News for March 28 — The Race Between Vaccines and Variants

The race between vaccines and variants: https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2021/03/28/982086058/u-s-is-in-a-race-between-vaccines-and-variants-says-public-health-expert . This week the variants won.

Variants in Florida double in a week: https://www.tallahassee.com/story/news/2021/03/28/florida-coronavirus-variant-variants-double-covid-vaccine-test-cases-sequencing/7039978002/ . Let me emphasize again that Governor DeMentis is an idiot. We will all pay a price for Florida’s spring break decisions, now being exported across the US.

Virus fight stalls around NYC: https://apnews.com/article/pandemics-new-york-new-jersey-coronavirus-pandemic-us-news-0c5b93c8a3fc612c354bea6ec7fc20e7 . What is the proportion of cases from variants? We cannot effectively manage the pandemic without more genomic sequencing.

Genomic sequencing in the UK: https://apnews.com/article/world-news-genetics-coronavirus-pandemic-genomics-e5f50c12490c7935d6757a96103ceab6 . Note that the UK has been developing their capability for over year. The Us has considerable lab capability for this testing but we remain disorganized.

WSJ: Vaccinating children: https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-shots-for-children-hold-key-to-herd-immunity-11616923801 . Yes, we are farther away from herd immunity until children are vaccinated. Yes, vaccination of children is a ways away. Several of the variants are notably more infectious in children. Herd immunity has always seemed nearly unattainable. It recedes in the distance as more infectious variants appear globally.

This delay in vaccinating children means that over the near term, more cases will occur in the young. This will likely reduce the mortality rate. However, as the new variants are more virulent, I would expect the age-adjusted mortality rate to increase, not decrease.

Fauci on his relationship with Dr. Birx: https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/545316-fauci-says-he-and-birx-had-bad-cop-good-cop-roles-on-trump-coronavirus-task . Fauci was pretty good as the bad cop. Birx was pretty bad as the good cop.

WSJ: The evolution of telemedicine: https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-covid-19-taught-us-about-telemedicine-11616932803 . The doctors I’ve discussed this with generally prefer in-person, because they see things they cannot see in a virtual visit. That doesn’t surprise me. Still, I would expect that 20% or more of appointments in the future will be conducted through telemedicine. More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-telemedicine-changed-my-relationship-with-my-doctors-11616942876 .

French doctors alarmed by patient surge: https://thehill.com/policy/international/545312-french-doctors-raise-the-alarm-over-number-of-coronavirus-icu-patients .

Germans worry that UK or other variants will lead to a worse surge than the country has already seen: https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-merkel-aide-warns-of-vaccine-resistant-mutations/a-57029027 . Still, they hope for holiday travel in August.

Iran starts internal travel ban to blunt surge: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-iran/iran-starts-intercity-travel-ban-amid-fears-of-surge-of-coronavirus-idUSKBN21D0LS .

Brazil’s critically ill patients are younger: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/3/28/miracle-i-survived-younger-brazilians-hit-covid-surge .

Metro Manila returned to lockdown: https://www.arabnews.com/node/1713751/world .

Mumbai (Bombay) considers total lockdown: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-india/indias-maharashtra-considers-total-lockdown-as-virus-cases-jump-idUSKBN2BK04F .

60 Minutes: Why questions remain around events in Wuhan: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-19-wuhan-origins-60-minutes-2021-03-28/ .

Scientific American’s weekly coronavirus roundup: https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/coronavirus-news-roundup-march-20-march-26/ .

WSJ: The next legislative priorities for the White House: https://www.wsj.com/articles/biden-plans-to-split-spending-plan-in-two-11616950009 . Uh-huh. The Democrats only get one more reconciliation bill this year. If the Republicans hesitate on infrastructure, anticipate a “kitchen sink” reconciliation bill.

WSJ: The Suez Canal blockage’s effect on global trade: https://www.wsj.com/articles/suez-canal-crisis-sends-shipping-lines-scrambling-for-alternatives-11616951891 . More on hopes for moving the ship: https://www.wsj.com/articles/high-tide-in-suez-canal-raises-hopes-of-freeing-cargo-ship-11616930783 . The ship also had a wind-related accident in 2019: https://www.wsj.com/articles/suez-canal-ship-had-another-accident-in-2019-colliding-with-a-ferry-11616946718 . Update: Ship is partially freed: https://www.wsj.com/articles/ship-blocking-suez-canal-is-partially-freed-11616989503 . The movement of 25 yards seems like a lot. The ship had plowed 16 feet into the embankment. Again, the Journal remains obsessed with this story.

The Elite Eight is set: https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2021-march-madness-schedule . Three of 4 Pac-12 teams advanced, with Oregon cut down by USC. It’s too bad, because Oregon (in my view) is the better match-up against Gonzaga. But the Ducks match up poorly against USC, as was shown in the regular season. The remaining Pac-12 schools face two #1’s and a #2. Still, this is an amazing run for the Conference of Champions.