Beware of vaccine trials designed to succeed: https://www.healthnewsreview.org/2020/09/how-covid-19-drug-vaccine-decisions-might-be-based-on-little-evidence/ . This article provides an excerpt from William Haseltine’s opinion piece in the Washington Post. Haseltine is a respected authority, and his concern (emergency use approved on a too-small test sample) is worth considering.
Here is reporting on Moderna’s vaccine study protocol: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-moderna-vaccine/moderna-would-seek-limited-emergency-use-of-covid-19-vaccine-based-on-early-data-idUSKBN2681MS . Note the small numbers of study participants involved in the early efficacy reviews. Here is the full COVID-19 vaccine study protocol: https://www.modernatx.com/sites/default/files/mRNA-1273-P301-Protocol.pdf .
Here is reporting on Pfizer’s vaccine study protocol, released apparently in response to the Moderna release: https://medcitynews.com/2020/09/pfizer-follows-modernas-suit-in-releasing-covid-19-vaccine-study-protocol/ . Here is the full COVID-19 vaccine study protocol: https://pfe-pfizercom-d8-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/2020-09/C4591001_Clinical_Protocol.pdf .
Leading researchers urge Pfizer to delay seeking government approval until late November: www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-26/pfizer-urged-to-wait-for-november-to-seek-vaccine-authorization .
And here is reporting on AstraZeneca’s vaccine study protocol: https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-09-astrazeneca-covid-vaccine-trial.html . Here is the full COVID-19 vaccine study protocol: https://s3.amazonaws.com/ctr-med-7111/D8110C00001/52bec400-80f6-4c1b-8791-0483923d0867/c8070a4e-6a9d-46f9-8c32-cece903592b9/D8110C00001_CSP-v2.pdf .
Child COVID-19 mortality rate is low: https://www.contagionlive.com/news/study-majority-of-children-with-covid19-have-mild-disease-mortality-is-rare . Here is a summary of the medical theories on children’s mortality: www.washingtonpost.com/health/covid-children-deaths/2020/09/25/9df39bf4-fdad-11ea-8d05-9beaaa91c71f_story .
Kaiser: Children’s health suffers during the pandemic: https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/issue-brief/childrens-health-and-well-being-during-the-coronavirus-pandemic/ . Of note is lower vaccination rates and physician visits in spring, 2020, for children in lower-income families: www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/09/24/coronavirus-covid-live-updates-us . Here is the CMS data on these reduced visits for Medicaid and CHIP beneficiaries: https://www.medicaid.gov/resources-for-states/downloads/medicaid-chip-beneficiaries-18-under-COVID-19-snapshot-data.pdf .
Interferon deficiency implicated in severe COVID-19 cases: https://healthcare-in-europe.com/en/news/how-type-1-interferon-deficiency-hints-at-severe-forms-of-covid-19.html .
COVID-19’s impact on dentists: https://www.usnews.com/news/healthiest-communities/articles/2020-09-18/study-how-covid-19-affected-the-dental-industry .
Farm workers remain COVID-19 hotspot: www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/09/24/seasonal-farm-workers-coronavirus
WSJ: Global round-up: https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-latest-news-09-26-2020-11601111879 . New York has over 1,000 daily cases for the first time since June.
WSJ: Lights out for the poor: https://www.wsj.com/articles/more-homes-are-going-dark-as-moratoriums-on-utility-shut-offs-end-11601112601 . Remote school for the children and winter’s approach add new meaning to “utility”.
WSJ: Starting a new business now: https://www.wsj.com/articles/is-it-insane-to-start-a-business-during-coronavirus-millions-of-americans-dont-think-so-11601092841 . The common denominators among these folks are: (1) they lost their existing gig; and (2) they’ve invested their (modest) savings in their business. The upside is that most have considerable experience in their business. The downside is that the most common reason for new business failure is undercapitalization. The reality is that each needs an income to keep their current lifestyle.
A puzzle more interesting than the crossword: Go through the last article and rank the businesses by their likelihood of success. It doesn’t matter that we may never know the answer. It’s interesting to consider how to evaluate these business opportunities.
Extend the exercise: Part 1: You have $30,000 to invest. You want to invest in small businesses, and must choose 3 (for diversification). Each of these eight approaches you for $10,000. What do you do? Part 2: Your friend asks you to invest $10,000 in his/her business, one of these eight. How do you evaluate what to do? Part 3: How does Part 2 differ from Part 1 for you, if at all?
WSJ: Inflation measurement: https://www.wsj.com/articles/inflation-is-already-herefor-the-stuff-you-actually-want-to-buy-11601112630 . This article discusses another continuity problem, here the measurement of inflation. CPI is based on spending patterns from two years ago, while the pandemic has severely altered spending patterns. Thus, the stuff you want faces supply chain issues and rises in price, while the stuff you no longer want drops in price. These divergent flows have the CPI showing low inflation while the inflation you actually experience is higher.
WSJ: Chip wars: https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-sets-export-controls-on-chinas-top-chip-maker-11601118353 .
WSJ: TikTok deal nears resolution: https://www.wsj.com/articles/tiktoks-fate-coming-to-a-head-11601123700 . The article’s final sentence is a first: At a court hearing on Thursday, both sides declined to provide the judge with new information about the status or terms of the deal.
WSJ: Frayed nerves: https://www.wsj.com/articles/biden-holds-bigger-september-poll-lead-than-clinton-did-11601125200 .
WSJ: What we know about Amy Coney Barrett: https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-we-know-about-amy-coney-barrett-views-opinions-and-experience-11601154646 . The future of the Court: https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-we-know-about-amy-coney-barrett-views-opinions-and-experience-11601154646 . Today’s nomination: https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-set-to-announce-nomination-of-amy-coney-barrett-for-supreme-court-11601128552 . Really, no surprises since my original post on September 19, other than the Senate Republicans’ decision to announce they had to votes to confirm before there was a nominee.