News for September 13 — Alaska COVID-19 Testing Success

WSJ: Alaska COVID-19 testing success: https://www.wsj.com/articles/alaska-built-one-of-the-most-comprehensive-covid-19-testing-operations-in-u-s-11599930000 . One of the state’s largest hospitals installed a high-throughput testing machine. So, accurate, rapid results followed. What if we had done that in every US city with a population of 5 million or more (there are 10)? And for every metropolitan area with a population over 1 million (there are 50)? These 50 areas have a total population of 176 million, or 53% of the US population. If we put 176 machines in these areas, spread for easy access for the metropolitan population, with the existing US testing capacity the testing problem would now be solved.

WSJ: AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine trial resumes in UK: https://www.wsj.com/articles/astrazeneca-covid-19-vaccine-trials-resume-in-the-u-k-11599922981 . As reported in the News for September 9, the illness, transverse myelitis, is an inflammation of the spinal cord and can be caused by a vaccine.

How soon should Santa get a shot? https://www.thewellnews.com/mall-santas-could-be-among-first-to-receive-covid-19-vaccine/  (link deleted 10/24/20 as Santas go to “touchless” appearances). As the article notes, Ric Erwin, chairman of the Fraternal Order of Real Bearded Santas, was successful in getting early H1N1 (swine flu) vaccine access for his group in 2009. More: https://winter-net.us/forbsantas2018/Just_Be_Claus/Summer_2020_Special_Edition/JBCSumme%202020_SPECIAL_EDITION.pdf . Two problems: (1) A vaccine is unlikely to be ready for distribution in advance of Christmas, and (2) Are malls and stores going to sponsor Santa events this year? Maybe early access could work for the Easter Bunny. For a really concerned Santa, the best option would seem to be to participate in a vaccine trial, where they have a 50% chance of receiving the test vaccine.

WSJ: Global round-up: https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-latest-news-09-12-2020-11599916430 . India had nearly 100,000 cases in one day, raising the possibility that they could overtake the US in total cases. At 4.8 million cases they would need to have 2 million cases in excess of future US cases to do so. As the US has plateaued at about 40,000 cases per daily, if India also plateaued and these trends continued, this would occur in a little over a month, at which time each country would have over 8 million cases, with infections some multiple of that. WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/for-doctor-in-india-coronavirus-waves-just-keep-coming-11600025606 .

Trump officials seek control over CDC reports: https://www.politico.com/news/2020/09/11/exclusive-trump-officials-interfered-with-cdc-reports-on-covid-19-412809 . More: https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/09/trump-health-appointees-edit-cdc-reports-covid-coronavirus.html . So a non-scientist is editing scientific reports to protect America from the “deep state” in CDC’s bowels … the illogic of this defense is stunning.

WSJ: Hospitals object to new CMS reimbursement regulations: https://www.wsj.com/articles/hospitals-oppose-positive-covid-19-test-requirement-for-more-medicare-funding-11599903000 . If there was readily accessible, rapid, accurate testing this argument would disappear (repeat comment ad nauseum – also see the comment on Alaska COVID-19 testing success, above).

More on inadequacy of OSHA workplace fines: https://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/ny-meatpacking-companies-covid-death-fine-20200913-44hm4oasmnhaboenvpyhzduaau-story.html .

COVID-19 restrictions move Trump rally out of Reno: https://www.politico.com/news/2020/09/13/trump-reno-rally-nevada-412990 . Clark County (Las Vegas) has 2.33 million residents, which is 74% of Nevada’s population. Reno, at 237,000 residents, has 10% of the population of Clark County.

Coronavirus revelations are hurting Trump’s campaign according to new polling: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8725533/New-poll-finds-Trumps-support-slipping-10-points-Biden.html . With so few undecided voters, this polling if accurate indicates a monumental shift and further focuses the race on turnout in swing states. Here is an opinion piece drawing a similar conclusion about the effect of the pandemic on the election: https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/516140-why-trumps-approval-numbers-may-be-soft .

Remember my comment yesterday about this stupid USPS voter’s postcard sent to Oregon? The Colorado Secretary of State thought the same thing, and she can do something about it: https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/516148-colorado-threatens-legal-action-against-usps-over-pre-election-mailers . WSJ: An update: https://www.wsj.com/articles/court-blocks-postal-service-election-mailer-in-colorado-11600020598 . Oh, DeJoy, DeJoy.

WSJ: The next Census brawl: https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-next-census-brawl-11600031203 . I was shocked that WSJ could publish such a misleading and biased piece, but then saw it was opinion issued by the Editorial Board. Oh. Rather than enumerate the errors in this piece, I suggest you just read the article and ask yourself, what would I do to achieve the most accurate count? If you do this, I believe you will see most of the arguments melt away. If not, you may wish to search “Census” on the website and see the prior threads of this conversation, including the reporting by the WSJ staff.

WSJ: Gilead buys Immunomedics: https://www.wsj.com/articles/gilead-nears-deal-to-buy-immunomedics-for-more-than-20-billion-11599936777 . Just to review the facts in the article, Immunomedics stock has doubled this year, and Gilead is paying $21 billion, more than double current market price. Analysts estimate gross sales of $480 million in 2022, which is 2.3% of the purchase price. It’s less than obvious how paying 43 times future gross sales is a rational deal for the buyer. Apparently the bet is that the drug will work safely against other cancers and that a more effective treatment for those other cancers will not come along. This still seems quite risky … WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/gileads-20-billion-gamble-11600017310 .

WSJ: Trump issues executive order on drug prices: https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-executive-order-takes-new-aim-at-drug-prices-11600041097 . As the article notes, it is widely agreed (and for much longer than 4 years) that giving Medicare authority to negotiate drug prices would be the most effective way to reduce prices in the US.

WSJ: Boeing executives defend 737 MAX design process: https://www.wsj.com/articles/former-top-boeing-737-max-officials-defend-design-process-11599959139 . According to the program manager, the process was “a success”. Quite obviously (for some time now), testing of new systems was inadequate and 346 people died as a result. Hmm, testing was inadequate and people died …

WSJ: Lack of Internet access challenges remote schooling: https://www.wsj.com/articles/remote-schooling-out-of-reach-for-many-students-in-west-virginia-without-internet-11599989401 .

WSJ: Oracle wins bid for TikTok: https://www.wsj.com/articles/microsoft-drops-out-of-bidding-for-tiktoks-u-s-operations-11600039821 . That Larry Ellison held a Trump fundraiser is rather troubling. This will be carefully examined in the White House review, right? WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/is-tiktok-getting-banned-in-the-us-its-complicated-heres-everything-you-need-to-know-11596495385 .

WSJ: COVID-19 wipes out millennials’ financial planning: https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-covid-19-derailed-my-financial-goals-11599922800 . This reminds me of when I finished school, with no debt but also no assets. My first objective was to create assets, much easier to do with a secure job. There seems to be a lot of news today suggesting the retreat of American exceptionalism. I believe the retreat is temporary; we just have to keeping seeking out the path of advancement.

WSJ: World energy future: https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-new-geopolitics-of-energy-11599836521 . Between the hurricanes and the wildfires, we must reduce carbon dioxide in the atmosphere to slow global warming, and that means transitioning away from fossil fuels as rapidly as possible. In other words, what people and science have been saying for the last 50+ years.

WSJ: Second COVID-19 wave in Israel leads to another shutdown: https://www.wsj.com/articles/israel-to-shut-down-again-as-second-coronavirus-wave-hits-11600028298 .

WSJ: Brazil update: https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-batters-brazil-but-its-leader-is-more-popular-than-ever-11599998401 .

Gee, the 2020 pinot noir has smoky undertones: https://www.statesmanjournal.com/story/news/2020/09/12/oregon-wildfires-smoke-willamette-valley-vineyards-farm-workers-health-hazard/3470394001/ . More: https://www.statesmanjournal.com/story/life/food/2020/09/12/oregon-wildfires-taint-willamette-valley-wine-grapes-smoke/5762634002/ . Based on the view out my window, we’re talking overtones, not undertones. I have to wear an N95 mask to go outside. This morning (Sunday), things were darker than ever, but part of that was light fog – rising humidity and no wind is a good thing for the firefighters. The fog burned off and we’re back to heavy smoke. This is the fourth straight day that Portland has the worst air quality in the world at 470, and obviously this is especially dangerous during the pandemic as COVID-19 attacks the lungs. The death toll is rising as investigations continue in the communities overrun by fire. WSJ: https://www.wsj.com/articles/california-wildfire-death-toll-hits-19-as-weather-aids-battle-against-blazes-11599930412 . We anticipate improvement over the next several days. Update: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/09/13/western-wildfires-monday-forecast-california-oregon-washington/5786311002/ .

Missing Michigan football: https://www.wsj.com/articles/without-a-michigan-college-football-season-ann-arbor-feels-the-loss-11599840000 . All dimensions of college town life suffer without football.