Mortality statistics muddle from CDC: https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-science-health-pandemics-covid-19-pandemic-8117abd8e4367eaa6cb9b7ae78875734 . As many readers here have considerable expertise with these statistics, you will undoubtedly notice problems in the numbers reported by CDC. First, it is well-agreed that US deaths from the pandemic currently exceed 810,000, with estimates as high as 830,000. Secondly, obviously all of those COVID deaths are in 2020 or 2021. The CDC figure of 351,000 for 2020 is in good agreement with other sources. So third, COVID deaths for 2021 must already exceed 459,000.
COVID deaths for 2021 will likely exceed the 2020 total by about 120,000. Mr. Anderson’s estimate of 19,000 additional COVID deaths (370,000 – 351,000) cannot possibly be right. This is not that difficult, and the error is obviously huge. Other sources do agree with CDC that overdose deaths will exceed 100,000 for the first time in 2021. Also, deaths from other causes may be impacted by lack of access to care or persons delaying treatment. So while further analysis is needed on the level of total 2021 deaths, they seem likely to exceed total 2020 deaths.
In turn, as reported yesterday, US life expectancy for 2020 dropped 1.8 years to 77. Because the US population also declined from 2019, US life expectancy for 2021 will likely be lower than 77. Two straight years of decline in this figure is absolutely unprecedented.
One additional tidbit from this article argues that the revision to the 1.8 year drop came from a lag in mortality reporting for states that switched electronic systems in the past two years. Thus, yesterday’s attribution of the change to use of Medicare statistics may well be accurate, but does not tell the entire story.
As this newsletter has regularly documented over the past 18 months, COVID deaths are being intentionally understated both globally and in the US, particularly in red states: https://www.aol.com/news/uncounted-inaccurate-death-certificates-across-090012935.html . I continue to believe that COVID death analysis is better done globally based on excess death analysis, and that the same is true for the United States.
Omicron in all 50 states: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/omicron-hits-50-states-less-month-entering-us-rcna9692 . While it is good news that South Africa’s Omicron wave may have peaked, there is every possibility that there will be additional waves. Any expectation in the US is certainly premature, but also likely unrealistic.
WHO: Omicron severity will be determined in 3 to 4 weeks: https://news.trust.org/item/20211222161426-lwzt8 . This timing seems about right. Current data is inadequate, but the world needs an estimate. As previously discussed, the fundamental difficulty with the estimate is that all the base lines are constantly changing. The base lines include the percentage of the population vaccinated or boosted, treatment protocols for COVID, and the timing of access to care.
Meanwhile, a South African study finds Omicron is milder than Delta: https://www.aol.com/news/africa-study-suggests-lower-risk-095031512-104345502.html . WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-booster-offers-substantial-protection-against-symptomatic-infection-with-omicron-study-finds-11640191103 . Still more: https://www.wsj.com/articles/to-limit-omicron-singapore-freezes-ticket-sales-for-quarantine-free-travel-11640165362 .
FDA authorizes Pfizer oral antiviral: https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-pfizer-medication-f5f65e7e61d6aa9c7dfa193053e8878a . WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/pfizers-covid-19-pill-authorized-in-u-s-11640193220 . However, it will take months to ramp up to adequate supply. Merck’s pill is also expected to be approved shortly. However, trials have shown that Pfizer’s pill has superior performance and milder side effects. Still, these drugs are game-changers PROVIDED people take them early in their illness. PLEASE ramp up distribution of COVID test kits: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/us-biden-free-rapid-covid-tests-what-can-learn-uk-rcna9621 .
The US continues to lag in testing: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/dec/22/us-covid-test-lines-shortages . While I agree with Jason that the 165 million kits could run into order fulfillment problems, the 350 million would be a problem in itself. There are only 331 million Americans, and 80 million of them are children. That gets us to a maximum of 250 million orders even before we consider how many will not order for one reason or another.
WSJ: Benefits of Remdesivir in reducing COVID hospitalizations: https://www.wsj.com/articles/gileads-remdesivir-covid-19-therapy-cuts-risk-of-hospitalization-in-study-11640210401 .
Common health issues raise the risk of severe COVID: https://www.aol.com/news/common-health-issues-raise-risk-163446824-175333988.html .
COVID vaccine safety for children: https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2021-12-23/is-the-covid-19-vaccine-safe-for-children .
WSJ: Novavax says its vaccine effective against Omicron: https://www.wsj.com/articles/novavax-says-early-data-shows-covid-19-vaccine-protects-against-omicron-11640211910 .
Cal State requires boosters for spring term: https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-health-education-california-california-state-university-1ac6b32e0684ae23c80607f9bbe2740a . Cal State is the nation’s largest 4-year university, with 23 campuses.
US Army reports progress on universal coronavirus vaccine: https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2021-12-22/u-s-army-reports-progress-on-covid-vaccine-that-fights-all-variants . The skeptics have strong points here. Omicron, for example, has over 30 mutations on the spike. Other universal COVID vaccines are focusing on more stable areas on the virus surface. And the Army is only at Phase 1 trials. Many drugs fail at this phase, and you must complete three phases of trials.
Fauci warns against large holiday gatherings: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/large-holiday-gatherings-in-us-not-safe-even-if-boosted-fauci-says/ar-AAS45uH?li=BBnb7Kz . As Omicron has raced to dominance, this is unfortunate but wise advice.
WSJ: Biden tests negative after contact with infected staffer: https://www.wsj.com/articles/biden-tests-negative-for-covid-19-after-close-contact-with-staffer-who-contracted-virus-11640195838 .
WHO head argues booster program may prolong pandemic: https://www.voanews.com/a/who-chief-warns-covid-booster-programs-may-prolong-pandemic/6365386.html . Sorry, he lost this argument a long time ago. As we have documented, many middle and lower income countries have inadequate distribution systems. Sending them vaccines ends up in wasted vaccines.
WSJ: Omicron increases interest in boosters: https://www.wsj.com/articles/omicron-spread-prompts-more-interest-in-booster-shots-than-new-vaccinations-11640169006 .
College linebacker faces COVID fraud charges: https://sports.yahoo.com/former-usc-linebacker-facing-12-charges-after-allegedly-filing-fraudulent-covid-19-relief-claims-132145244.html . Note that his brother faces similar charges. Both brothers transferred away from USC after the brother’s suspension. USC likely avoids NCAA sanctions by cooperating with investigators and making this public. It is remarkable that so many football and basketball players have involved themselves in COVID fraud. This cannot be coincidence.
WSJ: COVID fraud may exceed $100 billion: https://www.wsj.com/articles/thefts-of-covid-19-relief-funds-total-at-least-100-billion-secret-service-says-11640202072 . As described here last year, the prior administration was very poor at oversight. Fraud is the inevitable consequence.
WSJ: The details of hospital pricing inequities: https://www.wsj.com/articles/hospital-prices-healthcare-insurance-rental-networks-11640188729 .
Supreme Court sets argument over Biden vaccine rules for January 7: https://www.wsj.com/articles/supreme-court-sets-oral-arguments-on-biden-covid-19-vaccine-rules-11640218967 .
The ongoing presence of the Great Resignation: https://www.cnbc.com/video/2021/12/22/workers-are-rethinking-their-priorities-and-corporations-are-not-prepared-pollster-frank-luntz.html . Again, we are moving through a major economic dislocation. As is often the case, corporations are in a reactive position.
Biden to speak to the nation on January 6: https://www.aol.com/news/biden-speak-jan-6-anniversary-183854093-194035974.html . We know 2022 is an election year. But it looks to get fired up before the outdoor Christmas lights are down.
DOJ cracks the Proud Boys: https://apnews.com/article/new-york-capitol-siege-electoral-college-congress-proud-boys-ffd1a74ca36cdd699223a463c9cd7766 . Note that this guy is not one of the leaders, is cooperating with authorities, and has agreed to a sentence in excess of 4 years. That creates a minimum for every other Proud Boy and Oath Keeper. This is a major turning point in the government’s prosecution of January 6 defendants.
Chris Hayes calls out Tucker Carlson: https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/chris-hayes-tells-tucker-carlson-to-grow-up-as-he-slams-people-celebrating-kyle-rittenhouse-074123647.html . This is not only an appalling spectacle, but an encouragement of copycat behavior. We absolutely do not need armed citizens at public protests.
New Teslas allow driver to play video games while the car is in motion: https://www.autoblog.com/2021/12/22/tesla-passenger-play-video-games-nhtsa-investigation/ . This would seem to be just a software fix, but what a screw-up! WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/teslas-touch-screen-gaming-probed-by-u-s-auto-safety-regulator-11640187212 .
WSJ: Evergrande says its oversight committee is engaging with creditors: https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-evergrande-says-state-backed-risk-team-will-engage-with-creditors-11640174064 .
COVID outbreak forces Texas A&M to withdraw from Gator Bowl: https://sports.yahoo.com/report-texas-am-unable-to-play-in-gator-bowl-due-to-covid-19-181502262.html . However, Rutgers will likely replace them: https://sports.yahoo.com/rutgers-expected-replace-texas-m-020743755.html . Rutgers is 5-7. This is likely to be an ugly, one-sided game.