New COVID subvariants enter US: https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2023-04-07/cdc-omicron-subvariant-xbb-1-5-responsible-for-88-of-new-covid-19-infections . While XBB.1.5 remains dominant at 88.5% of US cases, XBB.1.9.1 now accounts for 5% of US cases. However, XBB.16.1 has appeared in the US. WHO has flagged this variant as potentially more infectious and more severe than other variants. Remember all that expert epidemiologist yak at the front of the pandemic that COVID will naturally evolve to less severe variants over time? That was pretty clearly unsupported by logic then, and XBB.1.9.1 pretty much trashes that theory 3 years in.
Dueling federal rulings on abortion drug: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/majority-nashville-council-members-say-will-vote-reinstate-expelled-le-rcna78706 . As expected, an anti-abortion federal judge in Texas suspended the FDA approval of Mifepristone. His order is intended to apply nationwide, but the judge suspended his order for 7 days in order to give the federal government the opportunity to appeal, which the White House has already said they will.
In the meantime, the Pacific Northwest rides to the rescue. In a case led by the Washington and Oregon Attorneys General, a federal judge in eastern Washington has ruled that the FDA approval must remain in effect in 17 states which sued to maintain Mifepristone availability. How did this happen? Lawyers call it forum shopping. The Texas case was filed in Amarillo, the Northern District of Texas, because there is only one active federal judge in Amarillo, whose antiabortion views are well-known.
In the Eastern District of Washington, there are two active judges in Spokane. The AGs clearly assessed that the Spokane forum would likely be favorable to their case. So what happens next? If there are appeals, the Spokane judge will likely be affirmed by the liberal Ninth Circuit, headquartered in San Francisco. The Amarillo appeal would go to the Fifth Circuit, headquartered in New Orleans.
While the Fifth Circuit is conservative, the facts do matter. FDA approved this drug 23 years ago, and it has proven safe and effective. It is used in the majority of abortions in the US. The Fifth Circuit should be reluctant to overrule the expertise of the FDA, especially given the safety record of this drug.
Either through the courts of appeals or via direct appeal, this case could end up at the Supreme Court. Despite the 6-3 conservative majority on the Supreme Court, there will be considerable reluctance to overrule the FDA’s expertise, again especially because of the actual performance of this drug. Therefore, I expect at some point the loner in Amarillo will be overruled. Here’s some additional background written before today’s rulings which details why the Amarillo judge is going outside the mainstream: https://www.nbcnews.com/health/womens-health/texas-judge-could-throw-abortion-pill-access-into-question-rcna70644 . WSJ: More or less: https://www.wsj.com/articles/abortion-pill-approval-suspended-by-u-s-judge-3c5c88cf .
The gas stove leak cover-up: https://www.thecooldown.com/green-business/desmog-reporting-gas-stoves-childhood-asthma-cover-up/ . Sounds pretty much like the tobacco industry, doesn’t it?
US added 236,000 jobs in March: https://finance.yahoo.com/march-jobs-report-april-7-2023-123139159.html . In what I believe is now a data-driven process on Federal Reserve interest rates, this data along with a 3.5% unemployment rate argues for another rate increase in May. That increase is probably still 25 basis points. WSJ: The markets seem to see the writing on the wall this time: https://www.wsj.com/articles/treasury-yields-climb-after-strong-jobs-report-824ae4df .
Major leak of US military intelligence information: https://news.yahoo.com/tranche-of-purported-us-and-allied-military-secrets-leaked-online-in-possible-major-intelligence-breach-222137286.html . The designations on these documents indicate they are available to very few people. The government needs to know yesterday how this happened. Because of the limited access, I suspect the intelligence services are already fairly far along in identifying the mechanics and the leaker. We will see. WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/pentagon-says-it-is-reviewing-social-media-posts-that-purport-to-reveal-classified-documents-on-ukraine-4d7524f .
WSJ: Ukraine strikes Russian military base in southern Ukraine: https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-strikes-russian-military-base-in-occupied-south-as-offensive-looms-cce9606a?mod=series_rusukrainenato .
Thomas “hospitality” fall-out continues: https://apnews.com/article/supreme-court-justice-clarence-thomas-ethics-trips-2c0f59fd1b0d5d3617c1537a767c5325 . So unnamed people advised him that he didn’t have to disclose? Those people believe hundreds of thousands and perhaps millions in luxury vacations and travel constitute “hospitality”? This disclosure means Thomas knew there was an ethics issue here (duh!), and chose questionable behavior in response. Combined with his utter lack of ability, Thomas cements his reputation as the worst justice in at least the last 100 years. Despite the wait, we look forward to his departure from the Court. More: https://news.yahoo.com/following-furor-over-gop-donor-090017615.html . WSJ: Umm, maybe no comment is best: https://www.wsj.com/articles/justice-clarence-thomas-defends-luxury-travel-paid-for-by-billionaire-gop-donor-4d3f22b0 . Umm, you people are now routinely embarrassing yourselves.
January 6 prosecutions hit a bump in the road: https://www.politico.com/news/2023/04/07/january-6-obstruction-ruling-00091034 . This split opinion over “corrupt intent” needs to be resolved ASAP. Judge Walker’s approach, to declare his approach the controlling opinion, strikes me as wrong. The best approach would be to request a rehearing en banc – that is, with all 10 members of the court participating. Then either side could appeal to the US Supreme Court. Given the hundreds of cases in process, an expedited review is highly desirable.
Nashville Metropolitan Council will reinstate State Senator Justin Jones after his expulsion: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/majority-nashville-council-members-say-will-vote-reinstate-expelled-le-rcna78706 . In other words, the GOP supermajority can stuff it. Also, those GOP legislators who called this an insurrection have simply cemented Tennessee’s reputation as an uneducated backwater. Actually, since they expelled two black legislators, let me correct that to “uneducated racist backwater”. Not that I have a strong opinion …
MARK YOUR CALENDAR: Total eclipse coming April 8, 2024: https://apnews.com/article/where-to-see-2024-total-solar-eclipse-113061a08d63e579c698017312f7eea0 . I’ve seen various partial eclipses over the years – not that big a deal. But in 2017 the total eclipse came through Oregon. Despite dire traffic predictions, I took a back road south and arrived in Stayton, Oregon, dead center in the eclipse path (where the eclipse is the longest) well in advance of the eclipse. That total eclipse was 2 minutes and 20 seconds long, and it was life-changing. It took the typical 1 ½ hours to drive there, but 7 hours coming back. Still: TOTALLY WORTH IT.
Stayton is on a hill, and you can see more distant mountains in almost every direction. They stayed partially lit while we were in total darkness. The horizon looked like sunset – but 360 degrees of sunset. That experience convinced me I wanted to see the next one; that this one will be 4½ minutes long seals the deal for me. You need clear skies, of course, so Texas or Arkansas will likely be the least risky locations. And be sure to drive to the center of the path from wherever you stay.
WSJ: McDonald’s layoff news, sort of: https://www.wsj.com/articles/mcdonalds-cuts-pay-packages-closes-offices-alongside-layoffs-across-chain-1039c20b . There appears to be very little hard information in this article. Perhaps McDonald’s will be more forthcoming with its shareholders.
WSJ: Pope Francis skips outdoor Good Friday ceremony: https://www.wsj.com/articles/pope-francis-skips-good-friday-ceremony-due-to-cold-weather-773f3ab8 . Reading between the lines here, the pope is becoming frailer rather rapidly.
The Masters 2023: Three trees fall on gallery; no injuries reported: https://sports.yahoo.com/masters-2023-trees-fall-into-gallery-at-augusta-national-no-injuries-reported-203608430.html . This was a terrifying event, and it was a miracle no one was killed. The video on the CBS Evening News showed two of the trees falling, complete with the root balls coming out of the ground. So far that video is not online. Here’s a clip from a CBS affiliate that shows one of the trees going down: https://www.cbsnews.com/minnesota/news/watch-trees-fall-near-spectators-during-masters-golf-tournament/ .
Oh, right, the golf: The second round was suspended before play was complete, but Bruce Koepka finished at -12 through 36 holes. Jon Rahm trails him by 3 with 9 holes to play, while Sam Bennett (an amateur) is in the clubhouse at -8, four behind. Two players tied for fourth at -6. So unless things change dramatically, it’s Koepka and Rahm for the championship. And the weather is going to continue to be a mess. WSJ: What happens if an LIV golfer wins the Masters?: https://www.wsj.com/articles/masters-2023-second-round-brooks-koepka-liv-3e8217e0 .
Wow. Travis Kelce’s ceremonial first pitch … made me laugh out loud: https://sports.yahoo.com/travis-kelces-1st-pitch-with-guardians-goes-awry-to-delight-of-patrick-mahomes-233138156.html . Okay, so he’s a famous pro football player and played baseball in high school. But high school was a long time ago …