US pauses J&J shots over clot concerns: https://abcnews.go.com/US/us-calls-pause-johnson-johnson-vaccinations-blood-clot/story?id=77040882 (link replaced 5/31/21). There are six reported cases, all in women 18 to 48 years old. There has been one death. One person is in critical condition. Nearly 7 million doses have been administered. This appears to be a minor risk relative to the need for the vaccine, especially for people over 50 and for men (Nate Silver agrees): https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/nate-silver-says-pulling-johnson-and-johnson-vaccine-is-going-to-get-people-killed/ar-BB1fBGfy?li=BBnb7Kz . This is not expected to delay the administration’s goal of vaccinating eligible and willing adults by the end of May: https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/us-expects-to-have-enough-vaccine-supply-despite-jandj-pause/ar-BB1fBPjJ?li=BBnb7Kz .
Update: By the end of the day, all 50 states had agreed to the pause. However, pushback is growing rapidly. The risk does not appear to warrant a pause given the risks of delaying vaccinations. I therefore expect the pause to be short. Even so, it is causing chaos with vaccine appointments. We will have to see how vaccine skepticism plays out. More: https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/548062-five-questions-raised-by-the-johnson-johnson-vaccine-pause .
Vaccine clotting theories: https://news.yahoo.com/explainer-worried-blood-clots-linked-141150188.html . If there are in fact antibodies produced, they should be identifiable in blood samples. This theory is based on an improper autoimmune response. The result is so rare that genetic analysis of patients also seems advisable. As all cases are with women of childbearing age, a hormonal issue may also be involved.
US FDA to examine viral vector vaccine design: https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-johnsonjohnson-inquir/rpt-us-fda-to-scrutinize-vaccine-design-behind-covid-19-shots-linked-to-blood-clots-idUSL1N2M62RB . Note that the blood clotting issue with AstraZeneca is occurring at 5 to 10 times the rate with J&J, although it is still quite rare with both vaccines.
WSJ on J&J: https://www.wsj.com/articles/j-js-covid-19-vaccine-how-effective-is-it-and-when-will-it-be-available-11611940438 . More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-vaccine-issues-present-new-challenge-for-j-j-11618338625 . This is not that big of a deal so far. Still more: https://www.wsj.com/articles/johnson-johnson-covid-19-vaccine-pause-disrupts-appointments-in-new-york-region-11618341478 .
The WSJ take on the “limits” of vaccine trials: https://www.wsj.com/articles/j-j-vaccine-clot-issue-shows-limits-of-clinical-trials-scientists-say-11618339352 . This article is accurate in content, but in my view it does not fairly present the “limits”. The purpose of a trial with 44,000 participants is to expose (unknown) risks with a probability up to about 1 in 1,000. If you put more people in the trial, you expose more people to unknown risk. Here, the trial worked perfectly. The clotting risk looks to be less than one in a million.
J&J delays European vaccine rollout: https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-johnson-johnson-delays-vaccine-delivery-to-europe/a-57164365 . WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-seeks-to-pause-j-j-covid-19-vaccine-use-amid-clotting-reports-11618313210 .
Physical inactivity is a higher risk factor than smoking for severe COVID: https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/physical-inactivity-doubles-coronavirus-death-risk-223050452.html . Considering that COVID is a respiratory disease that attacks the lungs, this is a shocking result.
Current US case distribution: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-unvaccinated-america-reopening-191911862.html . It is informative to compare the map in this article with a map of US population density by county: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:US_counties_by_population_density.png . The article’s map shows current outbreaks are in areas with low population density. These are rural areas with significant vaccine skepticism. It would not take much supply to surge vaccines in these areas, but that might not have much effect.
Conflicting research on the UK variant: https://consumer.healthday.com/sb-4-13-u-k-variant-covid-wont-trigger-more-severe-illness-studies-find-2652502391.html . It is generally agreed that the UK variant (and others) are more transmissible than the original strain. This is due to changes in the spike protein which increase cellular attachment. However, there is now conflicting evidence on whether the variant has a higher mortality rate for those who are infected.
Study argues NFL games lead to COVID spikes: https://sports.yahoo.com/study-takes-on-tough-question-did-nfl-games-help-spread-covid-19-005224975.html . This makes the Texas Rangers’ opening day look even more stupid.
“Celebrity Vaccination Show” Sunday: https://thehill.com/blogs/in-the-know/in-the-know/547899-biden-obamas-and-celebrity-guests-coronavirus-vaccination-tv . This really is reality TV – it’s real reality as opposed to fake reality. In some ways, we may be returning to American entertainment of 120 years ago – competing circuses.
WSJ: Canada being hammered by variants: https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-variants-stress-canadian-hospitals-11618336661 . This article misses the risk. Michigan is looking a lot like Canada. Other Upper Midwest states are not far behind. The central question is the race between the variants and the vaccines. We do not know the answer, but the US is still nowhere near herd immunity. Is WSJ still infected by the “hoax” propaganda?
Younger Brazilians fall ill in current COVID surge: https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-latin-america-56723439 . Once again, the variants are more dangerous to younger people. Our school reopenings are very risky. The research was based on the original strain.
India hits another record for daily COVID cases: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-india-cases/indias-new-coronavirus-infections-hit-record-of-184372-idUSKBN2C10DB?feedType=RSS&feedName=healthNews . Again, we have a long way to go before the end of the pandemic.
India seeks vaccine imports: https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-india/india-big-vaccine-exporter-now-seeks-imports-as-covid-19-cases-soar-idUSKBN2C00BG . This demonstrates Biden’s wisdom in attempting to rapidly vaccinate the US before global exports begin. The global surge was definitely foreseeable. The US has built up manufacturing capacity in a way that will allow us to effectively help the world.
Consumer prices rise: https://www.nbcnews.com/business/consumer/get-ready-higher-grocery-bills-rest-year-n1263897 . If this is due to temporary supply chain interruptions, it is not inflation. It is recovery of temporary costs. The real question is whether suppliers have permanently exited markets. In that situation, inflation may occur.
Is Israel sabotaging Biden’s attempt to negotiate with Iran?: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/israel-plays-spoiler-in-bidens-iran-gambit/ar-BB1fCWYi?li=BBnb7Kz . The timing of the attack certainly raises this possibility. The Israelis are playing with fire: WSJ: https://www.wsj.com/articles/iran-nuclear-program-11610564572 . More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/iran-nuclear-negotiator-says-tehran-will-increase-purity-of-uranium-to-60-11618326331 .
China steps up Taiwan air space incursions: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-56728072 .
WSJ: Wait, there’s more! Egypt seizes ship that blocked Suez Canal, demands $1 billion in compensation: https://www.wsj.com/articles/egypt-seizes-ever-given-ship-in-suez-canal-demands-compensation-11618321419 . Many ships that use the Canal were just delayed. This may have resulted in cargo or economic damage, but Egypt did not lose revenue. The logical damage claims are for repair to the Canal, costs of freeing the ship, and loss of revenue from ships that rerouted. More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/ever-given-customers-face-new-payments-to-get-shipments-moving-11618341378 .
WSJ: Fund the IRS!: https://www.wsj.com/articles/irs-chief-says-1-trillion-in-taxes-may-go-uncollectedeach-year-11618337765 . Audits are a major money-maker for the US government, and they are necessary to maintain trust in the tax system. Tax reform (simplification) would also be an excellent step toward transparency, enforcement and fairness.
2020 polling errors: https://www.politico.com/news/2021/04/13/dems-polling-failure-481044 . The key point is that results often fell outside the alleged margin of error. The problems are likely that the responding sample was not representative of the people who actually voted, and that some people did not answer truthfully. This problem extended to Senate and House races. It is by no means peculiar to Orange Julius. It is, however, commonly an underestimate of the Republican vote. WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/pollsters-say-they-undercounted-republicans-trump-supporters-in-2020-11618353142 . Door-knocking was not a real choice in 2020.
Biden Republicans?: https://apnews.com/article/some-gop-open-to-biden-agenda-7858050374c244239578f00745ba4450 . Of course there are Biden Republicans out there. They are not just Orange Julius refugees. The stimulus package followed by a major infrastructure plan will make real differences in people’s lives. The discussion is back on policies and not personalities.
Both educated voters and the disadvantaged benefitting from the new policies may become Democratic voters. The historical parallel would be FDR. That ultimately set up LBJ’s social advances. Biden is just trying to do it all at once. US demographics currently favor Democrats. Can they take advantage?
US Chamber of Congress tries to scrap HR1: https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-chamber-urges-lawmakers-to-oppose-democratic-backing-voting-bill-11618349933. This is disingenuous. A more honest approach would be to encourage all voters to participate. That’s the federal legislation, and precisely none of the Republican state legislation. Then, if the Chamber objects to certain details of the federal legislation, voice those. The suggestion that both sides are just being partisan is a McConnell talking point – it is not honest analysis.
WSJ: More muon news: https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-miraculous-measurement-of-the-muon-11618329886 . Perhaps the scientists will figure out how many angels fit on the head of a pin. Note that the supercomputers get a more accurate result than the scientists’ extrapolations. This proves something that should be obvious. Computers are better at following the rules than humans. Somehow this reminds me of HAL in 2001: A Space Odyssey. Also, HAL + one letter = IBM.
Possible newsletter interruption: Starting Wednesday (today when you receive this), the web designers are going to help me with a site upgrade that involves significant technical issues. The designers are split on how difficult the upgrade will be – consensus estimate is that the website will be down for a day or two. However, the issue causing the difficulty hampered the site for about 3 weeks last August (yikes!). I will be writing the newsletter during this period, but you may not see it for a few days – or, if we’re really lucky, there will be no interruption. See you soon (I hope).