News for December 30 — UK COVID Variant; IPO Boom

UK COVID variant appears in California: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/12/30/california-reports-first-case-more-contagious-covid-19-strain/4092714001/ . Once again, the infected individual has no recent travel history. It is now certain that the UK strain is embedded in the US population. It is transmitting by community spread. We can assume it is or soon will be nationwide. We can expect it will become the dominant strain. If we ever start genomic testing, we will have the details of this situation and could take reasonable steps to reduce transmission.

Second UK COVID variant case in Colorado: https://www.huffpost.com/entry/covid-19-variant-b117-colorado_n_5fec9e88c5b6ff747985dc17 . This case appears related to the first Colorado case.

Quirk of COVID-19 test allows tracking of UK COVID variant: https://www.theverge.com/2020/12/30/22206522/coronavirus-test-variant-contagious-uk-gene . Here we have a potential substitute for our lack of genomic sequencing.

Vaccinated US nurse contracts COVID: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-vaccine-idUSKBN2940QL . Is someone doing genetic sequencing of this infection?

UK is first to approve AstraZeneca Oxford vaccine: https://apnews.com/article/europe-coronavirus-pandemic-united-kingdom-df039995c569f6696e0b1aa3298eaf17 . The UK has moved to the “first dose” strategy discussed here earlier. WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/oxford-astrazeneca-vaccine-gets-u-k-nod-how-is-it-different-than-other-shots-11609317308 . If this vaccine is 62% effective with the other two at 94% and 95%, it stands to reason that the people receiving this vaccine should receive one of the highly effective vaccines once the initial round of vaccinations is completed. WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-vaccine-made-by-astrazeneca-oxford-is-approved-by-u-k-11609312200 .

WSJ: Tensions between AstraZeneca and Oxford: https://www.wsj.com/articles/astrazeneca-and-oxfords-bumpy-partnership-hangs-over-covid-vaccines-future-11609336498 .

China gives its first conditional vaccine approval to Sinopharm: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-vaccine-china-idUSKBN29505P .

WSJ: More on the South African COVID variant: https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-variant-in-south-africa-sparks-fear-of-faster-spread-possible-reinfection-11609358056 .

Dialysis clinics roll out monoclonal antibody treatments: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-antibodies-exclusi/exclusive-dialysis-clinics-provide-new-path-for-delivery-of-stockpiled-covid-19-antibody-drugs-in-u-s-idUSKBN2941IO . This distribution channel can reduce hospital admissions. As the drugs are currently stockpiling, this offers a path not involving a hospital admission. Unfortunately, while the drugs are more effective than a placebo, they avoid a later admission only in a minority of cases.

US continues record pace of COVID cases and deaths: https://www.wionews.com/world/us-records-highest-coronavirus-daily-death-toll-since-pandemic-started-353509 . Note that the UW model now projects over 567,000 US COVID deaths by April 1, 2021.

And record US drug deaths in 2021: https://money.yahoo.com/2020-drug-overdose-in-america-154115211.html . In addition to opioid deaths, cocaine and meth overdoses are at record levels. This suggests there is an overwhelming mental health crisis which people are exiting with their drug of choice or access.

Navy restricts travel to all but three bases as infections hit 105,000: https://www.stripes.com/news/us/navy-restricts-travel-to-all-but-three-installations-as-coronavirus-pandemic-worsens-1.656962 . Close quarters is clearly not a good thing.

Gilligan’s Mary Ann, Dawn Wells, dies of COVID in LA: https://variety.com/2020/tv/news/dawn-wells-dead-gilligans-island-mary-ann-1234876755/ .

WSJ: More on the UK’s one-dose strategy: https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-k-delays-second-covid-19-vaccine-dose-as-europe-ponders-how-to-speed-up-immunization-11609334172 .

WSJ: India’s success with masks: https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-was-consuming-india-until-nearly-everyone-started-wearing-masks-11609329603 .

Coronavirus bill started 180-day countdown on … UFO information release: https://www.foxnews.com/politics/covid-19-bill-180-day-countdown-ufo-disclosures . Thank you, Space Cadet Rubio. In a complete oxymoron, Rubio chairs the Senate Intelligence Committee.

Here is another reason to worry about the Fed’s massive bond purchases: https://www.wsj.com/articles/banks-pile-into-government-debt-setting-up-doom-loop-sequel-in-europe-11609324201 . This is a two-way street. Downgrades of bond ratings hurt both the issuer and the holder.

WSJ: IPO boom continues: https://www.wsj.com/articles/record-ipo-surge-set-to-roll-on-in-2021-11609324381 . This is yet another sign that the stock market is overvalued. There is also a supply and demand problem here. A perception that cash is burning a hole in your pocket in a low-interest environment can lead people to chase overvalued deals.

Trump’s pardon of Blackwater contractors violates international law: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iraq-blackwater-un-idUSKBN294108 . This demonstrates why pardons are normally sent through a review process at DOJ. Just in case you didn’t already understand how appalling these pardons were.

Congress easily overrides Trump’s veto of defense bill: https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/trump-lashes-out-at-gop-after-override-vote-on-defense-bill . If you still discuss politics with Trump supporters, you might ask them to explain this Trump action. He vetoed defense spending to (1) preserve Confederate names on Army bases, and (2) punish social media companies who flag his false statements. These reasons don’t make sense to anyone, Republican or Democrat. How can we have a Commander-in-Chief who is unable to provide a rational reason for his actions concerning our national defense?

Georgia Senate runoff update: https://apnews.com/article/election-2020-georgia-elections-campaigns-david-perdue-d3e0baf496360f79c867b6516151df81 . This still feels like an uphill push for Democrats. At least the information here is about turnout, which should be a more reliable measure here than polling.

A blast from the past: https://variety.com/2020/music/news/petula-clark-downtown-shock-nashville-bombing-1234876342/ . With such fierce political division, it is easy to overlook how interconnected our society has become.

Argentina legalizes abortion: https://apnews.com/article/mexico-abortion-pope-francis-argentina-bills-1117dc57fe66ff4dee5d2bab68a24646 . While the US awaits only its second Catholic president (who is pro-choice), the world continues to move away from the “orthodox” Catholic perspective. WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/abortion-once-unthinkable-in-argentina-becomes-legal-11609314445 .

Election follies continue: https://www.yahoo.com/news/gop-senator-object-electoral-college-181400746.html . WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/gop-senator-says-he-will-force-votes-on-bidens-win-11609348249 . Obviously this fails. What are Hawley’s reasons? Any publicity is good publicity. Hawley is looking to solidify his position with Trump voters. This might help him in Republican primaries for 2024, if they were held in the next 6 months. It is likely a poor long-term gamble. It also makes Hawley unelectable as president.

Besides the legal tsunami coming for Trump January 21, Trump’s base is a demographic dead end. The 81 million people who voted against Trump (and won’t forget) will suffer lower mortality than the 75 million Trump voters. The young are predominantly aligned with Democrats. So are minorities, which are growing more rapidly than the white population. The battlegrounds right now are Arizona, Georgia and Texas, all of which fit these demographic trends.

The problem for Republicans is to find issues which will win them new converts, while expanding the enthusiasm of the Trump base for Republicans other than Trump. That currently looks undoable. The only Republican advantage is that they have 4 years to dream up a new set of lies with some staying power.

TNT cuts the cord: https://sports.yahoo.com/bucks-beat-heat-so-bad-tnt-cut-away-to-broadcast-other-games-025744657.html . I’m keeping this in mind in limiting further comment on the bizarre behavior associated with Trump’s loss.