US COVID cases and hospitalizations up: https://news.yahoo.com/u-sees-uptick-covid-cases-225555942.html . Remember that hospitalizations are a lagging indicator, and cases are undercounted by a factor of 7 or 8. Over two years in, and we have a poor handle on what is going on.
Majority of Americans have had COVID: https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/more-than-half-of-americans-show-signs-of-prior-covid-infection/ar-AAWCKfm?li=BBnb7Kz . The obvious conclusion is that Omicron is evading vaccine protection. Moderna’s vaccine update to include its omicron-targeted vaccine (the bivalent vaccine) is a wise response.
Six of 16 Shanghai districts reach “Zero COVID” status: https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2022-04-30/six-shanghai-districts-reach-zero-covid-status . That is, 10 have not.
China’s manufacturing weakens further in April: https://apnews.com/article/covid-health-business-changchun-beijing-90647aa7a6542cafb8be78301f2f4e5c . This is more evidence that a global economic slowdown is coming.
WSJ: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine strains global economic cooperation: https://www.wsj.com/articles/russias-war-in-ukraine-is-straining-global-economic-cooperation-11651318201 .
Latest news from Ukraine’s eastern front: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/kremlin-deploys-new-troops-to-ukraine-as-both-sides-gird-for-a-war-of-attrition/ar-AAWN0Lc?li=BBnb7Kz . The slowness of Russia’s offensive suggests they will not be able to take eastern Ukraine quickly. Some experts suggest that decisive battles could occur in the next two to four weeks. However, the Ukrainians have not really seized territory from the Russians in this war. They have most regained territory from which the Russians withdrew. This suggests a long slog.
The real question is whether the anti-tank firepower being delivered to the Ukrainians will actually achieve its mission. If Russia loses tanks in large numbers, their offensive on the eastern front could collapse: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/western-artillery-surging-into-ukraine-will-reshape-war-with-russia/ar-AAWM6L5?li=BBnb7Kz .
Mark Meadows fears taking responsibility for his actions: https://apnews.com/article/capitol-siege-subpoenas-mark-meadows-congress-02c86e2bf05363ac8d485f33b96ef87a . Clearly, Meadows’ text messages leaked. However, to accuse the Committee of intentionally leaking the documents to vilify him, without proof, is a nonstarter as a legal argument. The GOP has apparently become institutionally disconnected to the nature of truth. Meadows said this stuff (that is, it is the truth), and he is not entitled to confidentiality concerning this evidence which relates to an insurrection against the US government (involving Meadows as the president’s chief of staff, no less).
An alternative view of inflation: https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/theres-a-big-hole-in-the-feds-theory-of-inflation%e2%80%94incomes-are-falling-at-a-record-109percent-rate/ar-AAWHEFQ?li=BBnb7Kz . The rapid decline in disposable income is important news, and does suggest demand (and inflation) will fall. However, the Fed’s action is rather easily explained by politics. When the only tool you have is a hammer, every problem looks like a nail. The Fed raises interest rates in response to inflation, because that is their expected response.
For much of my career, the typical actuarial assumption was that a long-term interest rate looked like inflation plus two or three points. That is the long-term basis of the US bond market. We are so far away from that assumption right now that the Fed had to take action. Does this increase the possibility of a hard landing (that is, a recession)? Yes, but again politics and expectations demand the current Fed response.
Berkshire Hathaway suffers first quarter investment losses: https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/berkshire-hathaway-reports-drop-in-earnings-driven-by-investment-losses/ar-AAWMhXf?li=BBnb7Kz . I’m including this article because it provides some insight into how various sectors of the US economy are performing. Also, Warren Buffett looks all of 91 years old in this photo. WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/berkshire-hathaway-earnings-fall-on-investment-losses-11651321042 .
Amazon drops paid COVID leave: https://www.usnews.com/news/top-news/articles/2022-05-01/amazon-ends-covid-paid-leave-for-u-s-workers . Wait, so Amazon’s stock dropped 13% after they announced earnings, and this is their response? I don’t think belt-tightening at the warehouse is the best idea right now.
Naomi Judd passes: https://news.yahoo.com/naomi-judd-grammy-winning-duo-194208048.html . This is a quite unusual death announcement. When you say someone has died from “the disease of mental illness” and that no further details will be released, the implication is suicide. Still, this is a mystery which the public does not really need to pursue. WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/naomi-judd-of-grammy-winning-duo-the-judds-dies-at-76-11651352342 .
Biden’s comments at the WHCA dinner: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/biden-roasts-trump-and-himself-at-correspondents-dinner/ar-AAWNlCE?li=BBnb7Kz (USA Today). More Biden barbs: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/bidens-best-jokes-at-the-white-house-correspondents-dinner/ar-AAWMIJ8?li=BBnb7Kz (The Washington Post). Still more from Trevor Noah: https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/inside-white-house-correspondents-dinner-040625689.html .