Mysteries of COVID “Paxlovid rebound”: https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2022/07/biden-paxlovid-covid-drug-rebound-infections/671009/ . So far there is conflicting information on how well Paxlovid works, who it should be prescribed to, and the rate of Paxlovid rebound. Rebound estimates in this article range between 2% and 50%! My view would be that unless a doctor’s practice is really large, the estimate of 25% to 50% is more anecdotal than reliable. Based on the article, my guess would be 15% to 20%, which is a very significant rebound rate. I also suspect results vary based on the strength of the person’s underlying immune system.
Monkeypox in children: https://abcnews.go.com/US/children-us-test-positive-monkeypox/story?id=87767655 .
Polio virus found in New York wastewater: https://www.voanews.com/a/taiwan-ranks-among-top-10-democracies-in-annual-index-/6438806.html .
CIA drone strike kills al-Zawahiri, leader of al-Qaida: https://apnews.com/article/ayman-al-zawahri-al-qaida-terrorism-biden-36e5f10256c9bc9972b252849eda91f2 . Biden addressed the American public this evening concerning the drone strike that killed al-Zawahiri on Saturday. WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-carried-out-first-known-counterrorism-strike-in-afghanistan-since-exit-11659391683 . Still more: https://www.wsj.com/articles/ayman-al-zawahiri-al-qaeda-leader-and-9-11-strategist-dies-at-71-11659397896 . Dies? Taken out.
First grain shipment leaves Ukraine: https://www.aol.com/news/relief-world-ukraine-grain-ship-034403839-120726139.html . Shipment of Ukrainian (and Russian) wheat is critical to relieve food shortages in Africa and Asia. WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-grain-shipment-departs-for-first-time-since-russian-invasion-11659338763 .
WSJ: Russia redeploys troops to southern Ukraine: https://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-redeploys-troops-in-ukraine-as-focus-of-conflict-turns-south-11659352602 . Translation: Russia admits the tide of war is turning against it and tries (too late) to reinforce its gains in the south.
Institutionalized inflation: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/rental-inflation-important-to-monitor-jp-morgan-124812871.html . The housing market is much more complex than this article indicates. However, it is true that rents have a built-in “catch-up” factor. Rents increase when the lease expires, and increase more for new renters than renewals. Current homeowners are being locked into their houses by their lower-than-market mortgage rate. Current renters locked into their current rental for the same reason.
There is, however, an increasing supply coming in the rental markets. Many homeowners who have to relocate will turn their existing house into a rental, in order to keep their low mortgage rate. Also, home sales are about to fall off a cliff because of higher interest rates. So, many of these homeowners will become landlords, willingly or unwillingly.
And by the way, all of this is a much bigger issue than gas or food prices.
WSJ: We babble about energy: https://www.wsj.com/articles/americas-new-energy-crisis-11659153633 . There are some interesting pieces of information in this article (it takes an average of over 3 years for new energy projects to connect to the grid, for example). Overall, the writer has no understanding of the energy market. Generally, energy should be treated as a utility. We do that for electricity, but not for oil and gas. Unregulated capitalism is not a great model for key supplies. However, the Journal’s simplistic biases prevent it from understanding that, let alone saying it.
Pelosi expected to visit Taiwan tomorrow: https://news.yahoo.com/first-jan-6-rioter-convicted-at-trial-sentenced-to-more-than-7-years-in-prison-201039433.html . Last week’s reporting that this visit was not listed on Pelosi’s released itinerary should have included an obvious disclaimer. An intended visit would not have been listed so as not to inflame tensions. Some reporting did make this disclaimer, but most did not. WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/nancy-pelosi-begins-asian-tour-in-singapore-as-china-again-warns-against-visiting-taiwan-11659358264 .
Taiwan’s “strong” democracy: https://www.voanews.com/a/taiwan-ranks-among-top-10-democracies-in-annual-index-/6438806.html . Taiwan is a strong democracy until China invades. Note that on the list where Taiwan is the world’s eighth-strongest democracy, the US is 26th (check the link in the article).
Hawley to vote no on NATO expansion: https://thehill.com/policy/defense/3582757-hawley-vows-to-vote-no-on-adding-sweden-and-finland-to-nato/ . Meanwhile, doctors report no signs of brain activity in Hawley and recommend he report to Ukraine for a spanking.
Meanwhile, OJ works on becoming even goofier: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/in-missouri-senate-race-with-two-erics-trump-endorses-eric/ar-AA10cqfb?cvid=9bdee4b2b81648cfa3d7ee3a3bc4f5be . As his spokesperson says, the statement speaks for itself.
Senate bipartisan bill would restore abortion rights: https://apnews.com/article/abortion-us-supreme-court-legislature-susan-collins-tim-kaine-f8c6691e7230cd42e4a0bc357efa79da . This action would put all Senators on the record on this question. It could also gain new meaning if the Democrats expand their thin Senate majority in November.
Lindsay Graham challenges Georgia subpoena regarding 2020 election interference: https://apnews.com/article/2022-midterm-elections-biden-georgia-atlanta-subpoenas-38394a276508e280dc2439e56d4a6520 . As the article notes, another member of Congress already tried (unsuccessfully) to evade a similar subpoena. Also, his lawyers try to quash the subpoena by testifying about the nature of his contact (legislative fact-finding). The Georgia fact-finders would therefore seem to have the right to hear that testimony under oath. So far, this looks like more run-out-the-clock BS.
Herschel Walker called pathological liar by aides: https://www.rawstory.com/pathological-liar-aides-question-hershel/ . So why are you working for this clearly unqualified person? The GOP needs to recommit itself to making democracy function.
January 6 insurrectionist receives 87 months in prison: https://news.yahoo.com/first-jan-6-rioter-convicted-at-trial-sentenced-to-more-than-7-years-in-prison-201039433.html . Reffitt, a Three Percenter, also threatened his family if they turned him in. WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/first-jan-6-rioter-convicted-by-jury-is-sentenced-to-87-months-11659384831 .
Nate Silver thinks Democrats’ chances in November are improving: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-political-environment-might-be-improving-for-democrats/ . In general, I think Nate does an excellent job. However, his polling was wrong in 2016, and his response was, well, we were less wrong than everybody else. That’s true. It’s also not satisfactory. The key thing pollsters seem to consistently miss is the turnout factor. Since Nate blew it in 2016, and again in 2020, let’s see if he’s learned anything in 2022.
Confusing tax rules surround inherited IRA’s: https://www.wsj.com/articles/irs-changes-guidelines-for-inherited-iras-causing-confusion-and-pushback-11659309278 . This becomes an additional tax planning issue for seniors who have IRA’s. If their children have noticeably higher tax brackets, the seniors should consider taking larger distributions during their own lifetimes.
WSJ: Why you should care about the ongoing real estate correction in China: https://www.wsj.com/articles/beijing-bets-the-house-on-infrastructure-11659361226 . As real estate represents about 25% of the Chinese economy, this situation will act as a drag on Chinese growth for years. That’s why we’ve been closely following Evergrande in this newsletter.
Browns quarterback suspended for 6 games over serial sexual assaults: https://sports.yahoo.com/nfl-suspends-deshaun-watson-6-games-for-personal-conduct-violations-122422200.html . Twenty-four women brought against Watson. Personally, I’d prefer he never take the field again. The NFL’s “desire to let the public know” they argued for a 1 year suspension demonstrates their cluelessness. Cut the public relations crap and get this jerk off the field.