Latest study on long COVID: https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2023-02-14/study-most-hospitalized-covid-19-patients-report-lingering-symptoms-financial-problems-after-6-months . These results are not particularly surprising. Long COVID afflicts 30% of COVID patients. Note that heart and lung symptoms increased after hospital discharge.
Marburg virus in Equatorial Guinea: https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2023-02-14/who-increasing-health-surveillance-after-equatorial-guinea-finds-marburg-virus . Marburg is a form of Ebola and is highly contagious. The disease may now have spread across the border with Cameroon.
States with the highest marriage rates: https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/articles/2023-02-14/marriages-rebound-in-u-s-states-after-early-pandemic-drop . As the article points out, because the statistics are by location, the Nevada ranking at #1 is misleading. That is also true for #2, Hawaii.
Inflation remains hot, but the market refuses to believe: https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/14/economy/cpi-inflation-january/index.html . The details here are important. Note that year-over-year inflation remains at 6.4%, above economists’ expectations. However, month-over-month inflation is at 0.5%, which if compounded into an annual rate is 6.2%. In other words, there is no real evidence that inflation is slowing significantly.
Also note that the methodology has changed. The base is now from 12 months ago; previously the base was based on the two previous years. This biases the base upwards from the prior calculation; that is, it tends to show lower inflation. Again, there is no real evidence inflation is slowing.
Lastly, remember the Fed’s target is 2%; clearly 6%+ is not close. Further, as we have argued for some time, inflation is sticky and will resist being pushed below 5%. I continue to see that, short of Armageddon, the Fed will not be cutting rates in 2023. The Fed continues to price in that possibility, but there is no basis for that outcome in the data. WSJ: Fed on track for more rate increases: https://www.wsj.com/articles/inflation-report-keeps-fed-on-track-to-continue-rate-increases-db104ca0 . Duh …
The limits on the inflation report, Part2: Eggs?: https://news.yahoo.com/grocery-prices-remain-higher-in-january-led-by-eggs-and-citrus-152442563.html . Much of the media buzz around this report centers on eggs, which are up 70% in a year. As I use eggs almost entirely for baking, and don’t bake much anymore, this item has no effect on my budget. One has to wonder whether the government’s “food basket” remains relevant to most households. Romantic eggs?: https://news.yahoo.com/republicans-pounce-on-the-weak-inflation-report–even-offering-an-ode-to-egg-prices-171311154.html . Whatever you think of the GOP, these comments are pathetic. This congressman, who hasn’t missed many meals lately, is undoubtedly unaware that egg prices are up because of disastrous bird flu in the nation’s poultry stocks. But romantic eggs? Quoting Bugs Bunny, What a maroon …
WSJ: The egg report: https://www.wsj.com/articles/egg-prices-shortage-avian-flu-11673629381 . The conservative focus on eggs is a total yolk …
Stocks are overvalued: https://sports.yahoo.com/pivot-stocks-bonds-because-investors-142800150.html . As we know, Rule No. 1 is, Don’t piss off the judge. Rule No. 2, also cited here multiple times but now earning its number designation, is Don’t fight the Fed. While the earnings multiple math in this article is accurate, it is not the whole story. Corporate earnings are already disappointing Wall Street. But as earnings go down, the multiple increases unless stock prices go down, too. Correction must come.
Judge orders Sam Bankman-Fried back to court: https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/14/tech/sam-bankman-fried-remote-internet/index.html . Here is another classic violation of Rule No. 1. We have noted many times that stupidity has no limits, but this behavior comes closer to the legal equivalent of death wish.
WSJ: The Russian offensive in Ukraine: https://www.wsj.com/articles/major-russian-offensive-is-under-way-in-ukraine-nato-says-6309cf7e .
Putin moves to rein in Wagner mercenaries: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/kremlin-moves-rein-russian-mercenary-boss-prigozhin-2023-02-13/ . While Putin has staked his legacy on absorbing Ukraine, he does not tolerate competitors.
W’s secret memos to Obama predicted Putin had his eye on Ukraine: https://www.rawstory.com/russia-ukraine-bush-obama/ . The writer glosses over the detail that Russia seized Crimea in 2014. That is, W’s prediction came true in 6 years from 2008, not 13. The memo is correct, but it is not as far-sighted as the writer implies.
Turkey Syria death toll now 41,000 and still rising: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/survivors-ever-fewer-earthquake-rubble-turkey-syria-2023-02-12/ . Again, sadly, the most recent estimate of total deaths of 60,000 continues to appear reasonable. WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/earthquake-fallout-raises-political-stakes-in-turkeys-election-year-f921ae11 .
WSJ: The Chinese balloon threat to Asia: https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-s-asia-allies-see-new-threat-from-balloons-amid-china-spying-row-73a4b214 .
Dianne Feinstein FINALLY bows out of her Senate seat: https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2023/02/feinstein-says-shell-retire-as-would-be-successors-line-up.html . Everyone has been painfully aware of the decline in the Senator’s faculties. In recent weeks, two popular California House members (Adam Schiff and Katie Porter) have declared their campaigns for this safely Democratic seat. So Feinstein’s fate has been known for some time. It is unclear how much of this was her decision. WSJ: More, maybe: https://www.wsj.com/articles/sen-dianne-feinstein-will-retire-as-one-of-the-50-longest-serving-u-s-senatorssee-the-list-f9da2677 . You dimwits failed to mention that Joe Biden served longer in the US Senate than Dianne Feinstein. Gee why would that be? More “more, maybe”: https://www.wsj.com/articles/california-sen-dianne-feinstein-says-she-wont-run-for-re-election-4d5e93c2 .
Fox: We intentionally miss the point about Ron DeMentis: https://www.foxnews.com/media/dem-oppo-researcher-slams-desantis-wearing-high-heeled-boots-called-cowboy-boots . The point is not the name of cowboy boots. The point is, DeMentis is short and tries to compensate. This used to be called a Napoleon complex.
In high school, in 1967, I met Richard Nixon face to face. Nixon’s bio lists him as 5’11”. I’m 5’11”. There is no chance Nixon was any taller than 5’8”. Given the reports that he consistently wore lifts in his shoes, he may have been closer to 5’6”. This criticism of DeMentis is meaningful, as are the regular reports that he’s weird and off-putting.
Pence plans to resist special counsel subpoena: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/justice-department/pence-plans-resist-special-counsel-subpoena-jan-6-probe-rcna70569 . My view is that this is a bad look for Pence, regardless of the success or failure of this argument. The country needs to get to the bottom of January 6, which is of course OJ. Pence looks like he is conspiring against the truth.
More (or less) on Pence: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/opinion/column-how-mike-pence-s-flawed-argument-against-a-subpoena-just-might-get-him-what-he-wants/ar-AA17u2Jn?cvid=b4f1dd58035c4404a534139930acc978 . I agree that this works best as a run-out-the clock strategy, and that it is more interesting legally than the executive privilege argument. I also agree that it won’t hold up, but not for the reason the writer states. Pence admits that his role at the Capitol was completely ceremonial in this case. If so, it is not protected speech under this argument. WSJ: Yeah, we have no idea except pandering to our audience: https://www.wsj.com/articles/mike-pence-plans-to-fight-subpoena-from-special-counsel-in-jan-6-probe-59bb5c . (a) It’s not that plausible; (b) “Plausible” is a very fancy way of saying “losing”.
Special counsel seeks testimony of OJ lawyer: https://www.politico.com/news/2023/02/14/special-counsel-donald-trump-testify-00082932 . OJ is about to see the business end of the DOJ, as they say. The crime-fraud exception is a narrow one in the law. DOJ is pursuing this because they believe they have a slam-dunk case (I agree). Mr. Corcoran is staring at the end of his professional career.
MAGA maniacs persist, Democrats hunt them down: https://www.rawstory.com/janel-brandtjen/ . I included this story to mention that the GOP tossed her out, and still she persists. There is a common theme among OJ supporters: Power comes first, and “Me Uber Alles”. May Janel be erased by the GOP, the Democrats, or both.
Democratic governor stands for education, in opposition to DeMentis: https://apnews.com/article/ron-desantis-phil-murphy-trenton-new-jersey-florida-6a1481db626786bccaf2f60bbacf7f51 . As usual, Ron is racist and wrong on this issue. DeMentis has a viable plan to win the GOP nomination, but nothing for either the general election or governance. And, as is well known, he is a jerk.
Nikki Haley announces presidential run: https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/14/politics/nikki-haley-2024-announcement/index.html . So we all know this is going nowhere. I also don’t see her as adding anything to a ticket that would commend her for a vice-presidential nomination. Presumably she is announcing now to generate campaign contributions from the anti-OJ forces out there. In a field with OJ and Ron DeMentis, I would expect that either Nikki Haley or Tim Scott would have a difficult time finishing second in South Carolina. So this is all essentially pointless, which is pretty much what the GOP does full-time. WSJ: We say Nikki is a major challenger: https://www.wsj.com/articles/nikki-haley-enters-gop-presidential-race-as-first-major-trump-challenger-4f88d0da . Nowhere.
WSJ: We’re making our (new) name in truly stupid analysis: https://www.wsj.com/articles/exxon-mobil-is-the-biggest-gainer-in-the-management-top-250-2844916d . Exxon makes the biggest gain based on its financial strength? A war in Ukraine makes Exxon well-managed? What idiot would even publish this? Oh, right …
Three days ago this newsletter discussed their bizarre methodology on best locations for remote workers. Yesterday we were confronted with their unintelligible comments on the US stock market’s interpretation of the Fed. Today we get a management analysis that is beyond ridiculous on its face. We’ve known for a long time that their editorial opinion comes from somewhere outside this solar system. Now, we are down to reading the Journal for statements of fact, and checking those elsewhere …
WSJ: Tuesday Morning files Chapter 11 bankruptcy: https://www.wsj.com/articles/discount-retailer-tuesday-morning-files-for-second-bankruptcy-f57441f0 . This is their second filing in less than 2 years. They still have a sense of humor, though, as they filed on Tuesday morning (WSJ missed that, of course).
WSJ: Subway looks for a buyer: https://www.wsj.com/articles/subway-confirms-it-is-seeking-buyers-419dc974 . Apparently, “healthy” sandwiches are no longer a growth market …