Note that the 10-year annual interest rate has risen 79 basis points in just two months (4.62% – 3.83%). It may rise by another 100 basis points or more in the next 6 months.
WSJ: China may allow housing prices to fall: https://www.wsj.com/economy/housing/china-has-second-thoughts-about-controlling-prices-in-its-multi-trillion-dollar-housing-market-f0a06012 . This approach will seriously reduce the assets of Chinese households, causing them to reduce spending. However, the market needs a reset.
McCarthy won’t hold vote on Senate funding extension: https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4225849-mccarthy-told-conference-he-wont-allow-vote-on-senate-stopgap-gop-lawmakers/ . WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/standoff-in-congress-brings-government-to-brink-of-shutdown-97d1ddcd . The Senate bill passed 77-19, so it is truly bipartisan. McCarthy knows the bill will pass in the House if brought to the floor, because Democrats will carry it over the finish line. So what the hell is he talking about?
McCarthy knows that if he brings the bill to the floor and it passes, the Freedom Caucus will vote him out of the Speakership. So we have 20 right-wing nuts about to cause the US to default on its debts, because McCarthy values the Speakership more than the country’s financial standing. Worst Speaker ever …
Right now, there is a bipartisan effort in the House to pass a discharge petition, which can force a floor vote. I think McCarthy secretly wishes this occurs, because it takes him off the hook. Worst, weakest Speaker ever …
WSJ: Even Karl Rove thinks the House GOP is behaving insanely: https://www.wsj.com/articles/gaetz-and-far-right-gop-legislators-risk-disaster-with-government-shutdown-cf5f591d . “The height of arrogance and ignorance …” – this sounds like something I’d write. Wow.
Judge Chutkan rejects OJ motion to recuse herself: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/justice-department/judge-tanya-chutkan-wont-recuse-trumps-election-interference-case-rcna117755 . A completely expected result comes as the defense’s desperation moves fail. Get out the barbeque sauce. WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/us-news/law/federal-judge-rejects-trumps-request-to-step-away-from-his-jan-6-cas-2d2b04f1 .
WSJ: Orange Julius seeks answers on business status of New York properties: https://www.wsj.com/us-news/trump-seeks-answers-on-fate-of-familys-new-york-real-estate-3073d89e . The judge’s ruling looks like a death sentence as far as doing business in New York. Has everyone forgotten that the former OJ Organization CFO went to prison for financial misconduct?: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/allen-weisselberg-former-trump-organization-cfo-released-from-jail/ .
Clarence Thomas’ ethics violations are undeniable: https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2023/09/john-roberts-supreme-court-ethics-rules.html . Professor Lubet is angry. He is also correct.
North Korea returns US soldier to US custody: https://apnews.com/article/north-korea-us-soldier-travis-king-00c171778e378d95fe1115fe31612ec2 . Bottom line, the North Koreans decided they wanted nothing to do with this guy. I expect a court martial is on the way.
WSJ: We shoot our ignorant mouths off about the Target store closures: https://www.wsj.com/articles/philadelphia-looting-target-store-closing-retail-theft-crime-1ee6de3c . I happen to shop at one of the Target closings in Portland, which are 3 of the 9 total closures. It and another of the stores closing here are very poorly designed and typically have very little foot traffic. The Journal just bought Target’s story hook, line and sinker with no investigation. The Journal under Murdoch has lost all resemblance to a professional journalism operation.
WSJ: Trailblazers trade Lillard: https://www.wsj.com/sports/basketball/damian-lillard-giannis-antetokounmpo-bucks-trade-5d68d9cf . The Portland franchise won its one and only title in 1977, the year after the US Bicentennial. With this trade, the next Trailblazers championship is now projected for the year after the Quadricentennial.