J&J vaccine trial results: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/29/covid-vaccine-jjs-one-shot-drug-is-72percent-in-the-us-but-less-effective-elsewhere.html . Dr. Gottlieb makes the interesting point that because variants are on the rise, any vaccine trial will show a lower effective rate than if the same trial was performed two months earlier. WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/j-j-vaccine-is-still-a-win-for-the-public-11611937523 . Still more: https://www.wsj.com/articles/j-js-covid-19-vaccine-how-effective-is-it-and-when-will-it-be-available-11611940438 . And: https://www.wsj.com/articles/j-j-covid-19-vaccine-was-66-effective-in-late-stage-study-11611925201 .
Novavax vaccine trial results: https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-55850352 . What we call the J&J vaccine is referred to as the Janssen vaccine elsewhere. J&J owns Janssen. More: https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2021-01-28/novavax-says-its-coronavirus-vaccine-is-nearly-90-effective .
WSJ: EU approves AstraZeneca vaccine: https://www.wsj.com/articles/astrazenecas-covid-19-vaccine-wins-eu-green-light-11611934054 .
WSJ: Updated vaccination technology summary: https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-vaccines-and-how-they-work-11611759029 .
Variants will raise US death toll: https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2021-01-29/coronavirus-model-predicts-new-variants-will-increase-us-death-toll . This is not a surprising result. The variant increases total deaths by 25,000 over the next 3 months, leading to total projected US deaths of 594,000 by May 1.
WSJ: Cases drop in nursing homes: https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-cases-decline-in-nursing-homes-offering-hopeful-sign-for-vaccines-11611933118 . Nursing homes reach herd immunity on a home-by-home basis.
Variants and the vaccine race: https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/overnights/536564-overnight-health-care-with-new-vaccines-us-racing-against .
The most worrisome variants: https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-most-worrying-mutations-in-five-emerging-coronavirus-variants/ . The most comprehensive naming list I’ve seen. There are some interesting details on the spike protein and less-discussed variants.
WSJ: More on the South African variant: https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-new-covid-19-strain-in-south-africa-what-we-know-11609971229 .
Months before every American can access vaccines: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/27/coronavirus-vaccine-americans-task-force-biden .
Should pregnant women get the COVID vaccine?: https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/pregnant-women-covid-vaccine-233742177.html . CDC and WHO disagree.
Enrolling black Americans in vaccine trials: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-vaccines-diversity/pandemic-spurs-quest-to-enroll-more-black-americans-in-vaccine-trials-idUKKBN29X1KI?edition-redirect=uk . The prior article shows the Catch-22 of vaccine trials: inadequate data in the trials creates uncertainties about the vaccine’s safety. The same difficulty currently applies to vaccinating children.
WSJ: US vaccination experiences: https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-vaccine-experiences-from-around-the-u-s-11611925200 .
WSJ: Updated US vaccination graphics: https://www.wsj.com/articles/tracking-covid-19-vaccine-distribution-11611355360 .
Anal swabs: testing advance?: https://www.health.com/condition/infectious-diseases/coronavirus/anal-swabs-coronavirus . Effectiveness runs into cultural norms here.
EU vaccine shortages lead to row with Northern Ireland: https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-55865539 . More: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/29/eu-places-export-controls-on-coronavirus-vaccines.html .
Germany to impose travel restrictions to slow variants: https://www.axios.com/covid-variants-travel-ban-germany-ae82f946-d73c-46e9-8551-eebfe68acbec.html .
WSJ: Regulation of social media is on the horizon: https://www.wsj.com/articles/frances-macron-calls-for-regulation-of-social-media-to-stem-threat-to-democracy-11611955040 . It seems that respect for the presidency opened social media to abuse by Orange Julius.
Scientific American’s weekly virus news round-up: https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/coronavirus-news-roundup-january-23-january-29/ .
WSJ: McKinsey & Co. embroiled in opioid promotion: https://www.wsj.com/articles/mckinsey-is-in-settlement-talks-with-states-over-opioid-work-11611884901 .
WSJ: US-Iraqi strike kills top ISIS leader in Iraq: https://www.wsj.com/articles/top-islamic-state-leader-in-iraq-killed-in-u-s-iraqi-strike-11611938069 . There is a lot going on in the world.
“An economist is an expert who will know tomorrow why the things he predicted yesterday didn’t happen today” — Lawrence J. Peter (as quoted today in Daily Pnut)
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
The GOP off-ramp: https://www.huffpost.com/entry/gop-strategist-donald-trump-exit-ramp-republicans_n_6013c38cc5b6bde2f5be3e15 . This is spot on. The courage to convict Orange Julius is not just about the GOP. It is about the existential threat to the country. How can this be clearer than having a new member of Congress who has “liked” the idea of executing Nancy Pelosi and other Democrats? Or two others who have attempted to bring guns onto the House floor? On her program last night, Christiane Amanpour remarked that these people’s behaviors would not be permitted in any other Western democracy. Of course that is right.
Calls grow to expel Georgia’s Greene: https://www.huffpost.com/entry/parkland-parents-marjorie-taylor-greene-removal_n_60134766c5b6aa4bad327825 . She’s nuts. She’s disgusting. She’s dangerous. She’s driving her “career” based on publicity and outrage. Where’s the GOP “leadership”?: https://thehill.com/homenews/house/536355-gop-has-growing-taylor-greene-problem (link replaced 2/13/21; original link was a NY Times article). More: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marjorie_Taylor_Greene .
McConnell deeply unpopular: https://www.newsweek.com/mitch-mcconnells-popularity-free-fall-he-attempts-retain-grip-senate-1565341 . Think about how much less popular McConnell is than Orange Julius. Now you have the crux of the problem confronting the Republican Party, and the nation.
Republican politicians fold: https://apnews.com/article/gop-seeking-donald-trump-support-346c6ddc007807fa7221de4f34d4de43 . The article clarified for me that fear now drives both Republican politicians and their base. That’s not a governance strategy. It is solely an opposition strategy. In turn, that may feed more violence.
Latest on House impeachment case preparations: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/house-democrats-building-elaborate-emotionally-charged-case-against-trump/ar-BB1ddVdf?li=BBnb7Kz . National politics remains focused on media impact.
FBI seeks pipe bomber: https://news.yahoo.com/fbi-pipe-bomb-dnc-rnc-supect-capitol-nike-air-max-speed-turf-185237429.html .
Jim Jordan won’t run for Portman’s Senate seat: https://www.politico.com/news/2021/01/28/jim-jordan-ohio-senate-463617 . He came to the same conclusion I did, that he wouldn’t win a statewide race. The Democrats still have an opportunity here, better than if Portman had stayed. The senior Ohio senator, Sherrod Brown, is a Democrat. He may have influenced Jordan’s decision: https://www.wkyc.com/article/news/local/ohio/united-states-senate-seat-ohio-rob-portman-sherrod-brown-democrats/95-3a414ad4-0fc3-402a-afea-09c57c9aeabb . More: https://www.daytondailynews.com/local/brown-on-why-the-trump-and-aiders-and-abettors-like-jim-jordan-should-be-held-responsible-for-capitol-riot/AJLSK4DFBRDZRJCAC5MWJNAGYQ/ .
For all its faults, the Internet is a great thing. Here we can easily see what is being reported in Ohio, even though all this background isn’t being reported nationally. But there are problems …
Revisiting this item from yesterday:
NY nursing home deaths undercounted: https://apnews.com/article/new-york-coronavirus-pandemic-nursing-homes-a6c214f4467976efdfca9ba75f8adaef . It may take years to sort out COVID mortality.
I forgot to mention yesterday that this item improperly stated the mathematics. The original headline was that the state had undercounted these deaths by 56%, based on the attorney general’s report. Even if the number is 50%, as now stated in the article, the headline was still wrong.
To illustrate, suppose the original report was 8,000 and the AG found 12,000 deaths. The 12,000 represents an increase of 50%. If the 12,000 meant the original figure was a 50% undercount, the original figure would have been 6,000, not 8,000. This is like when the news reports a 400% reduction – the percentage calculation is done wrong. It must always turn off the original figure, here the 8,000.
When I went back to review for this comment, the article had been entirely rewritten, with no mention that it was updated. Several of the initial reports repeated the 56%, just copying from Newsweek or whoever was first. But when the state pushed back, the articles were rewritten to eliminate the original error.
This illustrates the larger problem that articles are frequently updated, sometimes days later, so that the content is altered relative to my original comment. Sometimes when you wonder, What the hell is he talking about, this is often the reason why the comment no longer matches the link. The other times, you probably had reason to wonder.
Today’s “Glad I’m not him” story: https://www.abajournal.com/news/article/man-who-was-told-he-failed-bar-exam-actually-passed-and-he-blames-software . Unfortunately, this is not an isolated problem, despite what the ABA says: https://abcnews.go.com/US/15-law-school-students-told-passed-bar-exam/story?id=74558675 . This is also not a problem just for this cycle or because of the pandemic. Georgia: 2015-2016 (90 people!): https://www.abajournal.com/magazine/article/georgia_bar_exam_mistake . These are “ruin someone’s life” mistakes. What if there had been a suicide among these innocent and accomplished people? Which reminds me, 5 people died at the Capitol (and 2 more Capitol police suicides since) thanks to the narcissistic incompetent who ran the country for 4 years. The vote should be 100 to 0 to convict in the Senate.