Over 100,000 daily US COVID cases reported: https://apnews.com/article/covid-science-health-infectious-diseases-fb25f987bab09a11be31a32e832dd9de . We are in the third year of the pandemic. There is no media or medical understanding of how to analyze pandemic-related data. The media is unable (or unwilling) to understand the difference between an expert and a publicity seeker. Otherwise, everything is just swell.
We know that because of home testing, cases are drastically underreported. Estimates are one of 7 or 8 cases is reported. So we are running something like 750,000 cases a day. These cases are generating a much lower percentage of hospitalizations than was true early in the pandemic. It is true that vaccination or prior exposure is a significant part of this decrease, but also home testing (allowing earlier detection) and new prescription drugs have significantly reduced severity.
The virus continues to mutate. The effect of mutation on disease severity is very difficult to ascertain because of the improved treatment options. There is still no evidence that the virus behaves seasonally. Indeed, in hotter climates, people head indoors during the summer, and that increases risk of transmission. We know that latest mutations are continuing COVID’s rise in transmissibility. At 750,000 cases daily, the US viral load remains high, and thus the risk of further mutation (here and globally) remains high.
There have been about 190,000 COVID deaths in the US so far in 2022, which is an annual rate of 380,000. Current deaths of 360 daily translate to an annual rate of over 130,000. If this is indeed a trough before the next wave, obviously that rate will rise. The fact that one hospital currently has no one in the ICU is irrelevant. Otherwise, everything is just swell.
WSJ: At-home COVID test kit shelf life: https://www.wsj.com/articles/when-do-at-home-covid-19-tests-expire-maybe-not-as-soon-as-you-think-11656712335 .
Mechanics of medication abortion: https://apnews.com/article/abortion-covid-science-health-2d52ebf9efc6ef06f03e788fecd13013 . This is the most common procedure for abortions, and has been around since before Roe v Wade.
Banks generally agree a recession is unlikely in the second half of 2022: https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/stagflation-reflation-soft-landing-or-a-slump-what-wall-street-expects-in-the-second-half-of-2022/ar-AAYQnuc?cvid=bfe2dc79963e48408211a1fe56599997 . So the banks have the opposite view to what has been expressed here for some time. The US economy contracted in the first quarter of this year. It may have contracted in the second quarter. Two consecutive quarters is the technical definition of a recession. That is, we may already be in a recession. WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/markets-had-a-terrible-first-half-of-2022-it-can-get-worse-11656734432 .
But more broadly, inflation is not yet under control. The Fed will continue to raise rates, and that is likely to cause further contraction in the third quarter. We will see, but in my view the data does not support the banks’ consensus.
WSJ: Uvalde police chief quits City Council: https://www.wsj.com/articles/uvalde-schools-police-chief-criticized-over-mass-shooting-response-quits-city-council-11656787221 .
Texas teachers suggest teaching slavery as “involuntary relocation”: https://apnews.com/article/texas-education-slavery-fort-worth-government-and-politics-b081853905b9c871a90dafc918a17143 . You really cannot make this stuff up. Texas, of course, is the birthplace of Juneteenth, the newest federal holiday. You know, where the whites just chose not to tell the slaves they were free – for two months! It’s been 150 years, and the neo-Texans (all hat and no brain cavity) are still trying to rewrite history.