In-hospital COVID transmission increases: https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/more-patients-are-getting-covid-19-during-hospital-stays-experts-worry-its-because-infected-healthcare-workers-are-sick-on-the-job/ar-AASPNRd?li=BBnb7Kz . Is anyone surprised that bringing sick healthcare workers back to hospital work would cause disease transmission? There is, however, a secondary cause. More people now arrive at hospitals for other health problems and are then discovered to have COVID when tested upon admission. As this newsletter constantly advises, asymptomatic cases are dangerous because of unwitting disease spread.
WSJ: Ongoing pressure on US hospitals: https://www.wsj.com/articles/france-prepares-to-vote-on-stricter-covid-laws-for-unvaccinated-people-11642333051 .
WSJ: US COVID test distribution status: https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-test-distribution-plans-put-more-pressure-on-u-s-supply-11642338072 .
Ocasio-Cortez: CDC isolation guidelines “sociopathic”: https://www.yahoo.com/news/alexandria-ocasio-cortez-says-covid-234011118.html . As readers know, in my view the CDC’s shortened 5 day isolation period is too short. However, that guideline is for persons showing no symptoms after exposure. AOC apparently had noticeable but not severe symptoms.
However, given that up to half of COVID cases are asymptomatic, people may come out of isolation but still transmit the disease. Therefore, the CDC must modify the shortened guideline to require a negative test before release. The scarcity of tests is not a valid reason to risk further spread and (allegedly) tests will be much more available within the next two weeks.
America’s “COVID death rate” as measured by incompetents: https://www.newsweek.com/americas-covid-death-rate-drops-record-low-cases-reach-pandemic-high-1668256 . Apparently you can publish any old crap and call it an “imperfect measure”. For the benefit of non-actuarial readers, the numerator, COVID deaths, is fairly well agreed for most time periods, although there are some problems with reporting lags. There are also disagreements about what deaths should be attributed to COVID.
The denominator, COVID cases, is widely understood to be underreported in the US. In the early months of the pandemic, underreporting was estimated as high as 10 to 1. Estimates now are more like 2 or 3 to 1. That is partly because up to half of all cases are asymptomatic, and partly because people (and many doctors) do not report positive COVID test results.
But you can see that if case reporting is constantly improving, then the ratio given in the article would constantly drop, even if there is no change in the true underlying mortality rate. Additionally, you cannot divide deaths on one day by reported cases on that day, because death typically occurs well after discovery of an infection. And when cases occur in waves, deaths occur in delayed waves. The ratio suggested here is meaningless because these waves are out of sync.
There are mathematical techniques to adjust for all of these data and reporting problems. However, it is obvious the reporter and the sources in the article have no idea what those techniques are, or indeed what they are talking about.
WSJ: Immunization issues in the developing world: https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-shots-risk-displacing-immunizations-against-childhood-killers-in-developing-countries-11642338001 . This has already been a serious problem. The world has lost ground in the fight against polio due to the COVID disruption.
WSJ: US economic forecasts become darker: https://www.wsj.com/articles/omicron-inflation-drive-down-u-s-growth-outlook-11642345202 . Here is an article detailing WSJ’s quarterly economic survey: https://www.wsj.com/articles/economic-forecasting-survey-archive-11617814998 .
Oath Keepers plans for January 6: https://apnews.com/article/capitol-siege-oath-keepers-stewart-rhodes-0c30d5cb0724c623a27f2eb39da20285 . AP takes a deeper dive on the group’s founder and the government’s allegations about what happened in advance of January 6.
Tuskegee Airman Charles McGee dies at 102: https://apnews.com/article/kamala-harris-race-and-ethnicity-bc701d5f060a826a49e6fe88c53657c5 . No one is ever going to fly 409 combat missions ever again. Thank goodness.
The aftereffects of the underwater volcanic eruption near Tonga are almost unbelievable: https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/how-the-tonga-volcano-generated-a-shock-wave-around-the-world/ar-AASQ9vj?li=BBnb7Kz . The plume not only breached the ocean surface, it went up 100,000 feet (almost 20 miles) into the atmosphere. Alaskans heard the eruption (sonic boom). Two people in Peru drowned in the resulting tsunami. More: https://apnews.com/article/environment-and-nature-new-zealand-tsunamis-volcanic-eruptions-tonga-c2ffa1bb2ab6a2a3c7b85a875c96a9c7 .
Meanwhile, WSJ struggles to understand connectivity: https://www.wsj.com/articles/tonga-cut-off-after-volcanic-eruption-tsunami-11642296898 . According to this WSJ article, a variety of calls to Tonga “didn’t connect”. Then, an Internet monitoring service said connectivity “plummeted to zero”. The news articles in the prior paragraph tell us there is no connectivity because the eruption apparently severed the cables that run to Tonga.
WSJ: China’s economic growth is slowing: https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-gdp-grew-8-1-in-2021-though-momentum-slowed-in-fourth-quarter-11642386349 . And so is its birthrate: https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-population-barely-grew-in-2021-as-births-dropped-for-a-fifth-year-11642385947 . China will always be the historic example of what was wrong with the “One Child” policy. Specifically, the preference for a son meant murder, abandonment or export of little girls. This created a generation with a significant imbalance between men and women.
Refs pulled from playoffs for blown call: https://sports.yahoo.com/refs-from-raiders-bengals-game-not-expected-to-work-rest-of-playoffs-192826906.html . One of the refs mistakenly blew his whistle a split second before a Bengal caught a pass for a touchdown. Common sense would tell you it’s a touchdown. But NFL rules state that the play ends when the whistle sounds. My suspicion is that the refs knew what happened and used common sense. But that’s not their job.
While there were call controversies in my youth, their frequency has increased exponentially. Why is that? Perhaps it’s because the NFL is now huge business. Perhaps it’s because of legalization of betting on sports . More likely it’s because everything now generates arguments having a ferocity unbecoming a mature society.