US COVID death toll keeps climbing: https://www.nydailynews.com/coronavirus/ny-covid-death-toll-surpassing-spanish-flu-1918-pandemic-coronavirus-20210920-y6rnbg2e6bbuzkin7ijg7mhin4-story.html . Any way you look at it, there will be more deaths from the pandemic than any other event in US history. We are likely to pass 750,000 deaths by year-end, and not likely to end the pandemic by then. Given 100 years of medical advances and the quick development of vaccines, this is an absolutely pathetic comment on American society. And yes, we can estimate the death toll if the pandemic had been managed according to public health principles.
For example, Canada, with a population of 38 million, has had 27,395 COVID deaths as of today. Scaling that up to 330 million gives 237,903 deaths, just over 1/3 of the current US total of 691,992 (Worldometers). But Canada was well behind us in vaccinations because we vaccinated ourselves first. They also had the problem of the world’s worst performing large country on their southern border.
And no country in the world has followed (well-known) public health principles by using a multi-pronged approach to pandemic management. In my view, US deaths could have been held well below 150,000 with proper (aggressive) management of this obvious threat. And yes, these lessons were known from the 1918 pandemic. We have previously discussed the studies of the St. Louis Fed, which began with this study in 2008: https://files.stlouisfed.org/files/htdocs/publications/review/08/03/Garrett.pdf . The ongoing threat in this country reflects a fundamentally uneducated population misled by anti-science, bizarre, dishonest conservative politics.
There can hardly be more direct evidence that the US response throughout 2020 was utterly incompetent, thanks to the failure to pursue a national strategy. That blame lies at the feet of Orange Julius, by any definition the leading mass murderer in US history. “Inject bleach!” will be the eternal legacy of voting in a narcissistic liar into the most powerful position in the world. No hoax.
HIV presents a new COVID problem – immunocompromised populations in Africa: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2021-09-20/hiv-is-africa-s-latest-covid-19-problem . We know that when COVID infects an immunocompromised person, the infection can last for months. This significantly increases the chance of viral mutation. Scientists believe that the large HIV-infected population in South Africa may have led to the emergence of two significant variants there.
3 reasons why FDA panel rejected Pfizer’s booster for the under-65 population: https://news.yahoo.com/3-reasons-why-fda-rejected-booster-shots-195236606.html . Let’s assume that the source, Ms. FitzGerald, has actual insight into the FDA panel’s reasoning. That’s unclear as she is an adjunct associate professor at Columbia, not an obvious panel spokesperson. However, even with this assumption, these reasons are pathetic. The FDA’s job is to approve worthy drugs. These reasons do not fit that job description.
In particular, the FDA (let alone this panel) does not have the right or ability to get the unvaccinated vaccinated, and certainly not globally. Additionally, we have adequate vaccine production to take care of the US population without significantly delaying vaccination rate increases globally. This alleged reason is nonsensical.
Second, I would dispute the suggestion that Pfizer’s evidence was not adequate. Admittedly, their evidence is from Israel, but it does show a drop in protection over time. There is no known reason that such data would not apply here.
Lastly, the comment that the two-shot protocol meets public health standards ignores the data from Israel. If protection declines over time, at some point those standards will not be met. And hospitalization is not the only issue. We want to halt transmission, and that is a very important aspect of the booster that the hospitalization argument misses.
This “analysis” completely skips an important point. If protection for the vaccinated does decline over time, and they contract COVID more frequently, the unvaccinated will become more skeptical. In other words, the thing encouraging the unvaccinated to get vaccinated is that the pandemic is currently focused on the unvaccinated. If that dynamic goes away, the skeptics will claim the government is lying about the vaccine’s protection.
I have been very critical of the FDA decision. If these are just Ms. FitzGerald’s reasons, then don’t quote her anymore and find out what the FDA panel really thinks. If these really are the panel’s reasons, my criticism increases to: Get people on the panel who understand the problem. The analytic process described is ridiculous.
Pfizer says vaccine works in trials for children ages 5 to 11: https://apnews.com/article/business-science-health-coronavirus-pandemic-coronavirus-vaccine-202cb6e44b90270ec4d1f19690ed94c5 . Not surprising but still terrific. Let’s get the EUA in place ASAP. Predictions continue that approval could come by Halloween: https://www.cnn.com/2021/09/21/health/us-coronavirus-tuesday/index.html . It’s a pandemic, dammit! I really see no reason that the process cannot be completed by or before October 15. Snap to it!
Biden to ease US restrictions on foreign travelers in November: https://apnews.com/article/biden-easing-foreign-travel-restrictions-requiring-vaccines-5d78d14dab51389b02fd70228a5b55b9 . Travelers must show proof of vaccination and a negative COVID test.
A loss of patience with people who won’t follow mask rules on a flight: https://www.koin.com/news/hey-hey-hey-goodbye-passengers-sing-as-two-kicked-off-florida-flight-for-not-wearing-masks/ . Note that this occurred after the flight, from Florida to Texas, had already suffered through a 9 hour delay. It is hard to see the point of this behavior. Hope they enjoy their fines.
Texas hospitality visits New York: https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2021/09/17/1038392877/new-york-tourists-attack-hostess-restaurant-vaccine . Swell. Lock them up, throw away the key.
Another tragedy among the unvaccinated: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-10009793/Mother-four-unmasked-unmuzzled-unvaccainated-dies-COVID-19-age-40.html . First, in fairness, let’s note that she spelled “unvaccinated” correctly in her border. The Daily Mail somehow got it wrong. Second, if she “ALWAYS put her children first”, how did she conclude it was a good idea to risk orphaning them? Third, why did she campaign to “give a voice to the vaccine injured” when she herself did not accept the vaccine? Did another vaccine injure her? Or was she just looking for anything to say in opposition to the COVID vaccine? Last, none of this matters relative to the pain her children will now endure. Maybe some unvaccinated person will reflect on this woman’s life (and death) and choose vaccination.
WSJ: AstraZeneca breast cancer drug has impressive trial results: https://www.wsj.com/articles/astrazeneca-breast-cancer-drug-found-to-reduce-risk-of-dying-11632146777 .
Negotiations continue on the reconciliation package: https://thehill.com/homenews/house/573128-pelosi-says-she-promised-members-they-would-not-vote-for-spending-bill-above . The headline idea is important, because there are many moving parts in getting the infrastructure and reconciliation bills passed. But two details in the article also caught my attention.
First, as we know, the reconciliation package can only be about financial matters, according to the Byrd rule. But Nancy says the legislation is being reviewed “to narrow our exposure in a Byrd bath”. Ahem. It’s an interesting visual image. I’d never heard the term “Byrd bath” before, but it relates to going through a multi-step review process under the Byrd rule. And apparently the phrase has been around for a while: https://www.cnn.com/2017/07/12/politics/byrd-bath-gop-health-care-bill/index.html .
Second, as we know, Senator Manchin has proposed a pause in consideration of these bills to allow Democrats to get their ducks in a row. But today Axios reported that Manchin wants to pause until 2022: https://www.axios.com/scoop-manchin-delay-biden-plan-to-22-8116a0e8-ed10-4662-8ebb-6922f073a8e8.html . That would be insanity. In 2022, an election year, next to nothing will pass in Congress. This also assumes that the Democrats’ 50 Senate votes hold until then. The ACA nearly failed when Ted Kennedy passed away. The Democrats have several senators over 80. This is literally gambling Biden’s presidency on a very risky proposition.
Supreme Court sets Mississippi abortion law for argument in December: https://www.wsj.com/articles/in-mississippi-abortion-case-supreme-court-sets-arguments-for-december-11632176939 . After the Court’s screwball decision on the Texas abortion law, this is the major case to watch in the Court’s next term. Meanwhile, the Texas law faces a test on its substance: https://www.wsj.com/articles/texas-doctor-who-performed-abortion-is-sued-in-test-of-new-law-11632176035 . The Texas law will be declared unconstitutional on its merits, or lack thereof.
India will resume COVID vaccine exports next month: https://apnews.com/article/ap-news-alert-business-health-india-coronavirus-pandemic-1b3fa96e1decad51ea41a47ecdcca5f3 . Remember, India has been the world’s vaccine factory. WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/india-to-resume-covid-19-vaccine-exports-to-developing-nations-11632155352 .
WSJ: Bulgaria suffers from low vaccination rates: https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-vaccine-rollout-falters-in-bulgaria-amid-perfect-storm-of-mistrust-fake-news-11632133548 .
Canada’s snap election is a draw: https://apnews.com/article/canada-health-elections-toronto-coronavirus-pandemic-ddfc4d35fb45559f096bc76f7106949b . Trudeau’s party wins exactly the same number of seats they already held, so they remain as a minority government.
NY Times: Russian election results show declining support for Putin’s party: https://cbnc.com/russian-election-shows-declining-support-for-putins-party/ (link replaced 10/29/21). Wait, what? You’re analyzing Russian election results as if they’re real numbers? How are things going with the Arizona election audit? (“Results” expected this week.)