Economic dislocation is real: https://www.thebalance.com/labor-force-participation-rate-formula-and-examples-3305805 . This article provides a detailed analysis of US labor force participation over time. Recent newsletters have highlighted my view that we are witnessing a significant economic transition that the pandemic has accelerated. This article reinforces the ideas that the baby boomer retirements and automation are the majority of this transition. Additionally, these trends are essentially irreversible.
The article details three additional contributors in the declining labor participation rate: a drop in men’s participation in the workforce, especially those without a college education; opioid dependency; and declining health. Briefly, these argue for commitments to increased education (both for youth and for job retraining), drug rehabilitation (and reduction of opioid prescriptions); and universal health care. This isn’t just good economics, it is increased humanity toward our citizens.
These last 3 contributors are also a breeding ground for dissatisfaction, and have some positive correlation with attitudes we see in the Republican base. Note that the Atlanta Fed report highlights Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana as states with particularly low labor force participation.
With declining birthrates, the baby boomer bulge is a one-time phenomenon that will not be repeated. Thus, the country is increasingly dependent on immigration to maintain and grow the economy.
How the pandemic will end: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/how-does-covid-19-end-in-the-us-likely-with-a-death-rate-americans-are-willing-to-accept/ar-AAKKOt8?li=BBnb7Kz . Duh. To repeat, the only virus ever eliminated from the human population is smallpox. Smallpox has no animal reservoir. There is no evidence the virus will become less deadly or seasonal. We will continue to experience outbreaks until we make the proper investment in contact tracing.
Alameda County COVID death toll revised downward by 25%: https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/local/alameda-county-changes-covid-19-death-reporting/2563332/ . The race comment shows how data problems can multiply. Let’s assume it’s correct that deaths by race are not affected for the county. Alameda County has 1.7 million people and is 10% black. California is 5.8% black. So this would affect the state’s percentages (modestly) even though it doesn’t affect the county.
More data discrepancies: https://www.khq.com/coronavirus/white-house-says-washington-state-is-70-vaccinated-state-data-disagrees/article_9e26275a-c70a-11eb-9754-07b05b8dff11.html . Where would the feds be getting data except from the states? You’d have to think the White House screwed up.
Western hemisphere has 1/8 of world population but ½ of COVID deaths: https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2021/06/06/world-cornavirus-western-hemisphere-50-fatalities/7091622989002/ . I’m tired of winning, how about you?
WSJ: Small businesses in poor countries hammered by pandemic: https://www.wsj.com/articles/entrepreneur-returns-to-hardscrabble-life-as-covid-19-wipes-out-his-business-11622977202 .
UK tourists scramble to leave Portugal: https://www.business-standard.com/article/international/ahead-of-curbs-airfares-hit-1-000-as-uk-tourists-rush-to-leave-portugal-121060400771_1.html .
Johnson wants G7 to commit to vaccinating the world in 18 months: https://apnews.com/article/europe-coronavirus-pandemic-health-6ce4672b988dcdb4664d2363130af748 .
WSJ: The US plan for global vaccination: https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-feds-inflation-view-is-all-about-that-base-11622988002 .
WSJ: The news from Peru: https://www.wsj.com/articles/perus-presidential-election-turns-into-referendum-on-free-market-model-11622894401 .
India to ease lockdown: https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/covid-19-india-to-ease-lockdown-rules-case-numbers-decline-14959156 . Again, India has vaccinated only a small portion of its population. So this is asking for trouble.
WSJ: Africa’s fake vaccine problem: https://www.wsj.com/articles/fake-covid-19-vaccines-pose-new-threat-in-africa-11622971955 .
WSJ: When the trend is not your friend: https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-feds-inflation-view-is-all-about-that-base-11622988002 . It’s quite correct that year-over-year numbers are currently misleading. However, the assumption that we are just returning to the previous trend is not appropriate, in my view. There is an economic dislocation going on, and it is going to take some time to get a handle on it.
WSJ: Implementing the G7 global minimum tax deal: https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-g-7-deal-on-a-global-minimum-tax-for-companies-faces-hurdles-11623016756 . Yes, of course any deal of this magnitude faces implementation issues on a global scale. The comments about the big US tech companies are of interest, but they leave out Amazon. Amazon may be the most interesting case.
Manchin pushing for a new center: https://electionlawblog.org/?p=122484 (link replaced 10/27/21). All of this maneuvering suggests letting Manchin try and fail with Lisa Murkowski, and then eliminating the filibuster on voting rights legislation. That would allow passage of the John Lewis bill which Manchin now champions. This gives Manchin leverage with Republicans in the Senate to join Murkowski before he is “forced” to abandon them.
Republicans refuse to face their problems: https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-election-2020-campaign-2016-senate-elections-government-and-politics-861ce4d1c92c8026c5312a9ea922cf22 . Again, resounding defeat of the GOP is the only path to get them to move on from Orange Julius. What happens if OJ holds a rally and no one comes?
WSJ: Texas thinks about addressing their grid: https://www.wsj.com/articles/texas-lawmakers-tackle-costs-of-winter-freeze-say-more-action-needed-11622995201 . So, this is not “tackling” the problem. It’s more like a wink and a hip bump. Their basic plan seems to be hoping that it doesn’t get cold in Texas again in the next few years.
WSJ: Will baby boomers face up to cognitive decline?: https://www.wsj.com/articles/baby-boomers-biggest-financial-risk-cognitive-decline-11622942343 . Isn’t this crowd a disproportionate share of the Journal’s readership? Just asking …
Gee, the climate is changing: https://news.yahoo.com/the-consequences-of-climate-change-are-happening-now-studies-show-205340460.html . This article provides some good details on the wide variety and insidious nature of the problems. But beyond that, do people not spend any time outdoors? Anyone who looks will see the pervasive effects.
WSJ: Rahm’s COVID loss at the Memorial: https://www.wsj.com/articles/jon-rahm-covid-positive-memorial-leaderboard-11622983636 . This is an even bigger deal than the Journal notes. I should have mentioned yesterday that Rahm was the defending champion.