US COVID health emergency extended: https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/other/u-s-extends-covid-19-public-health-emergency-declaration/ar-AA12WeEl?cvid=18fd55f483d840a6977f92ebef7fb19f . This extension of the public health emergency for 90 days allows continuation of the Medicaid expansion and higher payments to hospitals. WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/biden-administration-renews-covid-19s-emergency-status-11665697704 .
Long COVID has high persistency: https://www.usnews.com/news/top-news/articles/2022-10-13/long-covid-at-12-months-persists-at-18-months-study-shows . This study found that for 197 patients reporting long COVID symptoms 12 months after infection, 61% reported continuing symptoms at 18 months.
Pfizer’s Omicron-specific booster trial data shows substantial antibody benefit: https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2022-10-13/pfizer-early-trial-data-suggests-updated-covid-19-booster-protects-against-omicron-subvariants-ba-4-ba-5 . WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/pfizers-new-omicron-targeting-booster-produces-strong-immune-response-11665671737 . Still more: https://www.wsj.com/articles/omicron-fall-booster-shot-11661953623 .
Potential Pacific Northwest COVID surge: https://apnews.com/article/health-covid-seattle-washington-12f3440d9f254788503de7ae8c9969ea . The speculation in this article is based on the current European surge.
Ringo’s rebound COVID cancels tour: https://people.com/music/ringo-starr-tests-positive-covid-again-rebound-infection/ .
WSJ: Abortion bans heighten dangers of medical emergencies: https://www.wsj.com/articles/doctors-struggle-with-navigating-abortion-bans-in-medical-emergencies-11665684225 .
Core inflation remains strong: https://www.huffpost.com/entry/inflation-accelerated-september_n_63480e79e4b0e376dc09a533 . The month-to-month increase was 0.6%. Let’s suppose that was rounding, and the figure was actually 0.55%. Times 12, that’s 6.6%, exactly the year-to-year core inflation figure. Any way you slice this, core inflation has not cooled off.
The article’s comment that “rents have started to decline” is irrelevant to this analysis. The lagging nature of directional changes in rent has always been a feature of this calculation. As expected, service cost increases have remained strong. So there is nothing out of the ordinary in this month’s calculation. There is as yet no viable argument that core inflation has cooled off. WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/inflation-expands-beyond-supply-chain-struggles-to-service-sector-11665676625 . Still more: https://www.wsj.com/articles/us-inflation-september-2022-consumer-price-index-11665628037 .
So why did the stock market stage a massive rally today? WSJ: https://www.wsj.com/articles/global-stocks-markets-dow-update-10-13-2022-11665656917 . As there are no rational reasons, some suggest that this was a technical rally as hedge funds had to unwind certain out-of-favor bets. Others point to the rally in UK stocks, although that rally was based on problems peculiar to the UK and have nothing to do with underlying stock values: https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-k-markets-rally-as-investors-bet-government-will-roll-back-tax-plans-11665671654 . Let’s see what happens over the next 3 market days.
WSJ: Fed minutes show increasing concern about persistent inflation: https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-minutes-show-concerns-of-more-persistent-high-inflation-11665597721 . Me too. More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/inflation-report-seals-case-for-0-75-point-fed-rate-rise-in-november-11665667815 .
WSJ: Mortgage rates jump 0.25% in a week: https://www.wsj.com/articles/mortgage-rates-hit-6-92-a-20-year-high-11665669624 . Rates will continue to rise. The housing market appears to be screeching to a halt. So the next step should be a drop in home prices nationwide.
2023 Social Security increase will be 8.7%: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/13/social-security-cola-will-be-8point7percent-in-2023-highest-increase-in-40-years.html . As this affects 71 million recipients, many of whom rely on Social Security as their primary or sole source of income, this increase adds to future inflation. Yes, for the most part this makes up for rent and other increases people have seen during 2022, but that does not reduce its inflationary effect. This is also not great news for the Social Security trust fund, as outflows continue to increase rapidly. WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/social-security-benefits-to-increase-in-2023-11665665206 .
WSJ: US banks will report significant drop in profits: https://www.wsj.com/articles/rising-rates-uncertain-economy-expected-to-take-a-toll-on-bank-profits-11665661359 . However, the stocks with the largest increases in today’s market rally were … banks. One is reminded of the Alan Greenspan phrase, irrational exuberance.
Albertson’s in late-stage merger talks with Kroger: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/13/shares-of-albertsons-jump-on-report-of-potential-merger-with-grocery-giant-kroger.html . These are the two major grocers in the West. The merger is in my view highly anticompetitive. We will see if DOJ’s renewed interest in antitrust will spark action against this combination. WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/albertsons-seeks-online-safety-with-kroger-11665691095 . The Journal writer has likely never visited these stores in the West. Regional market share makes a big difference in antitrust. Also, I don’t see a grocery chain that could pick up the divested stores and end up with a profitable enterprise. It would make much more sense for a large number of stores to simply close.
WSJ: Evergrande debt problems ripple through Chinese economy: https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-evergrandes-debt-crisis-fallout-losses-layoffs-and-more-defaults-11665651773 .
WSJ: Russia continues attacks on civilians with suicide drones: https://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-launches-drone-strikes-across-ukraine-11665652126 .
Members of Laxalt family endorse Catherine Cortez Masto: https://apnews.com/article/elections-nevada-reno-catherine-cortez-masto-congress-c3706bd60adc47d8f1a4639f9521d8ee . This could be important in this tight Senate race. However, a similar effort by Paul Gosar’s family in Arizona did not derail his bid for the US House. The statewide nature of Senate races may help Masto here.
Good news: Alex Jones is completely screwed: https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/attorney-sandy-hook-families-nearly-1-billion-alex-jones-owes-very-likely-to-go-up-074048575.html . Key to this entire discussion, compensatory damages for intentional conduct are not dischargeable in bankruptcy. I agree with Alex Jones that there is no way he will ever pay this amount, so the punitive damages are somewhat irrelevant. However, Jones is a fool if he thinks anything like his existing lifestyle will survive this verdict. That was the entire point of the plaintiffs’ pursuit of this case.
As to the punitive damages comment, the comment about “no limit” is incorrect as a practical matter. For example, an appeals court would likely overturn a multiplier higher than 10. I would guess that a multiplier of 2 to 4 times could withstand appeal, because the behavior was so heinous, long term and repeated. Again, most important is that Jones cannot escape the compensatory damages. That hopefully will shut this a**hole and his company down for good. And I do mean “for good”.
Insanity defense saves Nicolas Cruz’ life: https://news.yahoo.com/nikolas-cruz-verdict-parkland-shooting-trial-death-penalty-life-prison-154605161.html . However, it is not surprising the deliberations were short. The jury’s only options were death or life in prison, as Cruz admitted guilt. So even a minority of jurors holding the view of no death penalty could easily drive this result. UPDATE: The jury foreman indicates that even though all jurors agreed to the aggravating factors, three jurors found the mitigating factors (Cruz suffers from fetal alcohol syndrome) as overcoming the aggravating factors. As in Florida a death penalty recommendation must be unanimous, that ended further deliberation. WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/nikolas-cruz-jury-recommends-life-in-prison-for-parkland-school-killings-11665676568 .
January 6 committee unanimously votes to subpoena Orange Julius: https://news.yahoo.com/jan-6-key-takeaways-from-what-may-be-the-house-committees-final-hearing-221208300.html . WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/house-jan-6-committee-hearing-to-feature-new-video-testimony-no-live-witnesses-11665630492 . So with 2-1/2 months left in this Congress, OJ can easily run out the clock on this subpoena. Also, in the unlikely event that OJ showed, he would take the Fifth. However, the committee apparently determined that getting the subpoena on the record was necessary to show their attempts to be complete, and to document OJ’s expected non-cooperation.
The hearing also documented that OJ’s plan to declare victory regardless of the vote count came months before the election: https://news.yahoo.com/trump-planned-to-falsely-declare-victory-months-prior-to-2020-election-jan-6-committee-183709946.html . Since there are multiple videos of him claiming before the election that he could only lose if there was fraud, this finding is hardly shocking. However, OJ admitted privately that he had actually lost. So OJ is the person committing fraud relative to the election.
Prior Congressional subpoenas of Presidents: https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-president-subpoenaed-congress/story?id=91475653 .