COVID reinfection risk: https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/covid-reinfections-may-be-more-common-realized-why-isn-t-n1256898 . This article raises several issues which are discussed in the next section.
The three most dangerous COVID comorbidities: https://www.aarp.org/health/conditions-treatments/info-2021/covid-underlying-conditions.html . The conditions (obesity, diabetes, and high blood pressure/heart disease) all involve inflammation. Given COVID’s method of attack, it is logical that underlying inflammation increases the danger of COVID.
Global COVID round-up: https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-latest/factbox-latest-on-worldwide-spread-of-the-coronavirus-idUSL8N2C60GZ . There are considerable worldwide updates by country in this article.
WSJ: COVID-19 here to stay: https://www.wsj.com/articles/as-vaccines-raise-hope-cold-reality-dawns-covid-19-is-likely-here-to-stay-11612693803 . As we have been saying for months, the virus is https://coronavirusnewsonline.info/covid-19-spread-within-hospitals-new-york-reopens-nail-salons/ in the global population and is not going away …
WSJ: Businesses adjust plans as vaccine rollout remains slow: https://www.wsj.com/articles/slow-covid-19-vaccine-rollout-shifts-some-business-plans-11612702801 . Travel recovery by the spring seems quite dubious.
South Africa suspends AstraZeneca vaccine drive: https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-africa-south-africa-oxford-europe-a157e08e9c6f36e124a9005b0dc5fa00 . WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/astrazeneca-vaccine-doesnt-protect-against-mild-and-moderate-cases-from-south-africa-strain-11612700385 . Given yesterday’s news about the vaccine’s poor performance against the South African variant, this is not surprising.
UK variant doubling every 10 days in US: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/07/uk-coronavirus-strain-doubling-in-the-us-every-10-days-study-finds.html . There is inadequate data to draw this conclusion, as discussed in the next section. It makes more sense to simply assume the US is on a comparable trajectory to other countries seeing the UK variant become dominant.
Doctor criticizes “too soon” lockdown rollbacks: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-states-are-easing-coronavirus-restrictions-too-soon-doctor-115207270.html . I agree with the doctor. We have had this problem multiple times already with the pandemic. The question now is whether broad vaccination will substantially reduce the pandemic’s spread. We are months away from broad vaccination. The new variants are deadlier and more transmissible. This is not the time to open up.
More Americans are choosing to die at home: https://apnews.com/article/us-news-pandemics-michael-brown-coronavirus-pandemic-nursing-homes-3e51d0fe283d3075fcecf413f8ad8ae3 . This is a sad reality of being denied family contact in the hospital.
Testimony from those with long-term loss of taste and smell: https://www.bbc.com/news/stories-55936729 .
Biden says school closures are “national emergency”: https://www.axios.com/biden-coronavirus-schools-reopening-students-9901924e-24ef-4c8f-9dfc-3120acf78ec2.html . The variants apparently have significantly increased transmission among children, which voids earlier studies.
WSJ: The slow European vaccine rollout: https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-vaccine-promises-fall-short-for-many-doctors-elderly-in-europe-11612713600 .
German nursing home sees outbreak of UK variant after residents received two doses of Pfizer vaccine: https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-digest-german-nursing-home-sees-outbreak-after-vaccines/a-56491823 .
Democrats to unveil $3,000 child care credit as attachment to stimulus package: https://www.axios.com/democrats-direct-payment-children-fba4eff1-8511-4b4f-ab85-92a4d431382f.html .
WSJ: COVID’s effect on state and local budgets: https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19s-hit-to-state-and-local-revenues-is-smaller-than-many-feared-11612706030 . Note that 5 states have revenue declines greater than 10%, the two large ones being Texas and Florida, which have Republican governors. How is helping the states for their revenue shortfall a “blue-state bail-out”? Facts matter.
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COVID reinfection risk (discussion of lead article): As we know, the US has done very little genomic sequencing, a fraction of a percent of all cases. We are currently running about 1 million cases per week; the rate was higher in January. For the week of January 10, 251 cases were tested, probably less than 0.02% of weekly cases. The “almost tenfold” increase in the week of January 24 means testing of about 0.2% of cases at that time. And these are total tests. There is no indication that reinfections are being systematically flagged or tested.
We literally have no idea of the reinfection risk. We have no meaningful understanding of COVID long-haulers, and how this group may interplay with the reinfection issue. There is no tracking of variants or their spread. We have never implemented contact tracing and testing, a core principle of public health for many decades. Yet we can mail in a spit sample to Ancestry or 23&Me to get genetic analysis. We use genetic analysis in the management of many diseases, for example cancer.
What are we doing? We are now over a year into the pandemic. The US has utterly failed its management of the pandemic, which is why we will soon pass 500,000 COVID deaths. UTTERLY FAILED. This is not a hoax. Hydroxychloroquine is somewhat less dangerous than injecting bleach, but about as helpful in managing this disease.
At some point the country needs to understand that the Trump enterprise’s abject disregard of science has made Donald Trump one of the largest mass murderers in history. This crime includes the compromise of the CDC as a functioning scientific advisory entity. Meanwhile, a significant portion of the Republican Party believes the election was stolen, while all evidence is to the contrary. A significant portion of the US population (perhaps a majority) lacks any basic understanding of science, or adequate critical analytic skills to suspect obvious lies.
We have a two-party political system where each party’s Senators currently control half of the Senate. Both halves are dominated by lawyers. Yet the Republican half intends to ignore the former president’s incitement of armed insurrection against the Congress. It calls the trial unconstitutional, making a fake process argument because the substance is so obvious. It censures its members who speak up. The only obvious historical comparison is the Nazi Party in Germany, although they had a greater devotion to science on less evidence.
Blind loyalty is a pathetic organizing principle of governance in a true democracy. Relative to our capabilities, the US is currently a failed state. To repeat, the most powerful government in the world is currently a failed state. There’s almost no doubt that Biden’s team will Build Back Better. The question is whether that will be enough. The outcome is not obvious.
Yesterday’s exhortation was to hang in there. Today’s is a call to action. Take some time to think about what you can do focused on supporting a functioning US democracy. One option may be donating funds to a worthy political cause or candidate. Another may be volunteering time. Any plan certainly involves voting and voting rights. Just please make a plan and execute it. I suggest you write it down and then regularly consider your results. We have to do better, and there is no time like the present. Indeed, that’s the only thing we can control, if we choose to.
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Get out and stay out: https://variety.com/2021/film/news/sagaftra-bans-donald-trump-future-readmission-1234902707/ .
Why did Fox dump Dobbs?: https://www.cnn.com/2021/02/07/media/lou-dobbs-fox-reliable/index.html . The “sacrificial lamb” theory makes some sense given Murdoch’s prior behavior. The lawsuit looks to be a real motivator. It is unclear if Fox’s actions will resolve it, but that seems unlikely.
WSJ: Jamie Raskin and the impeachment trial: https://www.wsj.com/articles/jamie-raskin-leads-democrats-in-trumps-second-impeachment-trial-11612713600 .
WSJ: Rand Paul gets it wrong, again: https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-constitution-doesnt-bar-trumps-impeachment-trial-11612724124 . These are cogent insights from a senior attorney demonstrating that non-attorney Rand Paul needs to shut the hell up. As we have pointed out repeatedly, Republicans cling to this fake process argument because the substance is so bad for their former president.
George Schultz passes: https://apnews.com/article/ronald-reagan-richard-nixon-middle-east-cabinets-00d7789a80e6821de36c07f12e5f8d9f . WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/george-shultz-secretary-of-state-under-reagan-dies-11612719935 .
WSJ: Bucs win the Super Bowl: https://www.wsj.com/articles/buccaneers-tom-brady-win-super-bowl-11612753593 .