News for June 19 — CDC Explores Delta Variant Booster Shot

CDC explores Delta booster shot: https://www.wxyz.com/news/national/coronavirus/health-officials-explore-covid-19-booster-vaccine-shots-as-delta-variant-spreads .

Delta variant nears 25% of cases in the Midwest region (Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska): https://abcnews.go.com/US/delta-variant-infecting-mounting-number-people-rural-kansas/story?id=78375257 . Delta (10% of cases nationally) will account for a majority of new cases within several weeks.

UK faces third COVID wave from Delta variant: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/19/third-wave-of-covid-definitely-under-way-in-uk-says-expert . Remember, the UK has vaccinated a significant portion of its population, although predominately with the AstraZeneca vaccine.

Summary of current knowledge on the Delta variant: https://www.dw.com/en/fact-check-what-do-we-know-about-the-coronavirus-delta-variant/a-57949754 .

Digging deeper on Delta – that’s what this writer should have done: https://www.nj.com/coronavirus/2021/06/delta-covid-variant-does-johnson-johnson-vaccine-work-against-the-new-coronavirus-strain.html . This article has most of the facts right, but flops at the analysis stage. A 60% effectiveness for J&J is barely over the 50% lower limit for an effective vaccine. The 88% effectiveness for the mRNA vaccines means your risk of still contracting COVID with the mRNA vaccines is about 30% of your risk with J&J (12%/88%). I’d have a definite preference for the mRNA vaccines. If I already had received J&J, I’d talk to my doctor about receiving an mRNA vaccine as a booster shot.

Remember, vaccine efficacy is complicated. A person who has received the J&J vaccine has a much better than 60% chance of avoiding hospitalization. But long COVID is a serious risk, so that’s why I suggest talking to the doctor about an mRNA booster shot. There can be risks if the booster is given too close in time to the original J&J vaccination.

The Gamma variant (Brazil) is also a growing problem in the US: https://www.cnn.com/2021/06/18/health/gamma-variant-spread/index.html .

mRNA as a cancer vaccine: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2021/06/19/covid-19-vaccine-mrna-tech-cure-cancer-tumors/7711271002/ . Moderna focused on cancer before the pandemic. This article provides good detail on the current state of that technology.

Scientists find a human molecule, RIG-I, which detects RNA viruses is critical to coronavirus suppression: https://scitechdaily.com/scientists-discover-a-novel-defense-mechanism-against-the-covid-19-coronavirus/ .

WSJ: Nevada joins Western states moving on a public option in healthcare: https://www.wsj.com/articles/future-of-u-s-healthcare-is-playing-out-in-nevada-11624095000 .

Brazil COVID death toll tops 500,000 as global pandemic continues to rage: https://www.scmp.com/news/world/africa/article/3138034/coronavirus-brazils-death-toll-tops-500000-russia-reports-surge .

First Olympian tests positive for COVID and cannot enter Japan: https://apnews.com/article/uganda-olympic-team-2020-tokyo-olympics-olympic-games-business-health-e28e7d61a117b30a570eb281a3cc85eb .

WSJ: The changing situation in Thailand: https://www.wsj.com/articles/thailand-once-shut-out-covid-19-but-is-now-pivoting-to-living-with-it-11624107310 . With Thailand’s proximity to India and low vaccination rates, the re-opening plan seems unlikely to succeed.

WSJ: Why chip manufacturing concentration is a weakness: https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-world-relies-on-one-chip-maker-in-taiwan-leaving-everyone-vulnerable-11624075400 . We have reported before on TSMC and its technical advances over Intel.

GOP continues to devolve into corruption, bigotry and detachment from reality. GOP state party chair stole $278,000 from Paul Manafort’s PAC: https://www.salon.com/2021/06/19/when-a-grifter-gets-swindled-former-gop-chairman-accused-of-stealing-from-paul-manaforts-pac/ . Ron Johnson booed in Wisconsin: https://www.mediaite.com/politics/gop-senator-who-blocked-juneteenth-bill-last-year-shows-up-at-milwaukee-celebration-and-it-did-not-go-well/ . Really, how can someone be this stupid?

Chicken Littles line up against America: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/biden-struggles-to-sell-democracy-abroad-when-it-faces-challenges-at-home/ar-AALdy15?li=BBnb7Kz . So, after 4 years of a nincompoop in the presidency surrounded by abject incompetents, US institutions (as well as behavioral norms) suffered significant degradation. But the sky is not falling. Biden has done remarkable restoration work for the 5 months he has been in office. Politicians on both sides amped up their whining under Orange Julius. They need to either start working on problems or leave office.

And despite all the whining, I predict there will be significant additional legislation this year. Democrats realize they were too timid in the first two years of the Obama administration (even though they got the ACA done). Biden will not let them forget. And do not give up on Joe Manchin – he is a Democrat, after all.

Note: This is the sparsest news day since the commencement of the newsletter. Saturday is typically a thin reporting day (no Sunday Wall Street Journal, for example). The Juneteenth holiday weekend, signed Thursday to commence Friday (yesterday), caused further disruption.