News for December 17 — Latest Omicron Study: Not Good

Latest Omicron study: Not good news: https://www.aol.com/news/1-omicron-more-likely-reinfect-172617129-213601532.html . This British study finds Omicron no less virulent than Delta and 5 times more transmissible. Hope has been growing that Omicron cases are milder than Delta. Prior transmissibility estimates have been a multiplier of 2 to 3. The problem in estimating these ranges is that all of the parts are moving in real time. The 122,062 cases of Delta in the study is a good baseline. The 1,846 cases of Omicron is too small a sample to draw strong conclusions. Still, Neil Ferguson is highly respected, so we should not dismiss these results.

White House warns unvaccinated about COVID winter: https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/unvaccinated-winter-severe-illness-death-white-house/story?id=81817431 .

Omicron “tidal wave” may be a tsunami: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/tidal-wave-omicron-could-put-us-covid-19-surge-into-overdrive/ar-AARVAzp?li=BBnb7Kz . Note that Pfizer predicts the pandemic will last until 2024. The stock market certainly has not priced in this possibility.

Omicron surges to 80% of cases in Miami-Dade County in just two weeks: https://www.local10.com/news/local/2021/12/17/this-is-unprecedented-omicron-causes-80-of-coronavirus-cases-in-miami-dade-in-2-weeks/ . This level of infectiousness has never been seen in previous COVID variants.

Omicron cases double every 1.5 days in parts of the UK: https://www.wsj.com/articles/omicron-seen-doubling-every-1-days-in-parts-of-u-k-11639747057 . Again, this level of infectiousness outpaces all other COVID variants by a wide margin. WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/omicron-variant-now-dominates-in-england-and-scotland-health-data-show-11639769289 .

WSJ: Omicron may be dominant US variant within a week: https://www.wsj.com/articles/omicron-seen-doubling-every-1-days-in-parts-of-u-k-11639747057 . This projection seems a bit too aggressive, but given our spotty genomic sequencing, the possibility cannot be ruled out.

The political vaccination divide is killing the GOP: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/dec/17/counties-voted-trump-higher-covid-death-rate .

Omicron arrives in Kentucky: https://www.lex18.com/news/coronavirus/kentucky-has-its-first-case-of-the-omicron-variant-gov-beshear-says . At least 39 states have now reported Omicron cases.

Breakthrough infections and COVID super-immunity: https://www.aol.com/news/full-vaccination-against-covid-19-110257986.html . The safety hierarchy described in the article is the proper way to analyze the safest protection. The use of “super-immunity” may grab headlines, but it is misleading.

COVID test demands surge in advance of holidays: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/covid-testing-demand-spikes-ahead-christmas-lines-sites-rcna9140 .

Pfizer to test third COVID vaccine dose in children under 5: https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2021/12/17/1065200225/pfizer-third-dose-covid-vaccine-infants-young-children . Two doses do not provide meaningful protection. WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/pfizer-delays-plans-to-seek-authorization-of-covid-19-vaccine-for-young-children-11639772874 .

Pfizer vaccine involves less heart danger than Moderna vaccine: https://www.aol.com/news/moderna-covid-19-shot-more-104102627-111939448.html . The risk is quite rare. Getting COVID is more dangerous to the heart than either vaccine.

Moderna halts vaccine patent fight with feds: https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/moderna-halts-patent-fight-over-coronavirus-vaccine-with-federal-government/ar-AARW0F2?li=BBnb7Kz . WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/moderna-drops-pursuit-of-u-s-patent-for-key-component-of-covid-19-vaccine-11639782753 .

FDA permanently allows abortion pills by mail: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/fda-permanently-allow-abortion-pills-mail-major-win-advocates-n1286183 . The regimen is apparently effective up to 70 days (10 weeks) of pregnancy. This should put a rather large dent in the GOP BS to deny a woman control over her body. Still, abortion is medical treatment and should be legally available. Illegal abortions are dangerous to the woman’s health.

CDC endorses school test-to-stay strategy: https://www.wsj.com/articles/cdc-endorses-test-to-stay-strategy-for-k-12-schools-11639760300 .

DeMentis announces vaccine alternative treatment: https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/ron-desantis-announces-new-therapy-for-floridians-that-helps-prevent-covid-infection/ar-AARVLNm?li=BBnb7Kz . This will protect 1600 Floridians. The estimated cost is $32 million or more: https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/astrazeneca-antibody-works-prevent-treat-covid-19-longer-term-studies-2021-11-18/ . Presumably, these antibody cocktails will be used only for the immunocompromised or other who cannot benefit from the vaccine. While the article says Florida purchased these vaccines, the federal government has purchased 700,000 doses. If allocated based on population, Florida would receive 35,000 doses. So what exactly is DeMentis claiming credit for?

Military personnel discharged for refusing vaccine mandate order: https://www.insider.com/103-us-marines-6-army-leaders-fired-for-refusing-vaccine-2021-12 .

Sixth Circuit reinstates vaccinate-or-test workplace rule: https://www.aol.com/news/u-appeals-court-reinstates-covid-001742179-012324894.html . Suddenly the administration has two major victories in the workplace mandate arena. Again, the Sixth Circuit is a more-conservative-than-average appellate court.

NFL postpones some games due to COVID issues: https://sports.yahoo.com/browns-raiders-game-reportedly-moved-to-monday-due-to-covid-19-outbreak-on-browns-193151145.html .

Australian Taylor Swift album party a superspreader event: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/taylor-swift-album-party-becomes-superspreader-event-nearly-100-test-p-rcna9125 .

South African COVID hospitalization rate drops: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/south-africa-hospitalization-rate-plunges-in-omicron-wave/ar-AARU5G2?li=BBnb7Kz . South Africa’s population has an average age more than 10 years younger than ours. Thus, this data is difficult to apply to the US or other countries.

Capitol insurrectionist receives 63 months in prison for attacking Capitol police: https://apnews.com/article/joe-biden-capitol-siege-university-of-kentucky-b7a82e7205634d7f2e9767e1cfa10ccf . The sentence imposed is the most severe so far for any insurrectionist.

Roger Stone invokes Fifth Amendment in January 6 committee appearance: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/roger-stone-invokes-fifth-amendment-appearance-jan-6-committee-n1286223 .

Orange Julius is getting nuttier, and yes that is possible: https://www.huffpost.com/entry/trump-bandies-about-anti-semitic-tropes-in-interview-with-israeli-reporter_n_61bcf236e4b0c7d8b88fae7c . White supremacists are people whose best characteristic is their (pink) skin color. So I can see what racists see in this guy. Beyond that, not so much.

WSJ: Central banks around the world raise interest rates: https://www.wsj.com/articles/central-banks-around-the-world-raise-rates-as-fed-prepares-move-11639750006 .

WSJ: S&P declares Evergrande in default: https://www.wsj.com/articles/s-p-joins-major-credit-raters-in-declaring-china-evergrande-in-default-11639747751 . Short of aggressive intervention by China’s government, Evergrande is slipping past the point of no return.

Urban Meyer’s press has gone from bad to horrible: https://dailycaller.com/2021/12/17/brett-mcmurphy-unnamed-head-coach-urban-meyer-everyone-hates-that-motherfker/ . Wow …