Is the pandemic ending? No: https://news.yahoo.com/the-last-major-wave-of-infection-do-falling-covid-cases-signal-the-end-of-the-us-pandemic-203343478.html . Indisputably, COVID is nowhere near ending globally. Africa has less than 10% of its population vaccinated. As to the US, we are nowhere near herd immunity. Herd immunity is not a realistic objective for such a highly infectious disease combined with vaccine resistance. Most “experts” have come around to that view, long expressed here.
We have seen repeated waves because we continually reopen too early when we start to see declines. We’re doing that again, together with people spending more time indoors, school openings, stadium events, increasing air travel, and the upcoming holidays. The pandemic will end in the US sometime, providing a more dangerous variant does not emerge. My guess is early 2022.
What does the end of the pandemic look like? It will be replaced by almost continuous spot outbreaks around the country, as people increase travel. What are the bright points? The vaccination of school children is coming. And medical treatment continues to improve. Effective oral antivirals are a particularly hopeful sign for controlling the spot outbreaks. Now could we please get contact tracing and testing? That will be the most effective disease management tool in the post-pandemic environment.
Others see a cycle in the US COVID waves: https://www.kgw.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/coronavirus-infections-waves/283-10247eb2-2665-46e3-8a8b-0730618dff70 . The theories here parallel my comments above.
Safety advice messaging still falls short: https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2021/10/04/1043020857/cdc-tips-for-celebrating-the-holidays-safely-covid . Note the headline: Get a fan. If you read the entire article, you see the advice is to use the fan in one window (with others open) to exhaust aerosols and draw in fresh air. But the cold weather holidays approach, and many people rely on the headlines. This could lead to many people operating the fan without opening any windows (it’s cold!), and that further distributes aerosols.
Rate of school closures slows: https://www.usnews.com/news/education-news/articles/2021-10-04/coronavirus-related-school-closures-plateau . Contrary to the article, this is not the same as “plateauing”.
Corporate vaccine mandates continue to show results: https://www.usnews.com/news/economy/articles/2021-10-05/whos-winning-the-vaccine-mandate-debate-corporate-america .
Rapid COVID tests becoming scarce due to employer demand: https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/rapid-covid-19-tests-increasingly-scarce-pricey-demand-employers-jumps-2021-10-05/ . We’ve seen this movie before. WSJ: However, the FDA has just authorizes another at-home test kit: https://www.wsj.com/articles/fda-authorizes-another-at-home-rapid-test-for-covid-19-11633463317 .
Meanwhile, faulty tests result in recall: https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2021-10-05/the-latest-j-j-seeks-fda-ok-for-vaccine-booster-doses .
Pregnant women should get vaccinated: https://news.yahoo.com/pregnant-women-should-absolutely-get-vaccinated-as-soon-as-possible-doctor-urges-143116278.html . Note the comment that pregnant women are slightly immunocompromised during pregnancy. This appears to be behind the increased risk of more severe COVID for those infected during pregnancy.
More – ugh – on natural immunity: https://news.yahoo.com/where-does-natural-immunity-stand-in-fight-over-vaccine-mandates-231039244.html . Let’s be clear – if you have not had COVID and have no special medical risks related to your immune system, you should get vaccinated. This natural immunity talk runs the risk that some unvaccinated people will argue that if they do get COVID, they will likely be better off because their risk of severe disease is low and natural immunity can be superior to the vaccine. With a highly safe and effective vaccine, and a disease that has killed over 700,000 Americans in less than 2 years, this is a ridiculous risk-reward analysis.
Now, as to natural immunity, the vaccines are still extremely safe. They significantly boost the antibody response in the previously infected. And COVID does reinfect people who have had COVID. So again, the risk-reward analysis pretty much demands vaccination as a boost to natural immunity. Other evidence could emerge, but there is a major risk of waiting during a pandemic. Therefore, short of shocking new evidence, everyone unvaccinated should get vaccinated ASAP regardless of whether they have been previously infected.
Aspirin lowers risk of severe COVID: https://www.jpost.com/health-and-wellness/aspirin-lowers-risk-of-covid-new-findings-support-preliminary-israeli-trial-681127 . Again, treatment progress continues.
WSJ: AstraZeneca requests FDA EUA for its antibody drug: https://www.wsj.com/articles/preventive-covid-19-treatment-submitted-for-fda-authorization-11633428799 .
Merck sells federally-financed Molnupiravir for 40 times what it costs to make: https://theintercept.com/2021/10/05/covid-pill-drug-pricing-merck-ridgeback/ . But that’s the normal mark-up, right? (I’m kidding.)
WSJ: More on J&J FDA booster submission: https://www.wsj.com/articles/johnson-johnson-asks-fda-to-authorize-covid-19-booster-11633442928 .
WSJ: Frances Collins will leave NIH at year-end: https://www.wsj.com/articles/francis-s-collins-to-resign-as-director-of-the-national-institutes-of-health-11633438361 . Collins has done a creditable job as head of NIH, particularly considering all of the boneheads he had to fend off in the prior administration. However, the Journal’s comment about the 40% budget increase is at best faint praise. Over 12 years, that’s less than 3% annually (compounded). And we are in the middle of a global pandemic.
Russia continues to set daily COVID death records: https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/10/05/russia-breaks-daily-coronavirus-deaths-record-a75214 .
The Washington Post analyzes Joe Manchin’s negotiating demands: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/what-joe-manchin-wants-decoded/ar-AAPaKnB?li=BBnb7Kz . This is informative, even if you don’t like the information. There will still be a deal, but Manchin can claim with justification that he has reined in the liberal Democrats. That’s very helpful to him in West Virginia.
WSJ: The Powell renomination remains contentious: https://www.wsj.com/articles/biden-backs-powell-after-sen-elizabeth-warren-intensifies-opposition-11633479452 .
Alienation of GOP voters is increasing: https://thehill.com/business-a-lobbying/business-a-lobbying/575427-gop-voters-breaking-with-corporate-americas-politics . If money dominates politics, this is not a hopeful sign for the GOP.
WSJ: The exploding Catholic Church sex abuse scandal in France: https://www.wsj.com/articles/french-catholic-church-personnel-sexually-abused-330-000-minors-probe-finds-11633423737 . While these charges are not new, the scale of the abuse is staggering.
WSJ: The Evergrande saga: https://www.wsj.com/articles/evergrande-china-crisis-11632330764 . It’s now Wednesday afternoon in China. There is still no word on the “major deal” announced Monday together with a halt in trading Evergrande stock. The delay involved here increases worry about a collapse.
Nobel Prize in Physics honors advances in understanding climate change: https://www.npr.org/2021/10/05/1043278925/nobel-prize-physics-climate-change-winner . WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/nobel-prize-in-physics-awarded-to-trio-for-study-of-complex-systems-including-climate-change-11633428420 . As important as this is, governmental action remains woefully inadequate. I still believe intense focus on one goal – significant reduction of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere – is the best path forward.