Understanding the true COVID death toll: https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/article/will-we-ever-know-the-real-death-toll-of-the-pandemic . This is a critical issue not only for the actuarial community but for the medical community and the world. When data is suppressed or not collected properly, obviously the truth suffers. And our ability to deal with reality is reduced. This National Geographic article chronicles the problems in India.
In one city, reporters found that the government’s official report on their city COVID deaths that were 1/8 of the deaths that they counted at one hospital. This of course says nothing about the deaths occurring outside hospitals. The reporters’ broader study over several weeks indicated the actual deaths were more than 10 times the reported COVID deaths for their city.
As we know, reported COVID deaths for 2021 already exceed those reported for all of 2020. It appears fair to say that COVID is currently the leading cause of death in many areas around the world.
I continue to believe that the best path to accurate data is analysis of excess deaths. This of course assumes that officials around the world do not manipulate the reporting of deaths. To my knowledge, the best global estimates of the true death total currently come from the University of Washington’s IHME: https://covid19.healthdata.org/global?view=cumulative-deaths&tab=trend . As of today, their model estimates 8,192,918 globally, increasing at about 17,500 daily. Their model provides deaths by country, and for some countries, death by state (click on the “Global” button at the top of the chart in the link).
COVID post-mortem lung study: the lungs try and fail to repair themselves: https://scitechdaily.com/new-cell-atlas-of-covid-19-pathology-reveals-how-the-coronavirus-wreaks-havoc-in-the-lungs/ . This is a sad catalogue of the stages of attempts the lungs make to repair themselves. Still, this is much more detail than we have had previously.
Coronavirus can create supercells in the body to evade the immune system: https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-variants-can-evade-antibodies-by-spreading-via-super-cells-new-research-162197 . Once again, this virus continues to show novel features.
WSJ: US positive COVID test rate falls to 2%: https://www.wsj.com/articles/positive-covid-19-tests-fall-to-lowest-recorded-rate-11623585601 .
Germany demands J&J deliver 6.5 million doses next month: https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-germany-demands-johnson-johnson-replace-spoiled-covid-vaccine-doses/a-57873597 . The problems for J&J continue to mount. Emergent Solutions’ liability insurer must be scrambling.
WSJ: The coronavirus variant naming debate rages on: https://www.wsj.com/articles/quail-beta-scientists-bicker-over-what-to-call-coronavirus-variants-11623603963 . Good grief. “Robin” fans object? Because … we’re hurting the bird’s feelings? For the next pandemic, I propose using Klingon words.
Judge tosses hospital workers’ suit against mandatory vaccination: https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-business-health-ef3a5d8c3bac429c3b47d8cf5d3866d7 . WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-judge-in-texas-says-hospital-system-can-require-employees-to-get-covid-19-vaccine-11623613922 . While I haven’t read the opinion, I completely agree with the judge’s comments cited in the article. The hospital’s mission is potentially compromised by infected workers. This is particularly true with a virus that can be asymptomatic in 40% of the cases, but potentially fatal in the other 60%. This is also true for the workers offered medical or religious exemptions.
One other point keeps coming up in the legal reporting in this newsletter. Rule #1 is, “Do not piss off the judge”. If the attorney argued that mandatory vaccination was like Nazi experimentation on prisoners, not only is the argument reprehensible, it violates Rule #1. We have talked about this rule for defendants. But it applies with even greater force to advocates. By the way, the attorney says many of his clients contracted COVID from working in the hospital. He just does not get why that completely validates the hospital’s position.
Man gets 10 years in prison for assaulting man who asked him to wear his mask properly: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/crime/man-who-pulled-down-mask-and-spat-on-another-gets-10-years/ar-AAL0EXo?li=BBnb7Kz . And I learned a new word today: the assailant is a mask-hole. Hey, it’s the New York Daily News, okay?
WSJ: Cruise line struggle with vaccine passport ban: https://www.wsj.com/articles/cruise-lines-wrestle-with-florida-ban-on-vaccine-passports-11623587416 . The bottom line is, who wants to test the waters by going out on a floating Petri dish at this time? In my view, people who are poor decision makers. So, thanks but no thanks.
WSJ: India plans for COVID surges by upgrading hospital facilities: https://www.wsj.com/articles/india-prepares-for-more-covid-19-surges-with-oxygen-plants-and-hospital-beds-11623582002 .
G7’s 1 billion vaccine dose pledge only a start, says IMF chief: https://www.politico.com/news/2021/06/13/kristalina-georgieva-imf-covid-vaccine-493969 . Georgieva is a Harvard-educated Bulgarian.
Biden advances his agenda through the G7: https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/558182-g-7-agrees-to-fight-forced-labor-ransomware-corruption . The major action taken by the G7 was the promise of a billion vaccine doses for the developing world over the next 18 months. However, the joint statements on a variety of topics of current international focus moves forward the enunciation of appropriate norms of behavior. The new Atlantic Charter was an important signal that the US values and will grow its traditional alliances.)
Cyberhacking discussions to go forward with Russia: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-us-and-other-countries-reach-new-agreement-against-cyber-hacking-even-as-attacks-continue/ar-AAKYzhK?li=BBnb7Kz . This problem will continue to rapidly evolve. We are not looking at the rule of law here. So, the question is whether international norms will lead to behavioral modifications by the bad actors. This requires enforcement by their countries of residence, whether privateers or the government itself is involved. The partial recovery of the recent Colonial Pipeline ransom is a shot across the bow by the US government.
Bye-bye, Bibi, bye-bye: https://apnews.com/article/israel-knesset-benjamin-netanyahu-naftalia-bennett-deea22832a1cb2d95736f342958083fd . Netanyahu had been prime minister for 12 years. With a one-vote majority and the new prime minister limited to 2 years, this coalition is unlikely to survive past the 2 year mark. However, it does break the gridlock causing 4 elections in the past 2 years. It also allows others to distance themselves from Netanyahu, including Biden. WSJ: A primer on the new prime minister: https://www.wsj.com/articles/israel-netanyahu-bennett-lapid-11622624494 .
Brazil opens soccer tournament amid pandemic: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/6/13/copa-america-opens-in-brazil-against-backdrop-of-covid-crisis . This article reads like a catalogue of crises the South American countries are facing.
WSJ: Even companies with US supply chains are facing production problems: https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-that-sofa-you-ordered-isnt-showing-up-soon-11623576602 . Much of the US price inflation appears temporary. However, companies with squeezed margins may well look for price increases down the road.
WSJ: Europe extends pandemic help for companies: https://www.wsj.com/articles/europe-keeps-aiding-companies-to-avoid-surge-of-covid-19-insolvencies-11623576603 . This adds to the urgency of getting everyone vaccinated.
WSJ: Japan bets on hydrogen to power the future: https://www.wsj.com/articles/japans-big-bet-on-hydrogen-could-revolutionize-the-energy-market-11623607695 . But technological breakthroughs will be required to make this energy source affordable. The simpler answer would have been nuclear, but as the article notes this would be opposed by the Japanese public.