Vaccine makers plan public pledge to counter political pressure on FDA: https://www.bloombergquint.com/business/vaccine-makers-plan-public-stance-to-counter-pressure-on-fda . Excessive vaccine skepticism could defeat the herd immunity goal of broad vaccination, so this approach is wisely both scientifically and commercially.
More vaccine skepticism: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/sep/05/kamala-harris-covid-vaccine-safety-trump-election . Here is a complete list of the items on which Kamala Harris does take Donald Trump’s word: … … …
Vaccine volunteers explain why: https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/health/2020/09/02/covid-vaccine-clinical-trial-volunteers-phase-three/3374069001/ . And we still have so many who are skeptical of vaccines, or won’t wear a mask …
Warwick McKibbin is an Australian economist who runs a global economic model known as G-Cubed. Here is his prediction on COVID-19 as of March, 2020: https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2020/03/06/what-are-the-possible-economic-effects-of-covid-19-on-the-world-economy-warwick-mckibbins-scenarios/ . Note that while the mortality range of 2% to 4% was in line with the WHO’s estimate of 3.5% is too high, the contagiousness of the virus and the extent of the pandemic is grossly underestimated in scenario 4, the scenario discussed here. His policy conclusion, that governments should spend much more extensively than currently budgeted, remains valid; the obvious vehicle for a (needed) global approach is the WHO.
McKibbin updated his results as of June, 2020: https://cama.crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/publication/cama_crawford_anu_edu_au/2020-06/62_2020_mckibbin_fernando_0.pdf . (Here is the Brookings note on the McKibbin study: https://www.brookings.edu/research/global-macroeconomic-scenarios-of-the-covid-19-pandemic/ .) The update again is too conservative. The most drastic scenario, 5 (see report pages 12 and 13), places total US infections at 5.6 million for 2020 (we are above 6 million cases as of early September, and infections are perhaps 5 to 10 times this number) and deaths at 335,734 (very similar to my “gut estimate” yesterday of 350,000). Also note the Index of Governance Risk (Figure 6, page 23). Note that every country except Canada has risk at or above the United States. While this may be valid relative to governance risk as to economic management, the US government’s abject failure to contain the pandemic has generated brutal economic results. Still, McKibbin’s policy recommendations (pages 48-49) remain valid.
WSJ: US round-up: https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-latest-news-09-04-2020-11599208059 .
Latest Fauci public comments: https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/04/politics/fauci-trump-unsure-rounding-the-corner-covid/index.html .
Coalition sues to restrain US Census wind-down: https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-latest-news-09-04-2020-11599208059 . Note that the suit was filed in federal court in California, a state which has much to lose if immigrants are undercounted and is part of the Ninth Circuit, the so-called “liberal” circuit.
The US contact tracing failure: https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/09/contact-tracing-crisis-magnitude-hot-mess-america-fixes-coronavirus-cvd/?cmpid=org=ngp::mc=crm-email::src=ngp::cmp=editorial::add=SpecialEdition_20200904&rid=0E04D5187958FAC015ABAB0A9ACC44CE . When have we seen National Geographic call anything a “hot mess”?
Analysis of contact tracing and testing in the UK: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/03/test-and-trace-in-britain-how-well-are-we-doing .
Sturgis and the “hotbed” hoax: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/09/03/south-dakota-covid-19-sturgis-rally-state-fair-kristi-noem/5709042002/ . South Dakota’s state nickname used to be “The Sunshine State” (what?), which it shared with Florida. It also has the unofficial nickname of “The Blizzard State”, which it shares with Texas. Thank goodness these people are socially distanced by nature and location.
USA Today: Latest news, sort of: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/09/03/covid-19-news-dwayne-johnson-cdc-vaccine-united-airlines-sturgis/5700013002/ . The Penn State doctor’s comments were clarified by the university, as in no Penn State athletes have myocarditis: https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/03/health/penn-state-big-10-myocarditis-covid-spt-trnd/index.html .
WSJ: Retail jobs return: https://www.wsj.com/articles/retail-stores-add-jobs-as-shoppers-return-11599244193 . September 1, or earlier, is now the start of the holiday shopping season.
WSJ: Job growth moderates in August: https://www.wsj.com/articles/august-jobs-report-unemployment-rate-2020-11599166207 . When read together with the last article, the US employment recovery remains in significant doubt.
WSJ: Stock market leverage, Part 2: https://www.wsj.com/articles/softbanks-bet-on-tech-giants-fueled-powerful-market-rally-11599232205 . Recall the newsletter note yesterday on the US market’s extraordinary concentration, where Apple’s one-day decline was greater than the total capitalization of 470 of the S&P 500. One has to wonder to what extent gambling is now driving the market.
WSJ: Investors need to focus on testing: https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-testing-not-a-cure-is-what-investors-need-to-watch-11599211803 . Actually, everybody needs to focus on testing; we have to fix this “hot mess” in order to fix the contact tracing “hot mess”.
UK faces double trouble of COVID-19 and Brexit: https://www.businessinsider.com/brexit-labour-rachel-reeves-boris-johnson-deal-winter-chaos-2020-9 .
Lungs of the earth still smoking: https://www.wsj.com/articles/brazils-vice-president-admits-mistakes-in-fighting-amazon-deforestation-11599211803 .