COVID shots should target XBB, says WHO: https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2023-05-18/who-recommends-new-covid-shots-should-target-only-xbb-variants . Viewing this from the standpoint of an arms race between the vaccine and the virus, this makes total sense. We must adapt to the “enemy’s” tactics.
COVID expanded working from home: https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2023-05-18/how-the-covid-pandemic-impacted-working-from-home . The main beneficiaries were women.
FDA backs maternal RSV vaccine: https://www.usnews.com/news/top-news/articles/2023-05-18/u-s-fda-panel-backs-pfizers-rsv-vaccine-for-protecting-infants . Expectant mothers past their first trimester could take the vaccine to protect their babies.
WSJ: FDA approves preeclampsia blood test: https://www.wsj.com/articles/preeclampsia-blood-test-wins-fda-clearance-92087b11 .
Health screenings by age: WSJ: https://www.wsj.com/articles/health-conditions-screening-age-1ed3df71 .
WSJ: Sanofi wins patent dispute with Amgen: https://www.wsj.com/articles/sanofi-wins-supreme-court-patent-dispute-with-amgen-836df261 . Together with the FTC challenges to the Amgen-Horizon merger, Amgen has had a rough week.
Consumer debt exceeds $17 trillion for the first time: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/15/consumer-debt-passes-17-trillion-for-the-first-time-despite-slide-in-mortgage-demand.html . This strikes me as an incredibly important economic statistic that is getting inadequate attention. There are some “obvious” conclusions which say a lot about the US economy.
First, apparently much of the increase over the past few years has been driven by consumers refinancing their homes at historically low fixed interest rates. We have already seen evidence that people are staying in their homes to retain those rates, because they (correctly) regard the low-interest loan as a source of wealth. Even if they decide to move out, they may retain their home as a rental in order to keep the cheap loan – that gives them a pricing advantage in the rental market over time.
Second, estimating US annual GDP at $24 billion, consumer debt is now over 70% of US GDP. Based on 2021 statistics, 70% of that debt is mortgage debt, not all of which is at a fixed rate. The remainder is student loans (11%), auto loans (10%), credit card debt (6%) and other (3%): https://www.ramseysolutions.com/debt/average-american-debt (Q2 2021 data). Much of this debt is at floating rates. As the Fed has rapidly raised interest rates by 5% in just over a year, that floating rate debt has become much more expensive. As such, the economic pressure on middle and lower income households holding this type of debt has increased in a highly leveraged manner (from, say, 3% to 8%, meaning the interest payment is 2.67 times what it was previously).
We are at record high employment. If unemployment goes up (an expected consequence of Fed rate increases), one can expect that we will see increasing loan defaults and bankruptcies among the households holding floating-rate debt. The Fed expects (as I do) that current interest rates will not be decreased for at least a year. The economic pressure on middle and lower income households with floating debt will therefore last for some time.
Third, as home prices accelerated over the past few years, many expect some retreat in those prices, especially in more volatile housing markets. As some households became highly leveraged in order to get into a home at a low mortgage rate, the decline in home prices may wipe out a significant portion of their equity.
In summary, a broad percentage of middle and lower income American households will be under significant economic pressure for at least the next year, and expected job losses may crush their economic situation.
WSJ: Debt ceiling worries Social Security recipients: https://www.wsj.com/articles/social-security-debt-ceiling-default-49f0c755 .
US-Taiwan trade deal: WSJ: https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-taiwan-reach-trade-deal-as-tensions-with-china-simmer-52b2ef77 .
WSJ: We like to ignore the most important facts: https://www.wsj.com/articles/ubs-faces-tough-choice-over-credit-suisses-domestic-business-c791d3a0 . How is it a tough decision for UBS to keep Credit Suisse’s operation in Switzerland, “the only profitable unit at Credit Suisse”? Keeping the Credit Suisse operations essentially makes UBS the only major bank in Switzerland. In other words, UBS becomes “too big to fail”. The quality of the Journal’s reporting and analysis continues its decline.
WSJ: Pentagon accounting error leaves $3 billion more for aid to Ukraine: https://www.wsj.com/articles/accounting-error-leaves-pentagon-with-3-billion-more-in-arms-for-ukraine-u-s-says-6d6f4576 . So is anyone being held responsible for a $3 billion error?
Dianne Feinstein suffered shingles complications, including brain inflammation and Ramsay Hunt syndrome: https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/dianne-feinstein-suffered-brain-inflammation-complication-shingles-aide/story?id=99439726 .
Disney cancels plans for $1 billion corporate campus in central Florida that would have housed 2,000 jobs: https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/disney-cancels-plans-relocate-2-181951313.html . So now who wants DeMentis overseeing the US economy? Again, Ron’s feud with Florida’s name employer constitutes incredibly bad judgment. WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/disney-ends-plans-to-relocate-thousands-of-employees-to-new-florida-campus-ca68a49e .
Dunphy lawsuit against Rudy Giuliani suggests crimes were committed: https://news.yahoo.com/allegations-in-giuliani-lawsuit-could-lead-to-criminal-investigations-experts-say-184932054.html .
WSJ: Bob Lee murder suspect pleads not guilty: https://www.wsj.com/articles/nima-momeni-bob-lee-suspect-arraignment-san-francisco-3ef6fdb .
Deutsche Bank settles with Jeffrey Epstein victims for $75 million: https://www.nbcnews.com/nightly-news/video/deutsche-bank-to-pay-75-million-to-jeffrey-epstein-victims-174867525621 .
WSJ: The coming El Nino will speed ocean warming: https://www.wsj.com/articles/ocean-warming-el-nino-noaa-ec2f124 . We are so screwed …
WSJ: Manchester City set up for dream season: 3 games for 3 championships: https://www.wsj.com/sports/soccer/manchester-city-treble-champions-league-final-real-madrid-inter-milan-e7cfa6f9 .