China reports 60,000 COVID-related deaths: https://apnews.com/article/health-china-beijing-covid-425a5de577126b042d4eea915c174bc0 . These numbers are certainly more realistic than China’s earlier, ridiculous reports. However, as the article indicates, experts still fear these numbers represent a significant undercount. Additionally, the claim that the tsunami has peaked seems unlikely with Lunar New Year travel underway. Previous expert estimates were that the current wave would peak January 23 at 25,000 deaths per day.
More: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jan/14/nearly-60000-people-have-died-of-covid-in-china-in-past-five-weeks . According to this article, the Chinese are only reporting people who died in a hospital. Remember the early COVID wave in New York? We know huge numbers of deaths occurred at home or otherwise outside the hospital, especially in rural areas where there are few hospitals. Combine this with elderly distrust of modern medicine in China, and we know they are still significantly undercounting. Still more: https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/other/china-reports-huge-rise-in-covid-related-deaths-after-data-criticism/ar-AA16lGY5?cvid=fa1a8067646b4443a5e85b417082b857 . WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-says-60-000-have-died-of-covid-since-controls-were-lifted-11673704125 .
A summary of the newsletter’s reporting and analysis of this tragedy over the past month: (1) On January 3, we used prior expert projections to estimate that there had been 150,000 deaths since Zero COVID was relaxed, and that China would hit 1 million COVID deaths by April 8; (2) Models estimate China will suffer between 1 and 1.5 million COVID deaths; (3) I believe this number is too low, and estimate deaths of at least 2.5 million; (4) As far as we know, Omicron XBB has not yet hit China. We expect that China, like other countries, will experience repeated waves of COVID over the next several years.
Despite the gloom of this situation, there is one glimmer of hope here. The Chinese have realized the global embarrassment they are suffering for their ridiculous COVID underreporting. Whether or not they fully clean up their COVID reporting, we could still get reasonable overall mortality statistics from the country. This will allow us to complete an excess death calculation.
WSJ: China’s economic and health problems for 2023: https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-xi-jinping-difficult-2023-11673627314 . Of course the Chinese people will place blame with Xi for the massive COVID tsunami engulfing them. How this will play out remains unclear.
US birth rate drops as women further delay having their first child: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/kindergarten-routine-vaccination-rates-fell-for-second-straight-year-cdc-warns/ . We know that the global population is projected to drop, perhaps by 2100: https://news.un.org/en/story/2022/07/1122272 . My guess is that the drop will occur before that, as better education and the Western lifestyle completely overtakes the world. At least, that is my hope.
WSJ: We still don’t understand inflation: https://www.wsj.com/articles/workers-lose-ground-to-inflation-despite-big-wage-gains-11673649460 . Educated people write these articles, right? As the article correctly points out, wage increases are “stickier” than inflation (duh!). The article also notes that workers have lost ground to inflation in the past two years (also, duh!). So it is logical that workers will continue to seek wage increases, either in their present employment or by changing jobs. This, you dimwits, is why inflation is sticky and will not be resolved quickly.
WSJ: Russia continues missile attacks on Ukraine: https://www.wsj.com/articles/blasts-rock-ukraines-cities-in-morning-russian-missile-attacks-11673689664 . Meanwhile, UK prods Germany to give battle tanks to Ukraine: https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-k-becomes-first-country-to-pledge-western-battle-tanks-to-ukraine-11673712045 .
Time favors the Ukrainians: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/01/russia-ukraine-weapon-production-nato-supply/672719/ . This opinion piece makes two important points. First, the Russian army currently in the field is a poor imitation of the one that started the war. It is less trained, and very importantly more poorly equipped. Second, many of the European countries coming to Ukraine’s aid now believe Putin must be defeated outright in order to end his security threat to Europe.
WSJ: Turkey will delay NATO expansion: https://www.wsj.com/articles/turkeys-approval-of-sweden-finland-nato-membership-could-take-months-11673705878 .
WSJ: 3-D printing moves to displace traditional manufacturing: https://www.wsj.com/articles/3-d-printing-iceland-fish-supply-chains-desktop-metal-11673642250 .
Congress has been trying to fix Congress: https://news.yahoo.com/dont-tell-anyone-but-democrats-and-republicans-agree-on-fixing-congress-and-have-even-been-working-on-it-100026086.html . Can Congressmen work together to provide positive reforms to improve the functioning of the House? This apparently provides supporting evidence. Can they fix Congress? In my view, no chance, especially with the current bunch of loons on the GOP side of the aisle. However, voters can help by restoring a Democratic majority in 2024 …
Robot lawyer to argue court case: https://www.aol.com/donotpays-first-robot-lawyer-speeding-212550635.html . Oh … my … God. At the point in time where everything in the world can be handled through AI, we will need to retreat from the world …
Nobel Prize winning scientist shows the limits of his knowledge: https://www.foodandwine.com/scientist-says-he-found-a-cheaper-way-to-make-pasta-7093016 . Good grief! As friends know, the proper preparation of pasta has been my life-long obsession. The chefs are quite correct; there is much more to this than simply rehydrating the pasta. Somehow, the concept of “al dente” has never reached this scientist’s brain (or teeth). Embarrassing …
Damar Hamlin visits Bills practice facility: https://sports.yahoo.com/damar-hamlin-returns-to-bills-facility-less-than-2-weeks-after-cardiac-arrest-225228873.html . This is wonderful news. However, we still do not have a detailed medical assessment of Hamlin’s current situation. I would guess his football career has ended …