WSJ: Herd immunity: https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-you-need-to-know-about-herd-immunity-11600780490 . You need to know more than this article. The “herd immunity” percentage rises with the infectiousness of the disease, so the 50% figure floated here is unlikely, although there’s a lot of wiggle room in “starts to kick in”. We will ultimately reach herd immunity (excluding significant mutations) by a combination of infections and the vaccine. The idea is to maximize successful vaccinations and minimize infections.
Where multiple vaccines are developed, the preferred vaccine will be the one with the highest success rate. A vaccine that is 50% successful may be administered in the first round of vaccinations. People who receive it would likely be revaccinated with a more effective vaccine when supplies permit.
WSJ: CDC panel delays setting vaccine distribution priorities: https://www.wsj.com/articles/cdc-advisory-panel-to-delay-vote-on-initial-covid-19-vaccine-roll-out-11600772401 . Since the vaccine trials are enrolling high-risk subgroups, it makes sense to see those results for a particular vaccine before determining its distribution.
Here is the treatment and vaccine tracker of the Milken Institute: https://covid-19tracker.milkeninstitute.org/ . At present, this tracker covers 316 possible treatments and 212 vaccines.
COVID-19 may damage bone marrow immune cells: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-science/covid-19-may-damage-bone-marrow-immune-cells-another-reinfection-reported-idUSKCN26C2X1 . Really horrible news.
FDA poised to toughen emergency use authorization standards: https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/09/22/fda-covid-vaccine-approval-standard/ . The article indicates that under the new standard, a vaccine approval is highly unlikely before December. The Post’s links for coronavirus coverage are apparently designed to be the longest links on the web.
WSJ: The convalescent plasma debate: https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-little-debate-on-plasma-is-healthy-for-science-11600790067 . A sensible explanation from EXPERTS.
WSJ: College re-openings fueled COVID-19 surge: https://www.wsj.com/articles/reopening-colleges-likely-fueled-covid-19-significantly-study-finds-11600776001 . 3,200 cases per day is quite significant.
Colleges are a COVID reservoir threatening to spill over: https://www.concordmonitor.com/Colleges-become-reservoirs-of-COVID-threatening-to-spill-over-36372976 .
WSJ: US round-up: https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-latest-news-09-22-2020-11600750066 . The Worldometers data has the US hitting 200,322 deaths on September 15 (one week ago). WSJ is apparently now using Johns Hopkins data.
Census response rates tied to lower county-level COVID-19 rates: https://www.usnews.com//news/healthiest-communities/articles/2020-09-22/how-covid-19-connects-to-the-census-and-civic-engagement?src=usn_nl_coronavirus .
WSJ: Data analytics meets legal compliance: https://www.wsj.com/articles/corporate-compliance-programs-hit-refresh-with-data-analytics-tools-11600767001 . This is rather ironic given all the government data manipulation we face in analyzing COVID-19 reporting.
WSJ: NYC sees expanding class sizes: https://www.wsj.com/articles/online-classes-in-new-york-could-reach-nearly-70-students-11600800407 . The underlying paradigm here seems to be delivering online classes as a temporary patch for in-person learning. Suppose there was one city-wide geometry class broadcast, and teachers and students interacted after watching the online broadcast. After all, geometry’s content hasn’t changed since ancient Greece, let alone year-to-year. This huge school system has the opportunity to take some classes online permanently (even for in-person teaching), although I don’t know what issues this would raise with the teachers’ union.
WSJ: Problems with online courses: https://www.wsj.com/articles/schools-drop-an-online-curriculum-after-teacher-parent-complaints-11600804539 . The racism and low quality complaints are backed by considerable evidence.
WSJ: Treasury, Fed appeal for more relief spending: https://www.wsj.com/articles/powell-mnuchin-testify-in-congress-on-impact-of-coronavirus-relief-efforts-11600781340 . I have not heard a cogent explanation as to why Senate Republicans are standing in the way of a new relief package.
WSJ: House passes short-term government spending bill: https://www.wsj.com/articles/congressional-leaders-debate-farm-aid-ahead-of-spending-vote-11600799412 .
WSJ: Why business will miss Ruth Bader Ginsburg: https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-business-will-miss-ruth-bader-ginsburg-11600804792 . The analysis in this article strikes me as spot-on, especially impressive as Mr. Francis is not an attorney.
WSJ: Will the Supreme Court clobber healthcare stocks?: https://www.wsj.com/articles/wall-street-has-an-obamacare-problem-11600783179 . A more immediate worry seems to be that healthcare spending increased 42% from 2009 to 2018 (3.6/2.5) while the S&P Healthcare Index tripled over a similar period. That suggests the stocks are considerably overvalued.
WSJ: Republicans look to confirm nominee before election: https://www.wsj.com/articles/republicans-to-meet-on-timing-of-supreme-court-confirmation-vote-romney-to-consider-trumps-nominee-11600783756 . Here, my prediction somewhat missed the mark. I correctly estimated that the hearings would commence no earlier than October 12, but I’m surprised that Republicans would go forward with this timing. The article indicates that Senate Republicans see this as one of their best issues. Yet 62% of Americans want the next president to make the choice. The logical conclusion is that Senate Republicans expect to lose the presidency and see substantial risk of losing the Senate, which is in line with current polling.
WSJ: Cindy McCain endorses Biden: https://www.wsj.com/articles/cindy-mccain-formally-endorses-biden-11600827377 . The only historic parallel is Democrats for Reagan, and Republicans for Biden has gone far beyond the Reagan situation. This can’t be helping Martha McSally.
WSJ: More on Nikola: https://www.wsj.com/articles/nikolas-finance-chief-defends-business-model-11600792783 . The name “Hindenburg Research” is quite ironic for a short-seller.
WSJ: Unemployed cut spending: https://www.wsj.com/articles/laid-off-workers-cut-spending-hunt-for-jobs-as-extra-unemployment-benefits-run-out-11600767001 . You really have to wonder about economists who think temporary extra unemployment benefits are a deterrent to looking for work. The article describes a recent college grad looking for work at Target. Another woman, 62, took a job with an 83-mile commute at $17 per hour.
WSJ: Palmer House another victim of economic second wave: https://www.wsj.com/articles/grand-chicago-hotel-in-foreclosure-making-it-one-of-covid-19s-biggest-victims-11600767000 . As we continue to fail to control the virus, people without savings and businesses with leverage will continue to sink.
WSJ: Pandemic snarls trade-credit insurance: https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-attack-on-unreliable-entities-is-a-double-edged-sword-for-beijing-11600767713 . The underlying issue is higher risk for lower margins.
WSJ: COVID-19 at the UN: https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-n-general-assembly-world-leaders-address-covid-19-crisis-11600790237 . Once again, America First is America Alone. WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-criticizes-china-for-covid-19-response-in-united-nations-speech-11600784687 .
WSJ: UK adds new COVID-19 restrictions: https://www.wsj.com/articles/boris-johnson-introduces-new-covid-19-restrictions-to-curb-second-wave-in-the-u-k-11600780834 . More: https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-britain-london/london-mayor-proposes-new-covid-19-restrictions-idUKKCN26C2UH .
WSJ: China’s “unreliable entities” list: https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-attack-on-unreliable-entities-is-a-double-edged-sword-for-beijing-11600767713 . This list will be ongoing news until tensions ease between China and the US. The conclusions in the last paragraph don’t seem valid if Trump loses re-election.
WSJ: Asian airlines profit from freight: https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-a-fortunate-few-airlines-profit-in-a-pandemic-lots-of-cargo-11600779463 .
WSJ: TikTok in India: https://www.wsj.com/articles/is-there-life-after-a-tiktok-ban-a-nation-goes-into-withdrawal-11600801008 . This is a surprising twist in TikTok’s potential value.
World’s biggest lockdown chokes illegal gold smuggling into India: https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/worlds-biggest-lockdown-chokes-indian-gold-smuggling-routes-2298670 .
Flights to nowhere: https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/airline-news/2020/09/18/qantas-eva-ana-offer-sightseeing-flights-despite-covid-19-pandemic/5827916002/ . What, people miss the airport experience?
September 22 is National Voter Registration Day. Expansion of vote-by-mail is the logical response to COVID-19, but political misinformation has hampered expansion in many states. Voter suppression is a disgraceful behavior in any democracy. Be sure your vote is counted, and if you vote in person, stay safe out there. And please support the rights of others to vote as well. This is the basic right of every citizen. It should be encouraged, not suppressed.