LA strict vaccination mandate starts tomorrow: https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-entertainment-lifestyle-business-yoga-8a1373530c5bc46b396e6af9559911bb . The wild card in all of this is the need for boosters. We really do not yet know what (if any) course of vaccination will provide long-lasting protection.
WSJ: The link between vaccines and myocarditis: https://www.wsj.com/articles/researchers-probe-link-between-covid-19-vaccines-and-myocarditis-11636290002 . Even before vaccines, myocarditis affected more younger males than other age groups.
Gottlieb on pandemic end “in sight”: https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/covid-pandemic-child-vaccine-delta-variant-1254480/ . Note that his explanation “in detail” no longer includes the prediction that the pandemic will be over in two months. With that removed, we are just talking the general endgame in the US which we all hope for. Wide availability of an effective oral antiviral is indeed an important component in turning the tide. BUT STILL the most effective suppression approach involves contact tracing, testing and isolation.
So, reflecting the previous analysis in the “two months” link above, how long will it take for COVID to “burn through” the unvaccinated? My best guess is 6 months minimum. At some point, we will argue about what the end of the pandemic looks like in the US. But globally, the pandemic will run much longer. Vaccination levels remain low in Eastern Europe, Africa and much of Southeast Asia.
WSJ: Vaccine mandate debate at NIH: https://www.wsj.com/articles/vaccine-mandate-debate-makes-it-to-top-federal-research-agency-11636286400 . I agree with those who say Dr. Memoli’s position is dangerous and irresponsible. Yes, he is a doctor and does vaccine trials. But he’s dead wrong about not mandating vaccines. He should lose his job if he fails to comply with the government mandate,
NYC, 9 unions settle on vaccine mandate rules: https://abc7ny.com/union-vaccines-nyc-vaccine-mandate-fdny-covid-19-vaccination/11198434/ .
WSJ: Relaxing workplace mask mandates: https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-rules-on-face-masks-at-the-office-are-changing-11636281002 . Oregon still mandates mask wearing inside all retail businesses. I’m totally fine with that.
Maps show Europe’s COVID surge by country: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/all/covid-s-resurgence-europe-3-charts-n1283408 . Eastern Europe has the lowest vaccination rates and the highest increases in new infections. More: https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2021/11/covid-19-cases-surge-across-europe.html .
China’s lockdowns are leaking: https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2021/11/8/china-reports-89-covid-cases-as-outbreaks-grow . As we have said ad nauseum, lockdowns have only one purpose: to buy time for vaccination. China’s vaccines have lower levels of effectiveness than Western vaccines. As such, there will be ongoing problems. And this is true even if you accept China’s case and death reporting at face value.
Let’s look at this from a different angle. At best, COVID will become endemic and there will be regional flare-ups across the globe. The question is the size of the flare-ups. China is having problems even with its almost full closure to the outside world. An effective oral antiviral could change COVID management everywhere, including China. But antivirals help those who already have COVID. As such, they don’t effectively address disease spread.
Lockdowns are expensive and disruptive to the economy. So at some point they must be abandoned in favor of vaccination. And the countries with the most effective vaccines and the highest vaccination rates will do the best medically and economically over time.
A review of experts’ pandemic predictions: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/nov/07/experts-worst-pandemic-predictions . Um, who’s still shaking hands? Nobody around here. Elbow bumps, maybe.
WSJ: Ongoing supply chain disruptions: https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-economic-rebound-from-covid-19-was-easy-now-comes-the-hard-part-11636299941 . Note that 80% of executives believe the worst of supply chain disruption is ahead of us. A third believe the disruptions will continue past 2022.
Prevea Health passes on Aaron Rogers: https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/06/business/aaron-rodgers-prevea-health-covid-vaccine/index.html . So this week Aaron Rodgers learned that “immunized” means “unvaccinated”, and that actions have consequences. Rodgers also learned that when BS talks, money walks. Bigger problems may lie ahead: https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/nfl-world-reacts-to-the-latest-state-farm-news/ar-AAQq9Tn?li=BBnb7Kz .
Another summary of the contents of the infrastructure bill: https://apnews.com/article/joe-biden-technology-business-broadband-internet-congress-d89d6bb1b39cd9c67ae9fc91f5eb4c0d .
The OJ House tribe reaches new levels of lunacy: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/must-be-eliminated-trump-republicans-vow-to-oust-gop-members-who-voted-for-infrastructure/ar-AAQp6fy?li=BBnb7Kz . Do they think we’ve forgotten that Orange Julius (and other past presidents) have tried and failed to pass an infrastructure bill? These loyalty tests for the Orange Furor have nothing to do with governance – which is totally in line with OJ’s understanding of government.
In other OJ tribe lunacy, the right goes after Big Bird for vaccination announcement: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/big-bird-vaccine-announcement-sparks-backlash-conservatives-gop-n1283425 . Maybe Big Bird got the shot in his right wing. Of course children are at risk from COVID, including long COVID. Anyone who reads and doesn’t cheer when watching Fox Not-the-News knows that. Lyin’ Ted even dubbed this “government propaganda”. Is that because Sesame Street is on PBS? I don’t think there are enough therapists to straighten out his two kids.
Cracks in the GOP support for the Orange Furor: https://www.axios.com/rick-scott-nrsc-murkowski-tshibaka-fd931cc8-6be6-46e0-a133-3c61d92a98fb.html . Murkowski has held her job through the support of Native Americans and some Democrats. She could still keep her job even if OJ’s candidate beats her in the GOP primary. In 2010, she lost the GOP primary but was re-elected as a write-in candidate: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lisa_Murkowski .