Breakthrough COVID cases: https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/breakthrough-covid-cases-least-125-000-fully-vaccinated-americans-have-n1275500 . This is concerning data, although the article does an incomplete job of analyzing it. The deaths (1,400) divided by the cases (125,682) suggests a mortality rate of 1.1%. This is about double my estimate of COVID’s mortality rate of 0.6%. Logically, either: (1) the vaccines are not very effective; (2) the deaths are overstated; (3) Delta is much more deadly than the original strain; or (4) the cases are significantly understated.
I would dismiss (1) out of hand. The article raises the possibility of (2), saying that some excess deaths may be misattributed. Assuming death and case data are available by state, death attribution could be tested by looking at the by-state mortality rates. This would identify whether certain states (or NBC) has over-attributed excess deaths. Offhand, I would doubt the level of misattribution fully explains the 1.1% mortality estimate.
Delta could be more deadly than the original strain. However, another possibility is the age-weighting of the deaths. The article suggests there may be a concentration of deaths in the elderly, which is certainly true of COVID in general. Again, a review of the data could shed light on this issue.
The most viable explanation is that cases are significantly understated. We believe vaccinated individuals in general experience more asymptomatic or mild cases than the unvaccinated. However, the case number needs to be a significant multiple of the reported 125,682 cases for this to fully explain the data. If this is true, transmission by the vaccinated may be significantly greater than we currently estimate.
In summary, this data could teach us something important. The only way we would know is for experts to be involved in the analysis.
Provincetown breakthrough COVID outbreak details: https://news.yahoo.com/eight-hundred-cases-seven-hospitalizations-and-no-deaths-the-provincetown-outbreak-shows-vaccines-work-125324207.html . This data very much reinforces the efficacy of vaccines in preventing hospitalization and death. The outbreaks which do occur should then be managed by the other public health tools available. That is, masks and social distancing; contact tracing, testing and isolation; and lockdowns and travel restrictions can all come into play, in that order. And that’s why the mask recommendation has changed. It’s also why we’re starting to see mandatory vaccination policies.
Florida again breaks daily COVID case record: https://apnews.com/article/lifestyle-health-business-arts-and-entertainment-florida-01fa89e1d9491ab075c5deb689af1ea8 . You can’t argue with results. DeMentis’ results suck. Local mayors are pushing back: https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/31/health/us-coronavirus-saturday/index.html .
Meanwhile, West Virginia’s governor resorts to potty talk about COVID: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/west-virginias-governor-was-so-disturbed-by-information-on-the-delta-variant-that-he-said-he-wanted-to-pee-and-throw-up/ar-AAMMLtV?li=BBnb7Kz .
Two major San Francisco hospitals report 233 staff test positive for COVID: https://ca.news.yahoo.com/2-major-san-francisco-hospitals-033520710.html . Hospitals are perhaps the single most logical employer to adopt vaccination mandates for employees.
Demand for vaccinations increases in states hard hit by COVID: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/30/us-covid-vaccine-rates-delta-variant.html . WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/delta-variant-fears-spur-some-americans-to-get-covid-19-vaccine-11627723802 .
FDA prioritizes full approval for Pfizer vaccine: https://news.yahoo.com/fda-vows-hands-deck-effort-002333247.html . It’s past time for this, but never too late. This will also increase the possibility that schools will mandate vaccination for students.
Experts expect this COVID surge to get much worse: https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/31/health/us-coronavirus-saturday/index.html .
Pandemic is killing rural hospitals: https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/31/health/rural-hospital-closures-pandemic/index.html .
Germans may make unvaccinated pay for COVID tests: https://www.dw.com/en/germany-could-make-unvaccinated-pay-for-covid-tests-report/a-58713602.
Analysis of India’s excess deaths: https://www.thehindu.com/data/data-indias-excess-deaths-could-be-highest-among-nations-with-most-recorded-covid-19-fatalities/article35636438.ece . It is very helpful to have this level of analysis from in-country personnel.
French freak out over vaccine passports for restaurant access: https://www.wsj.com/articles/vaccine-health-pass-fuels-french-protests-11627748518 .
Ron Johnson’s a no on learning from experience: https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/sen-ron-johnson-says-hed-support-a-vaccine-mandate-for-an-incredibly-deadly-virus-but-not-covid-19-which-has-killed-more-than-613000-americans/ar-AAMNike?li=BBnb7Kz . Ron, COVID is not seasonal and the US deaths are way beyond a bad flu season. And Ron, you’re an idiot.
WSJ: Mental health hazards of the Olympics: https://www.wsj.com/articles/olympics-osaka-biles-ledecky-11627710850 . More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/can-aiming-for-gold-be-a-mental-health-hazard-11627716750 .