Why older people keep working: https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-reasons-more-people-are-working-in-their-80s-34f11699 . The basic response is simple: some have to, some want to. Note that the largest numbers are in thought jobs – professionals or management. Consultants are in a very favorable position to keep working in their later years if they so choose.
Why economies haven’t slowed: https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/why-economies-haven-t-slowed-more-since-central-banks-hit-the-brakes/ar-AA1d04Fi?ocid=hpmsn&cvid=ba90ec50d0f841289bf0aa4d0943c83e&ei=16 . Sigh. The media’s grasp of economics remains weak. Economists believe a recession is coming because the yield curve is severely inverted. This is a highly reliable predictor because the market expects rates to be reduced in the next year to 18 months, in response to weakening economic conditions. That expectation strikes me as unrealistic because the Fed needs to maintain high rates for a while to force inflation down. The Fed calls inflation their focus. They are willing to take a recession to meet this goal. This makes a recession likely to occur.
Prigozhin coup ends with short-term fix but long-term uncertainties: https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-wagner-prigozhin-belarus-deal-6782455ddc4234816bfb2d7d388d8a9a . WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/as-russia-processes-wagners-aborted-mutiny-no-winners-emerge-in-the-aftermath-989d9345 . Still more: https://www.wsj.com/articles/as-russia-processes-wagners-aborted-mutiny-no-winners-emerge-in-the-aftermath-989d9345 . Because of Putin’s televised speech that Prigozhin was a traitor, followed by Prigozhin’s exile to Belarus (not execution), the Russian people have directly seen Putin weakened. This has not previously happened in the 23 years of his reign. The question now is what Putin will do about Ukraine. Not only does that war look more unwinnable than ever for Russia, but Russia is now internally unstable.
The best of Putin’s poor choices would be for Putin to withdraw from Ukraine, negotiating a deal that puts Crimea in a 15-year review period. That deal, discussed earlier in the war, remains a reasonable end to hostilities now. However, Putin will still regard this as a visible defeat, and so that deal seems unlikely. Ukraine apparently still needs to defeat Russia on the battlefield, which they likely can do in the next 2 years, and perhaps this year.
A smaller (but not small) issue is what will happen to Wagner’s troops in Africa, which provide “protection” for various leaders while receiving significant payments such as control of gold mines. Prigozhin, who spent most of the 19080’s in prison, is often compared to figures in organized crime. Will he retain this source of wealth? That seems likely, given the nature of the “exile” settlement.
WSJ: Background on Lukashenko: https://www.wsj.com/articles/who-is-lukashenko-the-belarusian-leader-who-played-peacemaker-for-putin-8c56fc8b .
WSJ: More on Montana train derailment: https://www.wsj.com/articles/crews-begin-removing-risky-chemical-at-montana-train-derailment-site-de669f92 . We now learn the cause is the collapse of the supporting bridge. One wonders if the track inspectors were qualified to inspect the bridge.