China not disclosing COVID deaths: https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2022-12-20/beijing-braces-for-surge-in-severe-covid-cases-as-world-watches-with-concern . We have said before that excess deaths will be the measure of COVID fatalities in China. This article reports the visual evidence of those excess deaths.
Children’s pain medication shortage: https://www.forbes.com/sites/ariannajohnson/2022/12/20/heres-why-there-is-a-shortage-for-childrens-tylenol-advill-and-motrin-and-what-to-do-about-it/?sh=146dc65528f4 . The tripledemic continues. Sadly, news like this will lead to restocking the medicine cabinet and hoarding, which will increase the shortage. WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/flu-rsv-and-covid-drive-demand-for-childrens-pain-relievers-and-fever-reducers-11671517354 .
Biggest medical advances in 2022: https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/from-als-treatment-to-a-historic-transplant-the-biggest-medical-breakthroughs-of-2022/ar-AA15rGX9?cvid=0d5867ed8e794141802269400b6e770f .
Nuformix files for patent on cancer drug reformulation: https://www.cityam.com/drug-developer-files-patents-for-cancer-treatment-which-outperforms-astrazeneca-offering/ .
Global bird flu outbreak continues: https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/bird-flu-outbreaks-threat-1.6684560 . Note that the outbreak has already killed 4.7 million birds in Canada. The US has also had a major outbreak, leading to a shortage of larger turkeys at Thanksgiving. As the article notes, this does represent a global health threat to humans as well, as transmission of this type of virus from pigs and birds to humans is well-documented and relatively common.
Zelensky to visit Biden and US Congress in Washington Wednesday: https://www.politico.com/news/2022/12/20/zelenskyy-congress-wednesday-00074873 . Wow. WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-president-volodymyr-zelensky-expected-to-visit-washington-on-wednesday-11671577431 .
Global economy bets China will learn to live with COVID: https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2022-12-20/analysis-global-economy-bets-on-china-learning-to-live-with-covid . That’s true. But it’s a terrible bet for 2023. China is almost completely unprepared for the COVID wave now unfolding. More: https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2022-12-20/world-bank-cuts-china-growth-outlook-on-covid-property-woes . Still more: https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2022-12-19/china-races-to-install-hospital-beds-as-covid-surge-sparks-concern-abroad . WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-factories-once-followed-zero-covid-orders-but-now-are-on-their-own-11671559183 .
Let’s do some simple math. An article in the paragraph above suggests 60% of the Chinese population could get COVID in the current wave. 60% x 1.4 billion = 840 million. We have previously estimated COVID’s current mortality rate at 0.3%. Then 0.3% x 840 million = 2.5 million. That’s much higher than the models we’ve previously reported estimating 1.5 million deaths (which is huge anyway).
The kicker is that the 0.3% was estimated based on US experience. Here, we have both natural immunity (prior infections) and efficient vaccines. But China has neither. Therefore, their death toll could be much higher than even the 2.5 million.
The guy who invented inversions now says it may be sending a false signal: https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20221220276/economist-who-pioneered-use-of-closely-followed-recession-tool-says-it-may-be-sending-false-signal . While this guy is clearly an authority on the topic, he apparently doesn’t know everything. There is an obvious logical basis for this measure. If you loan someone money for a longer period, you should expect more interest per year because of your longer loss of liquidity. When that breaks down, banks are less likely to lend, and this is predictive of a recession. The indicator has been essentially infallible over the past 40 years.
Congress releases draft $1.7 trillion spending bill: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/congress-releases-major-spending-bill-election-reforms-prevent-another-rcna62469 . The description of the bill as “bipartisan” in the Senate bodes well for its passage.
US captures 6 ISIS officials in Syria: https://thehill.com/policy/defense/3782184-six-isis-officials-captured-in-commando-raids/ .
Democrats in House vote to release Orange Julius tax returns for 2015 through 2020: https://news.yahoo.com/democratic-lawmakers-vote-to-release-former-president-trumps-tax-returns-010402442.html . The GOP cries foul here. Over what? It has been traditional for presidential candidates to release their tax returns. OJ refused to do it because … well, because it shows at the least that he pays virtually no taxes, and at the worst that he’s a crook. Actually, it will show both ends of that spectrum. WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-tax-returns-irs-audits-discussed-in-closed-door-house-meeting-11671571402 .
Murdaugh trial to commence next month: https://apnews.com/article/crime-south-carolina-columbia-9d315cf243fd9f3a41b85628cde7e768 . However, Murdaugh will not face the death penalty in this double murder trial.
Ex-Nazi secretary convicted: https://apnews.com/article/prisons-dceae7a28dfdee9a869bd8fe8a75c91a . WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/former-nazi-camp-secretary-97-found-guilty-in-what-could-be-final-holocaust-trial-11671541582 . By “secretary”, we mean a then-young woman who was a secretary in a concentration camp. What struck me about this article was that the camp she worked at, Stutthof, executed 60,000 people. I’d never heard of this camp before, which reflects the enormity of the Nazi cleansing operation. The camp was in Poland, near Gdansk. It had many subcamps, which partially explains the count of 44,000 Nazi concentration camps and internment centers: https://encyclopedia.ushmm.org/content/en/article/stutthof .
Meanwhile, our American nuts just keep nutting along: https://www.aol.com/news/marjorie-taylor-greene-attacks-lauren-115120875.html . That this childishness is newsworthy demonstrates the broken state of the GOP and their toxic effect on American democracy. As the country moves away from Orange Julius, one hopes this white trash will be swept out as quickly as it was swept in.
Musk confirms he’ll step down as Twitter CEO and actively looks for a successor: https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/musk-confirms-he-ll-resign-as-twitter-ceo-after-successor-found/ar-AA15vsK4?cvid=0eb04c5c44ed48f8b3e256a2079d2b42 . WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/elon-musk-casts-doubt-on-poll-wanting-him-gone-as-twitter-head-11671578391 . The worst use ever of $44 billion now begins to draw to a close.
King Charles III banknote: https://people.com/royals/king-charles-banknotes-revealed-by-bank-of-england/ . As Queen Elizabeth II was the first monarch to appear on a British banknote (1960), Charles III is the second, and the first king.
Wells Fargo to pay $3.7 billion over consumer fraud: https://apnews.com/article/wells-fargo-consumer-loan-violations-a67b9070da60e5cb5134db6de364c747 . WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/wells-fargo-reaches-3-7-billion-deal-with-regulators-over-consumer-banking-11671546132 . So why does anyone do business with this company? They have screwed their customers over and over and over again.
WSJ: Argentine players have to be airlifted out of the celebration of their victory: https://www.wsj.com/articles/argentinas-world-cup-champions-airlifted-from-celebration-as-fans-slow-caravan-11671571673 .
WSJ: Soccer/football officially arrives in the US as a mega-sport: https://www.wsj.com/articles/world-cup-final-argentina-france-draws-record-16-8-million-viewers-for-fox-11671562664 . The Journal, as usual, misses the story. The 2026 World Cup will be in North America, spread over 12 venues, 9 of which will be in the US. So think about the advertising revenues for that event … The Journal needs to get some staff who can actually report on business …