Virus mutation in Europe: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/29/coronavirus-variant-seen-spreading-across-europe-research-says.html . As mentioned here many times, when the viral load in the population increases, the opportunity for virus mutation also increases. This is another downside of failing to control the virus early.
Oxford to trial test for asymptomatic COVID-19: https://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2020-10-29-oxford-trial-new-covid-19-test-individuals-without-symptoms . The article mentions people who are pre-symptomatic, which is not quite the same thing.
WSJ: Regeneron antibody drug trial halted for sickest patients: https://www.wsj.com/articles/trial-of-covid-19-antibody-drug-regeneron-is-halted-in-sickest-hospital-patients-11604071118 .
COVID-19 brain abnormalities “common”: https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/study-finds-brain-abnormalities-common-in-covid-19-patients-155501142.html . Most common effects are in the frontal lobe. Changes may be permanent. And yes, Trump was like this before his infection.
WSJ: Hospitals under increasing stress: https://www.wsj.com/articles/latest-covid-19-wave-worries-hospitals-even-with-new-treatments-11604088932 . If we measure the pandemic by hospitalizations, the current surge is the third wave.
CDC: Household transmission is common, rapid: https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2020-10-30/covid-can-tear-through-a-household-cdc .
WSJ: Pharmacy chains will assist in COVID-19 vaccinations: https://www.wsj.com/articles/to-vaccinate-against-covid-19-u-s-enlists-pharmacy-chains-11604107495 .
Blacks have highest level of vaccine skepticism: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/10/29/covid-vaccine-black-americans-hesitancy-trials/3744257001/ .
US round-up, with graphics: https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/graphics/2020/03/10/us-coronavirus-map-tracking-united-states-outbreak/4945223002/ . Note that California and Texas have each exceeded 900,000 cases.
American parents turn to homework tutors in India: https://www.wsj.com/articles/as-covid-19-closes-american-classrooms-families-turn-to-india-for-homework-help-11603972843 .
Pandemic public messaging split widens between Trump and advisers: https://apnews.com/article/election-2020-donald-trump-pandemics-virus-outbreak-public-health-12a2015d9bb85cf13f2debcf85fb35d5 . One of these “alternate universes” will be moving to cable shortly. Election Day will tell.
Trump pushes medical conspiracy theories: https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/30/politics/trump-doctors-covid/index.html . The AMA is not amused: https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/american-medical-association-slams-trump-s-claim-that-doctors-are-making-money-from-listing-covid-19-as-cause-of-death-as-cases-continue-to-climb/ar-BB1ayW1S?ocid=msedgdhp .
Mortality misinformation from the Trump family: https://www.motherjones.com/coronavirus-updates/2020/10/trumps-just-told-his-biggest-coronavirus-lie-yet/ . As Don Jr. says, “people are truly morons”. Also: https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/523565-donald-trump-jr-claims-us-coronavirus-death-rate-at-almost-nothing . Don Jr. has a staff? What do they do?
WSJ: Work from home means more hours worked: https://www.wsj.com/articles/with-no-commute-americans-simply-worked-more-during-coronavirus-11604050200 .
WSJ: Consumer spending rises 1.4% in September: https://www.wsj.com/articles/consumer-spending-personal-income-coronavirus-september-2020-11604012444 .
McConnell does not see stimulus relief package until 2021: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/30/coronavirus-stimulus-update-pelosi-mcconnell-and-trump-talk-relief-deal.html . Um, but McConnell is projected to be Senate minority leader in 2021. So it’s just screw the people in need while I’m in charge?: https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/congress/im-optimistic-we-can-hang-on-mcconnell-predicts-gop-will-hold-senate .
WSJ: CDC will allow cruise ban to expire: https://www.wsj.com/articles/cdc-to-allow-cruise-trips-after-ban-expires-11604084351 . The CDC wanted to extend the ban until February but was overruled by the White House. So we will launch these floating Petri dishes in the middle of the pandemic. This is not just anti-science, it is pure insanity.
WSJ: Euro zone economy stalling: https://www.wsj.com/articles/eurozone-economy-soars-but-covid-19-resurgence-leaves-it-the-global-weak-spot-11604052146 .
Ballot theft charges in Florida: https://apnews.com/article/election-2020-miami-florida-elections-theft-eea1ef433f7eaa555202276268b5c9aa . To set a range here: this is not the smartest thing to do. This is also not a death penalty case.
Vote-counting rules: https://apnews.com/article/will-we-know-winner-election-night-17ab1b40d415512b495a374e68431921 . This article starts with a succinct and informative graphic on vote counting rules. Check out the battleground states mentioned yesterday: the upper Midwest (WI, MI, PA); the Big South (FL, TX, GA); and the West (AZ). When the polls close locally, AZ should have substantial results. FL, GA, MI, TX and WI should have partial results. PA is just starting to count.
Polling averages Friday noon from 538 (Biden spread): MI +8.7; WI +8.1; PA +5.1; AZ +2.7; FL +2.1; GA +0.9; TX -2.1. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/ . 538 gives Biden an 89% chance of victory, and declares there must be substantial polling error for Biden to lose. Given what happened in 2016, this is as close to guaranteeing a Biden win as pollsters will get.
The other potential surprises are Ohio (Biden -0.6) and Iowa (Biden -0.7). Among the other 41 states and DC, there just isn’t anything out there where Trump has much upside potential.
Record early voting continues: https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html . As of 11:59 pm Eastern 10/30, 87.8 million votes have been cast, 57.0 million by mail and 30.8 million in person. For states reporting party affiliation, 19.7 million Democrats and 12.7 million Republicans have voted. The Democratic advantage has jumped to 7.0 million from yesterday’s 6.6 million.
Projections have been that 150 to 160 million will vote in this year’s election. Even at 160 million, 87.8 million represents almost 55% of the total vote, with 3 days to go before Election Day. WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/mail-balloting-is-fueling-historic-early-voting-in-the-2020-election-11602591220 . More Texans have already cast early ballots than voted in total in 2016.
The details of election projection in 2020: https://www.ap.org/en-us/topics/politics/elections/ap-votecast/about .
The Economist’s model is even more optimistic for Biden than 538: https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president?utm_campaign=checks-and-balance&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_source=salesforce-marketing-cloud .
Trump may keep campaigning after Election Day: https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/30/trumps-maga-roadshow-ballots-tallied-433720 . As previously mentioned, this is a farewell tour. It will also be the kickoff of his next cable career. What will this cost taxpayers?
Madame Tussauds dumps Trump: https://people.com/politics/madame-tussauds-dumps-trump-wax-figure-in-the-trash/ . Apparently Trump’s wax has waned.