Eligibility for Omicron-specific COVID booster: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/20/omicron-specific-booster-shots-are-weeks-away-eligibility-guide.html . Note that Pfizer’s booster is likely to become available before Moderna’s. The booster timing issue is in my view a non-issue – get the booster as soon as you’re eligible and it’s available. The article speaks as if the 4 months of protection is a definitive period. It’s not. Protection just declines over time. The new booster is Omicron-specific, and that’s the current dominant variant. So you should obtain that protection as soon as it’s available to you. However, I will likely wait for the Moderna booster since I prefer Moderna’s product.
Monkeypox vaccine manufacturing in US: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/monkeypox-doses-ready-by-december-michigan-manufacturer-162935522.html . Once again, we have failed at contact tracing, allowing this disease to spread rapidly. Even though we had an existing vaccine, it has not gotten into enough arms quickly enough to control the spread.
There are several other problems associated with controlling this disease that haven’t been discussed. First, it is typically nonfatal. Second, its initial spread has been by male homosexual contact. As such, the disease was seen as a “gay” disease. Thus, bisexual men had significant social incentives not to report their infections. Third, the global success in eliminating smallpox has eliminated the need to use the smallpox vaccine. So while much of the older population retains protection against monkeypox, younger generations represent a new infection opportunity.
WSJ: Weekly jobless claims steady at 250,000: https://www.wsj.com/articles/worker-filings-for-jobless-claims-held-nearly-steady-last-week-11660827848 .
WSJ: US companies bring back jobs sent abroad: https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-companies-on-pace-to-bring-home-record-number-of-overseas-jobs-11660968061 . The recent supply chain disruptions make this corporate move obvious. However, many of these jobs will be automated out of existence before they return. Also, the new “two axes” economic model and national security interests both support the current movement of work back to the US.
UK tests online voting: https://www.wsj.com/articles/voters-in-u-k-cast-ballots-online-in-test-for-internet-voting-11660993200 .
WSJ: Ukraine drone hits Russian Black Sea fleet headquarters in Crimea: https://www.wsj.com/articles/drone-hits-headquarters-of-russias-black-sea-fleet-in-crimea-11660991264 . It’s no wonder the Russian tourists went home.
Florida hate speech multiplies: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-election/gop-candidate-florida-house-booted-twitter-post-shooting-federal-agent-rcna44020 . So this loser makes a specific but broad-based threat against federal law enforcement, and his punishment is being kicked off Twitter? I support the First Amendment and free speech. However, this speech has no socially redeeming value and it is inherently violent. We are in the process of separating “responsible” from “public official”.
Will lie-based hate speech clobber the GOP in November? https://apnews.com/article/2022-midterm-elections-abortion-presidential-connecticut-donald-trump-ea21ee30c7d436f44b08c22f88f4b878 . I sure as hell hope so. This is the antidote to the poison spread by Orange Julius, Ron DeMentis, Greg Abbott and all the other power-hungry slimeballs currently dominating the GOP.
Will Democrats “win” in November?: https://news.yahoo.com/new-polls-show-democrats-could-win-the-2022-midterms-should-you-believe-them-100037527.html . Well, I wouldn’t put much trust in this article. First, “win” remains undefined by the end of the article. A typical loss by the President’s party is 20 to 40 House seats in the off-year election. As we have reported, a 40-seat loss seems off the table, and my best current estimate is a 15 to 20 seat Republican majority (a 20 to 25 seat loss). However, Orange Julius’ legal problems dominate the news right now. That will continue to be good news for Democrats, along with the significant recently passed legislation.
Democrats currently look to gain Senate seats. So if they can limit their House loss to 4 seats (very difficult), Democrats would retain both Houses of Congress. And very significantly, Joe Manchin’s leverage would disappear. In my view, the best polling is Nate Silver’s 538, which currently looks like 226 Republicans to 209 Democrats, which is a 13 seat Democratic loss and an 8 seat Republican margin. This is because 218 seats is a majority, and 226 is 8 more than 218. However, Silver has consistently overstated Democratic wins in the last 6 years.
Specifically, Silver has consistently underestimated GOP turnout in competitive races. And so Democrats should focus on turning out Democrats in the 30 or so competitive House races. However, presumably Silver has adjusted his methods because of his consistent misses. Also, the Supreme Court’s decision overturning Roe may help turn out Democrats. So the Democrats have some hope of holding the House if they can magnify recent trends.
In summary, a Republican majority of 15 to 20 seats is a historical “win”. Democrats may do that well in limiting losses, or better. But what really matters (the true win) is who controls the House, and the Democrats remain significant underdogs to do that.