Food poisoning from sick workers: https://www.pbs.org/newshour/health/sick-workers-tied-to-40-percent-of-restaurant-food-poisoning-outbreaks-cdc-says . A major factor is that the majority of food service workers do not have paid sick leave. This jeopardizes the safety of both coworkers and everyone who eats at restaurants (that is, just about everybody). I don’t really know what you do when your server sneezes, but I leave the grocery store produce aisle when the stocker sneezes near the food.
WSJ: Details of cancer drug importation: https://www.wsj.com/articles/fda-allows-imports-of-china-made-chemotherapy-to-ease-u-s-shortage-8ee88e7e . It seems clear that the government needs to subsidize on-shoring of widely used drug treatments where delay is damaging to survival. The eye drop infection situation we have reported on over the last two months demonstrates the dangers of poor quality control.
WSJ: Blood test clients wrongly told they had cancer: https://www.wsj.com/articles/blood-test-customers-mistakenly-told-they-may-have-cancer-31baf9ea . So, this company is not exactly the Holy Grail of testing, is it? Due to a software glitch, Grail even told people they had cancer before they had taken the test. Poor quality control, indeed … About 400 people were given false positives.
Japan’s birthrate drops to 1.25: https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2023-06-02/japan-demographic-woes-deepen-as-birth-rate-hits-record-low . As the appropriate rate for population replacement is around 2.1 (the article gives 2.07), Japan’s rapid aging is accelerating. Japan has already accepted ever-increasing numbers of foreign workers in order to keep its economy moving. Change must come to this notoriously closed society. It is apparent that change is not coming fast enough.
WSJ: Democrats work to end debt ceiling fights: https://www.wsj.com/articles/democrats-want-to-end-insanity-of-debt-ceiling-fights-8e0f3653 . I agree that this process is insane. It is a self-inflicted wound risking the country’s credit worthiness.
May jobs report shocks economists: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/may-jobs-report-shocks-economists-the-strangest-employment-report-for-some-time-173324175.html . Sigh. This article reminds us that if you laid all the economists in the world end-to-end, they wouldn’t reach a conclusion. All of the people quoted here are paid (by their employers) to comment, so these viewpoints are not exactly unbiased. The comments reflect what their employer is looking for in public commentary with the company’s name on it.
As readers will likely guess, the person I agree with is Christopher Rupkey, who says it is a policy mistake if the Fed fails to raise rates in June. As background, in March 2022 everyone agreed the Fed was way behind inflation in its policy. The Fed therefore raised rates a total of 500 basis points by March 2023, or just over a year later. This was an almost unprecedented increase, especially from a near-zero starting point.
Further rate increases should now be data-driven, and so the inflation data released on the first day of the Fed’s two-day June meeting is key. However, so far we have seen inflation to be sticky (as it usually is), and Chairman Powell has said multiple times that the Fed will accept a recession in order to tame inflation. We are nowhere near the 2% inflation target, and the job market has shown no sign of cooling. So, short of remarkable inflation data in June, the Fed should continue to raise, and to not do so is indeed a policy mistake.
By the way, Rupkey is right that the minor uptick to 3.7% unemployment from 3.4% does not represent adequate cooling of the economy. Labor force participation right now is historically low. The uptick may be associated with some folks being lured back into the job market as employers offer better terms to get workers. That is inflationary, because the employers pass those costs along.
Again, it is entirely possible the Fed will not raise rates in June, hoping for better inflation data in July. However, that wishy-washiness hurts their credibility, whether or not the July data is better. We are nowhere near 2% inflation, and the Fed cannot (or rather, should not) declare victory with anything above 2.5%.
WSJ: Zelensky reaffirms offensive is coming: https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraines-zelensky-we-are-ready-for-counteroffensive-22f4f3f2 . Of course, readers recall that this has been touted since last fall as a spring counter-offensive. We are less than 3 weeks from summer.
WSJ: Tennessee judge throws out drag show ban: https://www.wsj.com/articles/tennessee-judge-says-law-targeting-drag-shows-is-unconstitutional-879053c9 .
Do King Charles and Queen Camilla have a love child?: https://7news.com.au/entertainment/royal-family/aussie-who-claims-to-be-charles-son-drops-coronation-bombshell-i-have-my-proof-c-10531868?utm_source=syndication . His proof is one thing. Look at the pictures of this chap as a young man in the article, flanked by Charles and Camilla. We can’t see his ears in that photo, so look above at his pictures in later life compared to Charles. The resemblance in both sets of pictures is extraordinary.
UPDATE: As most of you know, I began writing this newsletter in early 2020, and went to 7-days-a-week publication on June 28, 2020. My original intent was to do this for about 6 months, but as the pandemic raged on, and the effects permeated global medical care, the need for real-time information continued. However, now that governments have declared the pandemic over (it is not), there has been considerable downsizing in both quality data and meaningful reporting.
Additionally, this has been a full-time job for me every day for almost 3 years. That was an acceptable commitment when we were all sequestered during the worst stages of the pandemic. Now, however, it is interfering with the more normal life that is available as the pandemic wanes. So I intend to reduce my commitment over the next few months. For now, I have given myself permission to skip the Friday and Saturday editions. Saturday is always the slowest news day of the week, and many papers (including the Wall Street Journal) do not even publish a Sunday paper.
You may have noticed that you received those editions this week (that is, the editions in your inboxes early Saturday and Sunday mornings). That’s because I was able to put these out without interfering with my other plans. So I will continue to regard these writings as voluntary, although it is obviously a major adjustment to my daily routine. For now, you will still receive daily newsletters in your inboxes Monday through Friday mornings. I so much appreciate your readership over these past 3+ years.
Also, I plan to add additional commentaries in which readers have indicated an interest. For example, a sort of white paper summarizing what we have learned from the pandemic is one planned article, and articles on what I’ve learned about the Internet in this process are another. Again, thank you for your past and future readership as the newsletter and I adjust.