US reopens land borders in November: https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-lifestyle-covid-19-pandemic-air-travel-health-c3f7e2b8feca4c8cdaf4301ae9c81a79 . WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/biden-administration-to-ease-covid-19-travel-restrictions-at-canada-and-mexico-land-border-crossings-11634095283 .
Vaccine doesn’t cause infertility. COVID might: https://www.nbcnews.com/health/sexual-health/covid-vaccine-doesnt-cause-infertility-disease-might-rcna2868 . This type of misinformation only succeeds with people who don’t understand vaccination. However, as recently reported, some pregnant women are fearful of the vaccine, to their detriment.
Military archbishop says Catholic troops can seek religious exemption: https://www.politico.com/news/2021/10/12/catholic-troops-covid-vaccine-mandate-515864 . While I understand his reason, he should have emphasized that the Pope views taking the vaccine as a moral responsibility.
Predicting the next COVID surge: https://bestlifeonline.com/delta-surge-midwest-west-news/ . People want to know the answer to this question. But no one knows. Alaska and West Virginia are already surging, so that’s not much of a prediction. Indoors in the Upper Midwest is reasonable. But the real basis of prediction should be vaccination rates. They are better assessed by county than by state. My prediction/understanding is that rural areas remain quite vulnerable.
German company CureVac leaves COVID vaccine race: https://www.usnews.com/news/top-news/articles/2021-10-12/curevac-to-withdraw-first-generation-covid-19-vaccine-candidate . WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/curevac-shelves-covid-19-vaccine-focuses-on-next-generation-shot-11634036509 .
WSJ: FDA takes no position on Moderna’s booster recommendation: https://www.wsj.com/articles/fda-staff-dont-take-position-on-moderna-covid-19-booster-11634054284 . Sigh. As the article notes, this is the same thing they did on the Pfizer booster request, which was later granted. That is the key information here. Somebody else will make the decision.
WSJ: J&J’s top scientist departs: https://www.wsj.com/articles/johnson-johnsons-top-scientist-to-depart-11634035500 .
Low-dose aspirin advice changes: https://apnews.com/article/aspirin-use-preventing-heart-attacks-advice-shifting-fec8c7b327f06bbc2a7e68781fcb4e83 . For persons in their 60s or older, daily low-dose aspirin is no longer recommended as protection against a first heart attack or stroke. New evidence shows that the bleeding risk outweighs the potential benefits of aspirin. WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/panel-recommends-older-adults-drop-aspirin-to-prevent-first-heart-attack-11634059227 .
Florida data follies continue: https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article254950192.html . The Miami Herald has done an excellent job staying on top of the ever-changing data landscape in Florida. Florida continues to have one of the worst per capita daily death rates in the US.
Wisconsin school mask fight brewing: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/oct/12/covid-wisconsin-schools-sued-health-safety . You’d think schools would follow public health recommendations, wouldn’t you? The ghost of Orange Julius wanders the halls …
WSJ: We’re more politics than facts: https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-vaccine-mandate-fight-between-texas-and-biden-has-companies-caught-in-the-middle-11634073605 . No, companies are not caught in the middle. Read your own damn article. The large companies all state that they’re following the federal rule. And by the way, they’re federal contractors and involved in interstate commerce. The experts tell you that the employers, as private businesses, have the right to set mandates. And your “countervailing” viewpoint is a small business person who says she’s confused and awaiting more guidance. WSJ is really pathetic when it caters to the right-wing nuts in its audience.
WSJ: Boeing mandates vaccines for employees: https://www.wsj.com/articles/boeing-mandates-covid-19-vaccine-for-u-s-employees-11634075513 . Lost in all this false furor is the FACT that both the federal rules and many company “mandates” allow testing as an alternative. This is not a mandate in the strict sense on which the right bases its “freedom to choose” argument.
OSHA submits vaccine mandate rule to OMB: https://www.cnn.com/2021/10/12/politics/covid-vaccine-rule-large-employers-biden-osha-omb/index.html . WSJ: More or less: https://www.wsj.com/articles/labor-department-nears-release-of-vaccine-mandate-for-workers-at-larger-businesses-11634083333 . The Journal’s chopped salad approach shows here, including a side of misinformation about the situation in Texas.
Jen Psaki turns Fox News barbed question on Ted Cruz: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/psaki-mocks-world-renowned-business-travel-and-health-expert-ted-cruz-for-claiming-that-vaccine-mandates-contributed-to-southwest-airlines-delays/ar-AAPqYOF?li=BBnb7Kz . Psaki is the best press secretary in a long, long time. She calmly returns every plate of crap served up to her.
WSJ: The Southwest saga continues: https://www.wsj.com/articles/southwest-ceo-says-airline-recovering-after-slew-of-weekend-cancelations-11634051618 . And a PS to Flyin’ Ted: If the airline and the union both say it’s not a strike, then it’s not a strike.
Supreme Court embarrassment Alito continues down the wrong path: https://www.mediaite.com/news/atlantics-adam-serwer-fires-back-at-justice-alito-slamming-him-for-inflammatory-piece-on-tx-abortion-law-dishonesty-and-obfuscation/ . Alito’s behavior in attacking the press is unbecoming a justice. The average moron would realize that attacking the press is a losing game for a Justice. Alito is not your average moron.
America’s economic dislocation continues: https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/a-record-number-of-workers-are-quitting-their-jobs-empowered-by-new-leverage/ar-AAPqmmR?li=BBnb7Kz . More: https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/record-4-3-million-workers-walked-job-august-n1281377 . Still more: https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/us-job-openings-slide-for-the-first-time-in-6-months-in-august-and-more-people-quit-than-ever/ar-AAPql4C?li=BBnb7Kz . And: https://news.yahoo.com/now-is-the-best-time-to-ask-for-a-raise-or-switch-jobs-economist-163704694.html . I am old-school on this, and typically had a better offer in hand before asking for a raise with willingness to leave.
40% of American households currently face serious financial issues: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/oct/12/us-households-financial-problems-medical-care-food .
Social Security increase for 2022 will be announced shortly: https://www.usnews.com/news/politics/articles/2021-10-13/explainer-why-social-security-cola-will-jump-next-year . So the predicted figure has been around 6% for some time. Given continued “temporary” inflation, that still seems likely.
WSJ: IMF cuts global growth forecast: https://www.wsj.com/articles/imf-cuts-global-growth-forecast-amid-supply-chain-disruptions-warns-of-inflation-risks-11634043601 . There are rising economic warning signs.
January 6 panel will enforce subpoenas: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/us-jan-6-panel-to-advance-contempt-charges-if-subpoenas-not-followed-cheney/ar-AAPr2sg?li=BBnb7Kz . This is yet another losing game for Bannon.
WSJ: Update on the South Carolina lawyer: https://www.wsj.com/articles/alex-murdaugh-investigations-lawyer-is-accused-of-stealing-millions-from-former-partners-and-clients-11634043600 . So it’s difficult to imagine that the amount of money apparently at stake here could all be associated with Mr. Murdaugh’s drug habit.
WSJ: Chinese flee collapsing building: https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinese-developer-fantasia-loses-two-board-members-11634019079 . And: https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinese-developers-report-sharp-drops-in-monthly-home-sales-11634037472 . Meanwhile: https://www.wsj.com/articles/for-chinas-banks-corruption-is-only-half-the-problem-11634044402 . As this newsletter has emphasized, the threat of major contagion in China is real, and the impact will be global.
A bit more clarity on Evergrande: https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/bonds/china-bond-market-evergrande-third-missed-payment-sinic-modern-land-2021-10 . So we have a third missed payment from Evergrande, and no resolution of the “big deal”. When 30 days pass from the first missed interest payment (September 23), debtors can file to force liquidation. The likely outcome is a messy bankruptcy followed by other property company collapses.
The interest payments involved are 9.5% and 10% bonds. While the article describes them as high yield, that is really a euphemism for junk bonds. Their trading value at 25 cents or less on the dollar indicates the market has given up on seeing anything like full value. Yes, the Chinese government has the ability to step in. However, every indication is that they are intentionally cracking down on excessive debt.
As explained previously, the amounts involved run into the trillions of dollars. US and Asian investors hold much of this debt (these are off-shore bonds). The damage from this will be global, just as our mortgage package mess was at the end of the Bush administration: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Subprime_mortgage_crisis . Indeed, at 25 cents on the dollar, much of this pain is already out there.
It is interesting (scary) that Wall Street is currently outbidding individuals in hotter US real estate markets. Their intent is to create blocks of managed rentals, and they are able to make cash offers with impeccable credit. But given the fragile health of the US economy, this appears to be a risky bet. We have not yet seen the bankruptcy and foreclosure wave expected from the pandemic. So perhaps Wall Street is just positioning itself to swoop in on that wave. But if true, the outlook is not good for the short-term trajectory of US property values. Here is an opposing view: https://news.yahoo.com/home-prices-will-grow-a-further-16-by-end-of-next-year-goldman-forecast-203019920.html .