News for August 12 — COVID Herd Immunity Won’t Happen

COVID herd immunity won’t happen: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/12/herd-immunity-is-mythical-with-the-covid-delta-variant-experts-say.html . Sigh. The conclusion is correct, but the supporting arguments are flawed. Herd immunity for Delta requires 92% to 95% of the population to be effectively vaccinated. Since current vaccines are estimated to be less than 80% effective against Delta, even if everyone was vaccinated, there would be over 20% of the population still vulnerable. Again, vaccine efficacy is complicated. The vaccinations are very effective at preventing severe disease or death.

WSJ: Rising medical frustration with vaccine hesitancy: https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-rise-vaccine-hesitancy-frustrate-doctors-in-hospitals-saturated-by-the-delta-variant-11628760602 .

FDA authorizes third dose for immunocompromised: https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/567707-fda-authorizes-third-vaccine-dose-for-immunocompromised-people .

WSJ: The booster shot debate continues: https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-third-shot-booster-11623421703 .

More support for the Moderna vaccine: https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/12/health/moderna-vaccine-protection/index.html .

WSJ: COVID breakthrough infections: https://www.wsj.com/articles/breakthrough-cases-covid-19-delta-variant-11627596643 .

WSJ: VA will not cover Biogen’s Alzheimer’s drug: https://www.wsj.com/articles/biogens-alzheimers-drug-wont-be-covered-by-va-health-system-11628803740 . I cannot recall another example of this level of pushback against an FDA approval. This continues to look like false hope at a very expensive price.

More data hiding from Florida Under Ron DeMentis: https://www.miamiherald.com/opinion/editorials/article252979653.html . There’s a 52-year-old reference hidden in that comment. “Under” is capitalized for a reason. I had the good fortune to see Janis Joplin perform live at the West Palm Beach Music Festival in 1969. On the way to the venue, her entourage (and all of us) passed a highway billboard for the then-governor. Janis had several choice comments about the message: “Florida Under Claude Kirk”. From George Santayana: Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.

Governor DeMentis tries to revive his flagging reputation with fake news: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9888243/DeSantis-denies-asking-Biden-300-ventilators-amid-COVID-surge-war-White-House.html . November 2022 is an eternity away, politically speaking. However, DeMentis looks like a poor bet to be re-elected governor. If the state is running out of ventilators, isn’t the governor supposed to try to get more? Whatever goes on in Ron’s pea brain, governance never comes up.

Another brain fart from DeMentis: https://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/state-politics/article253442554.html . This feels like a guy punching himself in the face.

And another: https://www.news4jax.com/news/local/2021/08/12/gov-desantis-suggests-florida-could-return-to-daily-covid-19-reporting/ . Of course it’s a good idea. That’s why the state used to report on a daily basis until the numbers got bad and you shut the reporting down. Do you think no one is paying attention.

Doctors against DeMentis: https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/815-florida-doctors-are-pushing-gov-ron-desantis-to-lift-his-order-forbidding-mask-mandates-at-schools/ar-AANffZc?li=BBnb7Kz . These docs aren’t voting for you, Ron. More resistance: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/desantis-confronts-growing-resistance-over-covid-19-handling/ar-AANenZ6?li=BBnb7Kz . Other polls have shown Crist beating DeMentis. The trend in Ron’s numbers is not good.

Pushback grows against Greg Abbott: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/08/texas-politics-are-dangerously-broken/619725/ . Greg is Ron’s leading competition in the Idiot Olympics. And America won’t elect either one President. WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/more-school-districts-in-texas-sue-governor-over-mask-mandate-ban-11628805472 .

Meanwhile, Kevin McCarthy again makes Nancy Pelosi’s point: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/house-gop-leader-kevin-mccarthy-is-selling-moron-t-shirts-to-fundraise-off-anti-mask-sentiment/ar-AANfPXx?li=BBnb7Kz . So, Kevin, this is the best defense you have of your record? What genius is going to pay you to put the “moron” label on his own chest?

WSJ: Israel’s COVID surge continues: https://www.wsj.com/articles/israel-80-vaccinated-suffers-another-covid-19-surge-11628769603 .

WSJ: Sacklers seek to skate away from opioid liabilities: https://www.wsj.com/articles/oxycontin-maker-purdues-chapter-11-trial-to-test-limits-of-bankruptcy-powers-11628766000 . Only the ultra-rich can avoid liability for wrongdoing of this magnitude. Actually, only the ultra-rich can create liability of this magnitude. More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/purdue-pharma-director-says-sacklers-required-full-release-in-bankruptcy-deal-11628807427 .

So what is the importance of a free, international press?: https://apnews.com/article/europe-business-media-382f8b3fb3645c6a33090e923ff7606d . “Wolne Media” is Polish for “Free Media”.

WSJ: Weekly jobless claims have small decrease to 375,000: https://www.wsj.com/articles/weekly-jobless-claims-08-12-2021-11628733540 . But the Journal brushes over the central point, which is that these numbers remain historically awful.

Census shows US diversifying, white population shrinking: https://apnews.com/article/census-2020-house-elections-4ee80e72846c151aa41a808b06d975ea . WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/census-race-population-redistricting-changes-11628714807 . The white population has been shrinking for some time due to the lower birth rates that come with increasing prosperity and education. The US does not attract many white immigrants. And (horror!) some whites marry non-whites. As a result, these trends appear irreversible.

The GOP has been attempting to maintain their power through gerrymandering and voter discouragement. However, this is a short-term strategy at best. It appears to be failing in Georgia and Arizona, both of which now have two Democratic senators. The balance seems to have tipped by educated white migration into Atlanta and Phoenix. Arizona, by the way, has an independent redistricting commission, so gerrymandering is not a tool there.

As Florida and Texas become increasingly purple, the GOP is in mortal danger of becoming a regional, rural, less-educated, older, whites-only party. But the GOP’s behavior indicates they have no better plan. If the Party of Lincoln reduces to Grumpy Old People, then good riddance.

Possible bipartisan agreement on student loan debt: https://news.yahoo.com/student-loans-bankruptcy-reform-bill-debt-discharge-104831125.html . While “introduced” is a long way from “passed”, there are elements here that appeal to both sides. Mr. Iuliano may be an expert, but his logic is fatally flawed. The 60% success rate (which is very low anyway) ignores the fact that very few people try because discharge is so difficult.

Reality check for Sidney Powell, the Rude Dude and the My Pillow Guy: https://apnews.com/article/business-election-2020-fdb8faaacdbc06b241e55ebb37fbff61 . So, the judge is stating settled law. But the problem for the defendants is that we’ve all seen the evidence. So it’s a short jump from the judge finding that the allegations are credible to the jury finding that the allegations are true. The largest open questions are: (1) could an OJ tribe member on the jury derail the findings of fact; and (2) what are appropriate damages?

Background on Dr. Scott Gottlieb’s appearances on Face the Nation: https://variety.com/2021/tv/news/scott-gottlieb-coronavirus-expert-face-the-nation-cbs-news-tv-1235038345/ .

WSJ: Sex-toy makers hook up: https://www.wsj.com/articles/sex-toy-makers-lovehoney-wow-tech-merge-in-1-2-billion-deal-as-lockdowns-spur-demand-11628722800 . The Journal explores the frontiers of “sexual wellness”.